Norway Telecommunications Report Q4 2012
Business Monitor International, September 2012, Pages: 107
The Norway Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Norway's telecommunications industry.
Executive Summary BMI View: Norway's telecoms markets is one of the highest value markets in the world on a per capita basis, and furthermore it is one of the most technologically developed with high prevalence of wireless data services, smartphones and value-added services. However, while Norway's high income levels support high ARPUs, operators are nonetheless under similar pressures to their peers across Europe. The regulator, the NPT, has implemented cuts to mobile termination rates that continue in 2012 and 2013 and that have squeezed operator revenues - while the threat of consumer IP substitution also looms. The market therefore has a bright outlook but with a number of significant threats, if less amplified than in much of the rest of Europe.
Key Data:
- Mobile subscription growth has remained robust to June 2012, at 4.4% y-o-y. However, we expect this to slow markedly in the coming quarters and years due to high penetration rates.
- Monthly blended ARPUs saw a seasonal increase in Q212, and Telenor's was even up y-o-y. However,
the limits of pre-to-postpaid subscription migration and the effect of mobile termination rates is likely to see declines in ARPU return in H212 and H113.
- The broadband market has continued to grow robustly, with dedicated mobile broadband outperforming fixed. Breaking down fixed broadband subscriptions by technology, there has been a clear bias towards higher speed technology, notably cable and fibre, which compensated for the 11.1% decline in DSL subscriptions. BMI forecasts these trends to continue in the medium term.
Key Trends And Developments:
Mobile termination rate (MTR) cuts were implemented in July 2012 and scheduled for January 2013, which will see Telenor and NetCom's MTR cut from NOK0.3 per minute in H112 to NOK0.15 per minute in H113. Meanwhile, Tele2's MTR will fall from NOK0.4 per minute to NOK0.15 per minute over the same period. As a result of these cuts, we forecast a steeper decline in ARPU in 2012 and 2013, before a more gradual decline in the latter part of our forecast period. It should, however, be noted that MTR cuts can have a positive impact on bottom-line performance by reducing operating costs.
Ownership changes could change the complexion of the fixed broadband market. It was reported in May 2012 that TeliaSonera was considering selling the second largest fixed wireline provider NextGenTel.
Swedish business daily Dagens Industri reported that TeliaSonera issued an investment memorandum to potential buyers of NextGenTel, estimating the sale could raise SEK1-1.5bn (US$139-209mn). Further, it has also been reported that Quadrangle and Goldman Sachs Capital Partners have decided to sell their stakes in cable operator GET. It has been reported the sale will take place in H212 or 2013 and could raise around EUR1bn.
Reports of ownership change in the wireline sector follow the full integration of Tele2 Norge and Network Norway in Q411 following Tele2's decision to take a majority stake in Network Norway for SEK890mn in July 2011. The acquisition valued the operator at about SEK1.7bn. The integration creates the third largest operator in Norway with 1.066mn subscribers at YE11. The deal creates an operator better equipped to provide competition to Telenor and NetCom.
Executive Summary 7
SWOT Analysis 9
Mobile 9
Wireline SWOT 11
Political 13
Economic 14
Business Environment 15
Business Environment Overview 16
Western Europe Risk/Reward Ratings - Q4 2012 16
Change At Both Ends Of The Ratings 17
Table: Western Europe Risk/Reward Ratings, Q412 19
Norway 20
Industry Forecast 24
Mobile 24
Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecasts 24
ARPU 26
Table: Norway Mobile ARPU Forecast, 2009-2016 (monthly blended ARPU, NOK) 26
Fixed Line 29
Table: Telecoms Sector - Fixed Line - Historical Data & Forecasts 29
Internet 31
Table: Telecoms Sector - Internet - Historical Data & Forecasts 31
Market Data Analysis 33
Table: Norway Mobile Market Regional Comparisons, 2011 33
Recent Developments 34
Mobile Growth 34
Market Shares And Net Additions 35
Table: Net Additions By Operator ('000), Q310-Q212 36
Subscription Mix 36
Usage (ARPU/MOU) 37
MVNOs 39
Networks 40
Mobile Content/Value-Added Services 44
Table: Mobile Contract Wins 46
Mobile Operator Tables 48
Table: Mobile Market Overview 48
Table: Telenor 48
Table: NetCom 49
Europe - Western Europe Mobile Content 50
Succeeding In A Sea Of Content 52
All Eyes On Data 53
Making Machines Pay 54
Fixed Line 56
Broadband 60
Norway Telecommunications Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International
Page 5
Industry Trends And Developments 65
Regulatory Development 67
Table: Norway: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities 67
Table: MTR Glide Path 2011-2013 (NOK/min) 70
Competitive Landscape 73
Table: Key Players: Norway Telecoms Sector 73
Table: Selected Operator Financial Parameters, 2006-2011 74
Company Profiles 75
Telenor ASA 75
Telenor Mobil 83
TeliaSonera Norway 87
Alcatel-Lucent 92
Under Pressure 96
Demographic Forecast 98
Table: Norway's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 99
Table: Norway's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 99
Table: Norway's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 100
Table: Norway's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 101
Glossary 102
Table: Glossary Of Terms 102
Methodology 104
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts 104
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings 105
Table: Ratings Indicators 106
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 107
Telenor ASA, Telenor Mobil , TeliaSonera Norway
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