Peru Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q3 2012
Business Monitor International, June 2012, Pages: 98
The Peru Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, pharmaceutical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Peru's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
BMI View: Based on new historical data for Peru's pharmaceutical sales in 2010 and 2011, we have reevaluated our forecasts for the country. The total market, worth PEN3.90bn (US$1.42bnm) in 2011, is now expected to post a slightly higher five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.6%, as measured in local currency. The key drivers of growth going forward will be the expansion of healthcare facilities, the increase in government funding for the sector, a rise in volume use of generic medicines and a growing disease burden - especially in regards to non-communicable diseases. However, multinationals will remain concerned over market access barriers, with Peru’s intellectual property (IP) protection and enforcement still considered lacking.
Headline Expenditure Projections
- Pharmaceuticals: PEN3.90bn (US$1.42bn) in 2011 to PEN4.32bn (US$1.62bn) in 2012; +10.7% in local currency terms and +14.4% in US dollar terms. Forecast significantly higher from Q312 on account of new historical data.
- Healthcare: PEN19.52bn (US$7.09bn) in 2011 to PEN21.08bn (US$7.91bn) in 2012; +8.0% in local currency terms and +11.6% in US dollar terms. Forecast up from Q212 on account of macroeconomic factors.
- Medical devices: PEN897mn (US$326mn) in 2011 to PEN960mn (US$360mn) in 2012; +7.0% in local currency terms and +10.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast up from Q212 on account of macroeconomic factors.
Risk/Reward Rating: Peru’s composite score for Q312 stands at 47.7 out of the maximum 100, which is 3.3% higher quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q), but again places the country ninth out of the 17 countries surveyed in our Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs) matrix for the Americas. Peru will continue to be viewed as a moderately promising longer-term pharmaceutical opportunity, as its industry rewards and industry risks remain below the regional average, despite the favourable country component scores.
Globally, Peru is ranked 55th (up from 60th in the previous quarter) out of the 95 markets surveyed in our pharmaceuticals universe, above Morocco and below Lithuania.
Key Trends And Developments
- The authorities continue implementing measures designed to improve access to healthcare for the poorest sections of society. To this end, in March 2012, the government launched the Cuna Mas social scheme, which will cover 240,000 babies aged between three and six months by 2016. In the course of 2012, the scheme – which covers services such as house calls - will be implemented in four departments, primarily across the Andean highlands.
- In the meantime, according to the Ministry of Health, as quoted in a January 2012 edition of the Peruvian Times, non-communicable diseases (NCDs) such as heart disease caused by poor eating habits currently cost Peru as much as US$8bn annually. Moreover, figures from the Cayetano Heredia medical university show a 200% increase in the prevalence of obesity among children aged between six and 17 over the 2001-2010 period. Deputy Health minister Enrique Jacoby was reported to be concerned over the future impact of this situation on the country’s economic development, as debate over tax on junk food continues.
BMI Economic View: Our 2011 real GDP growth estimate of 6.7% for Peru was close to the full year reading of 6.9%, reflecting our view that the country's domestic demand story remains healthy. The key driver was private consumption, with most of the other growth components disappointing. Peru's strong domestic demand story will continue in 2012, although an anticipated drag from net exports means we stick to our below consensus 4.8% real GDP growth forecast. However, significant external risks to means we cannot rule out a more pronounced slowdown in growth in the latter stages of the year. In the meantime, consumer price inflation (CPI) has remained anchored at 4.2% y-o-y since the start of 2012, but we expect prices to cool as we head into the second half of the year.
BMI Political View: Peru's long-term political stability is undermined by key structural risks, most prominently associated with mining and hydrocarbon exploration in the Amazon region. Concerted efforts will be needed to address this issue - along with the ongoing problems of corruption and coca cultivation - if the country is not to be under increasing threat from populism. Nevertheless, our core scenario is for the country's ongoing export- and investment-led growth to raise living standards, creating a core of middle-class stability that will act as a buffer against other risks.
SWOT Analysis 9
Peru Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWOT 9
Peru Political SWOT 10
Peru Economic SWOT 10
Peru Business Environment SWOT 11
Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings 12
Table: Americas Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings, Q312 12
Rewards 13
Risks 14
Peru – Market Summary 15
Regulatory Regime 16
Recent Regulatory Developments 17
OTC Medicines 18
Intellectual Property Regime 19
IP Shortcomings 20
Counterfeit Pharmaceuticals 21
Trade Agreements 22
Pricing Regime 24
Government Tenders 25
Reimbursement Regime 25
Pricing And Reimbursement Developments 26
Industry Developments 29
Epidemiology 29
Non-Communicable Diseases 31
Communicable Diseases 32
Healthcare Sector 33
Healthcare Finances 35
Healthcare Provision 36
Table: Key Goals of Parsalud II In Nine Regions 36
Health Insurance 37
Clinical Trials 38
Medical Devices 39
Industry Forecast Scenario 41
Overall Market Forecast 41
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales Indicators 2008-2016 43
Healthcare Market Forecast 44
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Indicators 2008-2016 45
Table: Healthcare Governmental Indicators 2008-2016 45
Table: Healthcare Private Indicators 2008-2016 46
Key Growth Factors – Macroeconomic 47
PERU - ECONOMIC ACTIVITY 50
Prescription Drug Market Forecast 51
Table: Prescription Drug Sales Indicators 2008-2016 52
Patented Drug Market Forecast 53
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators 2008-2016 54
Generic Drug Market Forecast 55
Table: Generic Drug Sales Indicators 2008-2016 57
OTC Medicine Market Forecast 58
Table: OTC Medicine Sales Indicators 2008-2016 59
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast 60
Table: Exports and Imports Indicators 2008-2016 63
Medical Device Market Forecast 64
Table: Medical Devices Sales Indicators 2008-2016 65
Other Healthcare Data Forecasts 66
Key Risks To our Forecast Scenario 66
Competitive Landscape 68
Pharmaceutical Sector 68
Table: Peruvian Pharmaceutical Companies That Acquired GMP Accreditation In 2006 68
Foreign Industry 69
Domestic Industry 70
Pharmaceutical Distribution And Retail 71
Company Profiles 74
Domestic Companies 74
Farmaindustria 74
Unimed 76
Hersil 77
Leading Multinational Companies 79
Sanofi 79
Merck & Co 80
GlaxoSmithKline 81
Novartis 82
Pfizer 83
AstraZeneca 84
Teva (Corporación Medco) 85
Demographic Outlook 87
Peru's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 88
Peru's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 88
Peru's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 89
Peru's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 89
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power 90
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) 91
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2000-2012 91
Glossary 92
BMI Methodology 94
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts 94
Pharmaceuticals Business Environment Ratings 95
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 95
Ratings Overview 95
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators 96
Weighting 97
Table: Weighting Of Components 97
Sources 97
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