Mexico Tourism Report Q3 2012
- ID: 2200943
- June 2012
- Region: Mexico
- 64 pages
- Business Monitor International
The Mexico Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, tourism associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Mexico's tourism industry.
The Mexico Tourism Report examines the enormous long-term potential of the market, given its proximity to the US, but flags up short-term concerns about rising levels of insecurity and the negative image this is sending to potential tourists.
We examines how best to maximise returns in the Mexican tourism market, capitalising on the country’s considerable attractions and benefiting from its well established position in the region. The report also assesses the impact of the slow recovery in the US, which is feeding through to affect demand in Mexico.
The report also analyses the key domestic and foreign players in the Mexican market and the development strategies they are employing to maximise returns during the economic slowdown.
Key Findings Although Mexico has not yet released complete tourist arrival figures for early 2012, perhaps owing to the ongoing election campaign, partial results announced by the Ministry of Tourism (Sectur) in early May suggest tourist arrivals from the US increased over the traditionally strong spring break period. The ministry said US visitors to Mexico in March rose by 7.2% year-on-year (y-o-y). Given that US visitors to Mexico fell by 3% y-o-y in 2011, this is an encouraging sign for an industry that depends so heavily on visitors from its northern neighbour.
However, BMI remains concerned about the effect of the economic slowdown in Europe on arrivals to Mexico, particularly along the Mexican Riviera and in Yucatan. While the US economy is picking up, package tourists from Europe provide a significant number of visitors to Mexico. With security concerns in Mexico still high, 2011’s sluggish arrivals growth may continue in 2012. BMI will wait to assess the arrivals from the first few months of the year before revising the 2012 forecasts.
The government is now preoccupied by the run-up to presidential and legislative elections in July, in which the opposition Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) looks set to perform well at the expense of the incumbent Partido Acción Nacional (PAN). Given this political backdrop, few changes to tourism policy are expected during the campaign period or before the new president takes office in December.
Any change of government is unlikely to affect the tourism sector, with the emphasis likely to remain on marketing campaigns emphasising that violence in Mexico is limited to certain areas.
Key Changes Made BMI assessed the level of private sector investment in Mexico in 2011, concluding that its high rate of growth in comparison with tourist arrivals growth indicates improving sentiment towards the sector. BMI has removed the company profile on Mexicana airlines as the carrier now looks unlikely to be resurrected. We focus instead on Aeromexico, which has taken over much of Mexicana’s market share.
BMI also assesses the 2011 financial results for three major companies operating in Mexico: Aeromexico, Grupo Posadas and Meliá Hotels International. SHOW LESS READ MORE >
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Mexico Tourism SWOT 7
Mexico Political SWOT 7
Mexico Economic SWOT 8
Mexico Business Environment SWOT 9
Industry Forecast Scenario 10
Table: Arrivals, 2009-2016 11
Table: Hotels Data, 2009-2016 (‘000, unless stated) 12
Table: Tourist Expenditure And Economic Impact, 2009-2016 13
Inbound Tourism 14
Table: Inbound Tourism, 2009-2016 14
Outbound Tourism 15
Table: Outbound Tourism, 2008-2015 15
Market Overview – Travel 16
Commercial Airlines 16
Low-Cost Airlines 17
Global Oil Products Price Outlook 19
Table: Oil Price Forecasts (US$/bbl) 20
Market Overview – Hospitality 27
H1N1 Virus 30
Business Environment Outlook 31
Latin America Tourism Business Environment 31
Table: Latin America Tourism Risk/Reward Ratings 31
BMI’s Regional Security Ratings 32
Table: Latin America Security Ratings 32
Table: Latin America State Vulnerability To Terrorism Ratings 32
Mexico’s Security Risk Ratings 33
Latin America Security Overview 35
Latin America In A Global Context 35
Challenges And Threats To Security 36
Global Assumptions 50
Table: Global Assumptions, 2011-2016 50
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, % change y-o-y 51
Table: Developed Market Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 51
Table: Emerging Market Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 52
Developed States 52
Table: Developed States, Real GDP Growth Forecast, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) 53
Emerging Markets 53
Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth Forecast, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) 54
Table: BMI And Bloomberg Consensus, Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2012-2013 (%) 55
Company Profiles 56
Grupo Posadas 58
Meliá Hotels International 59
BMI Methodology 60
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 60
Tourism Industry 60
Tourism Ratings – Methodology 61
Table: Tourism Risk/Reward Indicators 62
Table: Weighting Of Components 63