Iran Freight Transport Report Q3 2012
Business Monitor International, June 2012, Pages: 63
The Iran Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, freight transportation associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Iran's freight transportation industry.
BMI is forecasting a recession in Iran in 2012 and 2013 as the Middle Eastern country struggles to maintain itself economically in the face of sanctions against its crude oil exports, the primary source of revenue in the country. Despite this BMI's freight transport team projects growth at the country's primary container port Bandar Abbas, albeit at less than 1%. The other freight modes of air, rail and road are to experience similarly sedate growth this year.
Headline Industry Data
- 2012 Port of Bandar Abbas throughput growth forecast is 0.6% and is forecast to average 3.0% a year to 2016.
- 2012 rail freight tonnes-km growth forecast is 1.5% and is projected to average 1.9% over the forecast period.
- 2012 air freight tonnes-km growth forecast is 0.6% and will average 0.7% a year to 2016.
- 2012 total trade is forecast to experience a real contraction of 14.5% in 2012, followed by a contraction of 8.0% in 2013, before returning to growth in 2014.
Key Industry Trends Iran Agrees To Connect Tajikistan To Ocean Iran's foreign minister Ali-Akbar Salehi revealed on March 8 that the government has agreed to link Tajikistan with the ocean, with the aim of enhancing the landlocked country's trade activities. During a meeting with his Tajikistani counterpart, Hamrokhon Zarif, Salehi said the Iranian government would help the capital, Dushanbe, improve its transit roads. Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had earlier commented that Tehran and Dushanbe share common languages, religions and cultural similarities.
Iran Air To Sell Half Of Its Shares Farhad Parvaresh, the managing director of Iran's state-owned flag carrier Iran Air, announced on February 26 2012 that the company intends to sell a 50% plus one share stake by the end of the current Iranian calendar year (March 19 2012). The total value of the stake is currently worth IRR14.4trn (USD1.16bn), Parvaresh added.
2012 Political Impact On Crude Oil Shipping Emanating From Iran BMI believes that the latest round of sanctions imposed upon Iran, which are aimed specifically at the country's crude oil exports, including its transportation, will shake up the crude oil tanker sector in 2012.
Tankers operating between Iran and Japan, South Korea and India will be the most affected as vessel insurance dries up and these countries look to comply with the spirit of the Western sanctions.
Key Risks To Outlook There are numerous risks to our outlook and forecasts for Iran, largely stemming from the country's alleged nuclear weapons development programme, and the effect the Western sanctions targeting this have on the country's trade and economy. Elections in March 2012 add an extra element of risk over the coming quarter should they result in political violence and Arab Spring type protests. Equally, should Iran return to negotiations in a significant manner, and sanctions are slackened, then upside risk could come into play.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Iran Freight Transport Industry SWOT 7
Iran Political SWOT 8
Iran Economic SWOT 9
Iran Business Environment SWOT 10
Industry Trends And Developments 11
Rail 11
Air 12
Maritime 12
Market Overview 16
Industry Forecast 21
Macroeconomic Outlook 21
Maritime Freight 22
Table: Maritime Freight, 2009-2016 23
Air Freight 23
Table: Air Freight, 2008-2016 24
Rail Freight 25
Table: Rail Freight, 2008-2016 25
Road Freight 26
Table: Road Freight, 2008-2016 26
Trade 26
Table: Trade Overview, 2008-2016 26
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2008-2016 (US$mn) 27
Table: Iran's Main Import Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn) 28
Table: Iran's Main Export Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn) 28
Global Oil Products Price Outlook 29
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, 2010-2016 29
Political Outlook 37
Domestic Politics 37
Table: Iran’s Political Overview 39
Long-Term Political Outlook 40
Macroeconomic Outlook 45
Table: Iran - Economic Activity, 2011-2016 47
Company Profiles 48
NITC 48
Islamic Republic Of Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL) 52
Iran Air Cargo 55
Country Snapshot: Iran Demographic Data 57
Table: Iran's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 58
Table: Iran's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 59
Table: Iran's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 60
Table: Iran's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 60
BMI Methodology 61
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 61
Transport Industry 61
Sources 62
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