Greece Agribusiness Report Q3 2012
Business Monitor International, June 2012, Pages: 71
The Greece Agribusiness service provides proprietary medium term price forecasts for key commodities, including corn, wheat, rice, sugar, cocoa, coffee, soy and milk; in addition to newly-researched competitive intelligence on leading agribusiness producers, traders and suppliers; in-depth analysis of latest industry developments; and essential industry context on Greece's agribusiness service.
BMI View: The outlook for Greek agriculture remains bleak. Across almost all product categories analysed within the country, we are forecasting flat or declining output as the dire macroeconomic situation and tough credit conditions continue to take their toll. We expect smaller producers to remain under enormous pressure, although the impact will be felt across the production spectrum. Over the medium term, we are somewhat optimistic about the Greek dairy sector, with this outlook largely predicated on prospects for exporting to high-growth emerging markets.
Key Forecasts
- We have revised down our forecast for 2011/12 Greek sugar production and now expect output growth of 12.0%, down from a previous forecast of 20% growth. A lack of investment, weak credit conditions and deteriorating domestic demand will continue to weigh on output.
- We have also revised down our forecast for 2012/13 cheese production, now forecasting 1.5% growth compared with a previous forecast of 4.3% growth. While we expect emerging market demand for Greek dairy products to help to sustain investment in the sector, tough operating conditions will keep growth to a minimum.
- Similarly, we have revised down our forecasts for Greek cheese consumption. We previously expected 1.5% growth in cheese demand in 2013; however, we now expect demand to remain flat. With dairy playing a significant part in the Greek diet, we note that demand is slightly more inelastic. Nonetheless, consumption will be hit by economic weakness.
- We have left our grains consumption forecasts unchanged. We maintain a fairly uninspiring growth outlook, with grains demand largely linked to our livestock production forecasts.
- We expect livestock production to remain under pressure and have maintained our growth forecasts for this quarter. Poultry, owing to its relative affordability compared with pork and poultry, will be the outperformer in both production and consumption terms.
Industry Developments The macroeconomic outlook for Greece has deteriorated further in recent weeks. The Greek parliamentary election held on May 6 failed to provide New Democracy and the Panhellenic Socialist Movement with sufficient seats to form a credible and workable government. The scenarios from here are bleak. A failure of the previous government partners to broker a deal with a smaller party could see a coalition of radical anti-austerity parties take hold, or more likely a fresh election with an equally uncertain result. Either way, the likelihood of Greece staying inside the eurozone looks ever more untenable.
Amid a very bleak production and consumption outlook, we do note that we have a fairly positive medium-term outlook for the Greek dairy sector, largely based on its international potential, particularly in high-growth emerging markets. Greek dairy manufacturers have already enjoyed a degree of international success, and weak domestic demand conditions are only accelerating their international expansion.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Greece Agriculture SWOT 7
Greece Business Environment SWOT 8
Supply Demand Analysis 9
Greece Grains Outlook 9
Table: Greece Wheat Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 9
Table: Greece Corn Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 10
Table: Greece Barley Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 10
Table: Greece Wheat Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 11
Table: Greece Corn Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 12
Table: Greece Barley Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 12
Greece Dairy Outlook 13
Table: Greece Milk Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 14
Table: Greece Butter Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 14
Table: Greece Cheese Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 14
Table: Greece Milk Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 17
Table: Greece Butter Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 17
Table: Greece Cheese Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 17
Greece Livestock Outlook 18
Table: Greece Poultry Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 18
Table: Greece Pork Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 19
Table: Greece Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 19
Table: Greece Poultry Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 21
Table: Greece Pork Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 21
Table: Greece Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 22
Greece Sugar Outlook 23
Table: Greece Sugar Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 23
Table: Greece Sugar Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 24
Commodity Price Analysis 26
Monthly Softs Update 26
Cocoa: Signs Of Life 27
Coffee: Holding Key Support 29
Palm Oil: Uptrend Intact 31
Sugar: Watching Brazilian Yields 32
Cotton: Downside Risks 34
Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 35
Monthly Grains Update 36
Wheat: Upside Risks Materialising 37
Corn: Moderation In Place 39
Soybean: Looking Weak 41
Rice: Temporary Strength 43
Commodity Performance 44
Downstream Analysis 45
Consumer Outlook 45
Food 46
Food Consumption 46
Table: Food Consumption Indicators, 2009-2016 47
Prepared/Canned Food 47
Table: Canned Food Sales, 2009-2016 48
Table: Pasta Production And Sales, 2009-2016 48
Table: Meat Production And Sales, 2009-2016 49
Table: Frozen Fruit & Vegetables Production And Sales, 2009-2016 50
Table: Baked Goods Production And Sales, 2009-2016 52
Table: Jams And Jellies Production And Sales, 2009-2016 53
Dairy 53
Table: Dairy Production And Sales, 2009-2016 54
Confectionery 57
Table: Confectionery Sales, 2009-2016 57
Trade 58
Table: Food & Drink Trade, 2009-2016 59
Mass Grocery Retail 60
Table: MGR Sales, 2009-2016 61
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format, 2010 And 2010 61
Macroeconomic Outlook 61
Table: Greece - Economic Activity, 2011-2016 63
Greece Demographic Outlook 64
Greece's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 65
Greece's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 66
Greece's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 67
Greece's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 67
Our Forecast Modelling
68
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 68
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