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India Defence and Security Report Q4 2012 - Product Image

India Defence and Security Report Q4 2012

  • Published: September 2012
  • Region: India
  • 102 pages
  • Business Monitor International

The India Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on India's defence and security industry.

Executive Summary BMI’s India Defence & Security Report for Q412 examines the country’s strategic position in the Asian region and the wider world. It also provides an overview of the contemporary geopolitical challenges facing the country, and the challenges it may face in the future.

This quarter’s report examines the trends occurring in the country’s current and future defence procurement, and the order of battle across its armed forces. The report’s general conclusion is that there are two sides to the Indian defence story. On the one hand, India remains the world’s largest importer of weaponry, and is moving ahead with the procurement of some highly advanced systems. On the other hand, structural weaknesses within the Indian defence bureaucracy means that procurement programmes remain prone to lengthy delays and overspend, while the local defence READ MORE >

Executive Summary 5

SWOT Analysis 7

India Security SWOT 7

India Defence Industry SWOT 8

India Political SWOT 9

India Economic SWOT 10

India Business Environment SWOT 11

Global Political Outlook 12

No Respite From Political Risks 12

Global Flashpoints: Eurozone, Iran, Syria, Afghanistan, Korea 12
Table: Election Timetable 15

Wild Cards To Watch 20

South East Asia Security Overview 23

The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s 23

South East Asia In A Global Context 23

Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security 23

Main Islamist Militant Groups In South East Asia 26

Other Regional Threats 30

Sino-US Rivalry In South East Asia 32

The Outlook For South East Asia 34

Security Risk Analysis 35
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings 35
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 36

India’s Security Ratings 36

Sino-US Power Struggle To Intensify Over The Coming Decade 38

Chinese Influence In Asia: A SWOT Analysis 39

US Influence In Asia: A SWOT Analysis 40

Does China Seek To 'Dominate' Asia? 41

Do Asian States Have To Choose Between China And The US? 41
Table: Asian States And Their Relationships With China 43

Emerging Geopolitical Patterns 45

Political Overview 49

Domestic Politics 49

Time To Stand And Deliver 49

Long-Term Political Outlook 50

The Test Of Rising Prosperity 50

India Security Overview 55

Internal Security Situation 55

Religion 56

Assam 56

Nagaland 57

Maoists 57

Refugees 59

External Security Situation 60

International Terrorism 60

Border Disputes 61

India Defence & Security Report Q4 2012

© Business Monitor International Ltd

Page 4

Armed Forces And Government Expenditure 67

Armed Forces 67

International Deployments 70
Table: India Deployments 70

Joint Exercises 70

Weapons Of Mass Destruction 70
Table: Indian Nuclear-Capable Delivery Vehicles 72

Market Overview 73

Arms Trade Overview 75

Industry Trends And Developments 76

Procurement Trends And Developments 79

Competitive Landscape 82

Industry Forecast Scenario 83
Table: India’s Armed Forces, 2000-2009 (’000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) 83
Table: India’s Manpower Available For Military Service, 2009-2016 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) 83

Defence Expenditure 84
Table: India’s Defence Expenditure, 2009-2016 85
Table: India’s Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2009-2016 (US$mn) 86

Defence Trade 86
Table: India’s Defence Exports, 2009-2016 (US$mn) 87
Table: India’s Defence Imports, 2009-2016 (US$mn) 87
Table: India’s Defence Trade Balance, 2009-2016 (US$mn) 87

Key Risks To our Forecast Scenario 88

Macroeconomic Forecast 88

Economic Growth: Down But Not Out 88

Company Profiles 92

BAE-HAL Software Ltd 92

Bharat Dynamics Ltd (BDL) 93

Bharat Electronics Ltd (BEL) 94

Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) 95

Honeywell International India 97

Ordnance Factories (OF) 98

Rolls-Royce International 99

BMI Methodology 100

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 00

Defence Industry 00

Sources 01

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