India Defence and Security Report Q4 2012
Business Monitor International, September 2012, Pages: 102
The India Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on India's defence and security industry.
Executive Summary BMI’s India Defence & Security Report for Q412 examines the country’s strategic position in the Asian region and the wider world. It also provides an overview of the contemporary geopolitical challenges facing the country, and the challenges it may face in the future.
This quarter’s report examines the trends occurring in the country’s current and future defence procurement, and the order of battle across its armed forces. The report’s general conclusion is that there are two sides to the Indian defence story. On the one hand, India remains the world’s largest importer of weaponry, and is moving ahead with the procurement of some highly advanced systems. On the other hand, structural weaknesses within the Indian defence bureaucracy means that procurement programmes remain prone to lengthy delays and overspend, while the local defence industry continues to underperform.
However, some important reforms introduced in August 2012 could help to improve India’s defence industry landscape. In particular, new offset rules should make it simpler for foreign contractors selling into the Indian market. Further reforms are needed, but there are already some positive signs. For example, Pipavav, a private-sector shipbuilder, announced India’s biggest ever defence export contract in August – a US$450mn deal to sell offshore patrol vessels to an undisclosed African customer. The Ministry of Defence (MoD) has also announced a tender for 56 tactical transport aircraft worth US$2.18bn, and has stipulated that it wants to hand the contract to a local private-sector aerospace company teamed with a foreign contractor.
The report also places India’s military modernisation efforts in the context of its geopolitical relations with China, Pakistan and the United States in particular. It notes that relations with all three countries are currently relatively good by historical standards. However, tensions with China and Pakistan remain,
while India is wary of moving too close to Washington. On a recent visit to India, US deputy Defense Secretary Ashton Carter also appealed to India to move forwards with the reform of its defence sector,
arguing that India’s over-complex bureaucracy was impeding US-India defence co-operation. The report also discusses the growing tension between the government and the military, with questions being raised about the preparedness of the army in particular. The appointment of a new army chief in June may be a turning point.
Over the last quarter BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
- The updates to India’s defence industry regulations and their implications, combined with the visit of Ashton Carter, are discussed in detail.
- New and ongoing procurement programmes are discussed and updated. Some Indian programmes, such as the procurement of the Dassault Rafale, have made important progress;
others, such as the construction of two indigenous aircraft carriers, face new and lengthy delays.
- The most recent developments in India’s strategic rivalry with China are discussed. New Delhi will soon host the Chinese defence minister, at his request, and has also resumed joint military exercises with the Chinese. However, points of contention remain, with India concerned about growing Chinese influence in areas that it has traditionally regarded as its strategic backyard.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
India Security SWOT 7
India Defence Industry SWOT 8
India Political SWOT 9
India Economic SWOT 10
India Business Environment SWOT 11
Global Political Outlook 12
No Respite From Political Risks 12
Global Flashpoints: Eurozone, Iran, Syria, Afghanistan, Korea 12
Table: Election Timetable 15
Wild Cards To Watch 20
South East Asia Security Overview 23
The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s 23
South East Asia In A Global Context 23
Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security 23
Main Islamist Militant Groups In South East Asia 26
Other Regional Threats 30
Sino-US Rivalry In South East Asia 32
The Outlook For South East Asia 34
Security Risk Analysis 35
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings 35
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 36
India’s Security Ratings 36
Sino-US Power Struggle To Intensify Over The Coming Decade 38
Chinese Influence In Asia: A SWOT Analysis 39
US Influence In Asia: A SWOT Analysis 40
Does China Seek To 'Dominate' Asia? 41
Do Asian States Have To Choose Between China And The US? 41
Table: Asian States And Their Relationships With China 43
Emerging Geopolitical Patterns 45
Political Overview 49
Domestic Politics 49
Time To Stand And Deliver 49
Long-Term Political Outlook 50
The Test Of Rising Prosperity 50
India Security Overview 55
Internal Security Situation 55
Religion 56
Assam 56
Nagaland 57
Maoists 57
Refugees 59
External Security Situation 60
International Terrorism 60
Border Disputes 61
India Defence & Security Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd
Page 4
Armed Forces And Government Expenditure 67
Armed Forces 67
International Deployments 70
Table: India Deployments 70
Joint Exercises 70
Weapons Of Mass Destruction 70
Table: Indian Nuclear-Capable Delivery Vehicles 72
Market Overview 73
Arms Trade Overview 75
Industry Trends And Developments 76
Procurement Trends And Developments 79
Competitive Landscape 82
Industry Forecast Scenario 83
Table: India’s Armed Forces, 2000-2009 (’000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) 83
Table: India’s Manpower Available For Military Service, 2009-2016 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) 83
Defence Expenditure 84
Table: India’s Defence Expenditure, 2009-2016 85
Table: India’s Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2009-2016 (US$mn) 86
Defence Trade 86
Table: India’s Defence Exports, 2009-2016 (US$mn) 87
Table: India’s Defence Imports, 2009-2016 (US$mn) 87
Table: India’s Defence Trade Balance, 2009-2016 (US$mn) 87
Key Risks To our Forecast Scenario 88
Macroeconomic Forecast 88
Economic Growth: Down But Not Out 88
Company Profiles 92
BAE-HAL Software Ltd 92
Bharat Dynamics Ltd (BDL) 93
Bharat Electronics Ltd (BEL) 94
Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) 95
Honeywell International India 97
Ordnance Factories (OF) 98
Rolls-Royce International 99
BMI Methodology 100
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 00
Defence Industry 00
Sources 01
Customers who bought this item also bought
All rights reserved. © Copyright 2013 Research and Markets WWW6
Terms and Conditions Privacy Policy Publishers Employment Opportunities Site Map Link to us Webmaster Affiliate Network
