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Indonesia Autos Report Q3 2012
Business Monitor International, June 2012, Pages: 49
The Indonesia Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Indonesia's automotive industry.
BMI’s Indonesia Defence & Security Report for Q312 examines the country’s strategic position in the South East Asian region and the wider world. It provides an overview of the contemporary geopolitical challenges facing the country, and the challenges it may face in the future.
The report examines the trends occurring in the country’s current and future defence procurement, and the order of battle across its armed forces. The report’s general conclusion is that after many years of strategic isolation, Indonesia is emerging as an important player in the Asia Pacific region. In keeping with this development, the Indonesian military, after years of underinvestment and foreign vilification over its activities in East Timor, is starting to reap the rewards of an increasing defence budget and also of the country’s improving international reputation.
In particular, the report details how good relations with countries such as Australia, South Korea, the UK and the US are translating into new avenues for defence materiel. Much of it second hand but has been provided on favourable terms to a country that now has the image of an attractive international partner. Russia also remains a key weapon systems provider.
However, the report also makes it clear that there is still progress to be made in Indonesia. The country’s internal security environment remains less benign than its external security position. In particular, misguided government policies in Papua continue to make the region highly tense, with violence continuing there in 2012. The threat from Islamist terrorism currently appears diminished, though.
Over the last quarter BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
- Jakarta has softened its stance on the deployment of US Marines to Darwin – a move it was initially sceptical about. The March 2+2 summit of Australian and Indonesian defence and foreign ministers appears to have reassured the Indonesian side that an increased US presence will bring benefits to the region. Military co-operation, including the transfer of Australian C- 130 cargo planes to Jakarta, was also discussed.
- New procurement objectives have emerged over the last quarter: these include the possible purchase of OPVs from Brunei, and ongoing interest on the part of the MoD in acquiring main battle tanks from the Netherlands in spite of parliamentary objections.
- Issues of domestic concern are also addressed. Chiefly these relate to continuing unrest in Papua and the absence of a political programme to help solve the problems there, along with the deterioration of the relationship between Indonesia’s army and its police, whose officers have increasingly become involved in violent, and sometimes fatal, confrontations. The government’s decision to use the army to police recent protests over rising fuel prices has also emerged as an area of concern.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Indonesia Autos Industry SWOT 6
Indonesia Political SWOT 7
Indonesia Economic SWOT 8
Indonesia Business Environment SWOT 9
Global Autos Update: End Of First Quarter Brings Both Positive And Negative Revisions As Key Trends 10
Table: Passenger Car Sales (Units), Jan-March 2012 10
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings 13
Table: Business Environment Ratings – Autos Industry Asia Pacific 16
Regional Overview 17
Honda May Have Breakthrough In Reducing Rare Earth Reliance 17
Macroeconomic Forecast 19
Table: Indonesia - Economic Activity 22
Industry Forecast Scenario 23
Table: Indonesia Automotive Historical Data & Forecasts 23
Table: Indonesia Automotive Market: Trade 26
Industry Developments 26
Passenger Vehicles – Forecast and Analysis 28
Table: Indonesia Automotive Market: Passenger Sales And Production 28
Industry Developments 28
Premium Segment 30
Commercial Vehicles – Forecast and Analysis 32
Table: Indonesia Automotive Market: Commercial Vehicles 32
Indonesia Automotive Market: Motorcycles 34
Company Developments 35
Company Monitor 38
Asia Key To Delphi Post-Bankruptcy Growth But Not Without Competition 38
Company Profiles 41
Toyota Astra Motor 41
Suzuki Indomobil Motor 42
Indonesia Demographic Outlook 43
Table: Indonesia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 44
Table: Indonesia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 45
Table: Indonesia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 46
Table: Indonesia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 46
BMI Methodology 47
How We Generate Our Forecasting Model 47