Colombia Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q3 2012
Business Monitor International, June 2012, Pages: 93
The Colombia Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, pharmaceutical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Colombia's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
BMI View: The Colombian pharmaceutical market is the fifth-largest in Latin America, a position that is expected to continue to solidify over the forecast period. The country benefits from an improving regulatory position and has made itself as a distribution centre for multinational firms operating in the Andean region, placing the country in a good position to compete in the pharmaceutical exports sector regionally.
Headline Expenditure Projections
- Pharmaceuticals: COP7,076bn (US$3.83bn) in 2011 to COP7,505bn (US$4.17bn) in 2012; +6.1% growth in local currency terms and +8.9% in US dollar terms. Forecast up slightly since Q212 due to macroeconomic factors.
- Healthcare: COP29,953bn (US$16.2bn) in 2011 to COP30,634bn (US$17.0bn) in 2012; +2.3% growth in local currency terms and +5.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast up slightly since Q212 due to macroeconomic factors.
- Medical devices: COP1,901bn (US$1.03bn) in 2011 to COP2,096bn (US$1.17bn) in 2012; +10.3% growth in local currency terms and +13.2% in US dollar terms. Forecast up slightly since Q212 due to macroeconomic factors.
Risk/Reward Rating: Colombia remains in seventh place in the Americas Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs), scoring 53.9 out of 100. Colombia scores above the regional average in all subcategories. The country’s main advantages include its large population size and the immaturity of its pharmaceutical market. Furthermore, the removal of Colombia from the watch list in Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America (PhRMA)’s Special 301 submission for 2012 suggests the country’s regulatory risk profile is improving.
Key Trends And Developments
- In April 2012, Eurofarma, Brazil’s third-largest drugmaker, acquired a manufacturing plant from Schering Plough (a subsidiary of Merck & Co) in Colombia. Over the medium term, Eurofarma intends to market and sell its own drugs in Colombia. The acquisition is in line with the company’s aims of establishing itself as a pan-Latin American drugmaker and covering 90% of Latin America by 2015.
- In a measure likely to support sales in Colombia’s largest pharmaceutical export market, the Venezuelan government introduced new measures to assist exports from Colombia’s healthcare sector in February 2012. The move is part of an effort by the Venezuelan government to encourage bilateral trade between the countries. The Venezuelan government has been exempt from paying VAT and other tariffs and tax rates on importing goods and materials from Colombia for five years. The exemption is applicable on all products from Colombia, including pharmaceutical, surgical and medical supplies and equipment, as well as on staff to be obtained by that portfolio.
BMI Economic View: We remain positive about Colombia’s growth story in 2012 due to strong outlooks for the infrastructure and oil and gas sectors, as well as private consumption. Still, we anticipate a slight moderation in real GDP growth following a very strong 2011, in line with our 4.7% growth forecast. That said, we are neutral across asset classes for Colombia as exceptionally strong performances in the year to date have led us to question how much further the country’s assets can go over the next six months.
BMI Political View: Despite strong approval ratings (62% in February according to a Gallup Colombia poll) and robust economic growth, President Juan Manuel Santos recognises that major policy objectives, including strong economic growth and social development, depend on the government’s ability to stem rising violence and shore up the country’s security situation. Substantial deterioration in the security situation would pose a threat to the country’s robust growth and investment outlooks, while also jeopardising Santos’s ability to follow through on major policy goals. These factors inform our view that the administration will take a hardline approach to national security and defence again in 2012.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Colombia Pharmaceutical And Healthcare Industry SWOT 7
Colombia Political SWOT 8
Colombia Economic SWOT 8
Colombia Business Environment SWOT 9
Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings 10
Table: Americas Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings, Q312 10
Rewards 10
Risks 11
Colombia – Market Overview 13
Regulatory Regime 14
Intellectual Property Environment 15
IP Shortcomings 17
Counterfeit Pharmaceuticals 17
US Free Trade Agreement 19
Table: Colombia-US FTA Mechanisms Relevant To Intellectual Property 20
Pricing And Reimbursement 21
Other Regulatory Issues 23
Industry Developments 25
Epidemiology 25
Public Health Developments 26
Healthcare Sector 28
Healthcare Insurance 29
Private Health Insurance 31
Healthcare Insurance Funding 32
Emergency Healthcare Reform 32
Medical Tourism 33
Pharmaceutical Retail 34
Clinical Trials 34
Medical Devices 35
Industry Forecast Scenario 37
Overall Market Forecast 37
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, 2008-2016 38
Key Growth Factors – Industry 39
Table: Overall Healthcare Expenditure, 2008-2016 41
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure, 2008-2016 42
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure, 2008-2016 42
Key Growth Factors – Macroeconomic 43
Table: Colombia Economic Activity, 2011-2016 46
Prescription Drug Market Forecast 47
Table: Prescription Drug Sales, 2008-2016 48
Patented Drug Market Forecast 49
Table: Patented Drug Sales, 2008-2016 50
Generic Drug Market Forecast 51
Table: Generic Drug Sales, 2008-2016 52
OTC Medicine Market Forecast 53
Table: OTC Medicine Sales, 2008-2016 54
Medical Device Market Forecast 55
Table: Medical Device Sales, 2008-2016 56
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast 57
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade, 2009-2016 60
Other Healthcare Data Forecasts 61
Key Risks To our Forecast Scenario 61
Competitive Landscape 63
Pharmaceutical Industry 63
Research & Development 66
Domestic Sector 66
Foreign Sector 67
Pharmaceutical Company Developments 68
Company Profiles 69
Local Companies 69
Tecnoquímicas 69
Lafrancol 71
Laboratorios Genfar SA 73
Laboratorios Brussié 74
Multinational Companies 76
GlaxoSmithKline 76
Pfizer 78
Merck & Co 79
Sanofi 80
Novartis 82
Demographic Outlook 83
Table: Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000) 84
Table: Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 85
Table: Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 86
Table: Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 86
Glossary 87
BMI Methodology 89
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts 89
Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 90
Ratings Overview 90
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Indicators 91
Weighting 92
Table: Weighting Of Components 92
Sources 92
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