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Syria Defence and Security Report Q3 2012
Business Monitor International, June 2012, Pages: 67
The Syria Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Syria's defence and security industry.
Syria remains an important actor in the Middle East and Mediterranean regions. It plays a key part in the ongoing dispute between Israel and the occupied Palestinian territories, and in the intra-religious Sunni-Shia Muslim tensions in the region.
BMI's Syria Defence & Security report for Q312 examines the country's place in these regions, and the wider world, while also examining the country's armed forces and its military procurements. The report's conclusion remains that while Syria continues to retain robust and relatively well-equipped armed forces, the ability of these armed forces to bring the current rebellion against the rule of President Bashar al-Assad under control remains in doubt. The report also posits that realistic development of the Syrian economy and its political structures is all but impossible while the internal violence continues.
The report examines the key risks facing Syria. These risks include the ongoing rebellion against Assad's rule. The violence being witnessed in Syria risks making the country ungovernable and slowing, or even reversing, national development. Syria is becoming increasingly ostracised by the international community as a result of Assad's brutal crackdown against the rebellion. Syria's neighbours, notably Turkey, are becoming impatient with the Assad's actions, particularly as regards cross-border military action that has targeted Turkish border areas. Finally, Assad has been able to both court and dismiss international diplomatic efforts to bring the crisis to a close. This has bought Assad short-term gains at home to continue his crackdown, but in the long term this may bring him increasingly isolation amid growing international support for some form of military action to be taken against the Syrian government.
Since BMI's publication of its last Syria Defence & Security report, a number of changes have been made, including the addition of the following discussions:
- The deployment of a United Nations observer mission into the country to monitor a joint United Nations-Arab League ceasefire.
- The spread of violence to other cities around Syria beyond Homs.
- The apparent Islamisation of the rebellion against Assad's rule, and the actions of radical Islamic organisations within Syria.
- The rebel's change of tactics from conventional confrontations with the Syrian security forces, to hit-and-run attacks against the regime.
- A summary of Syrian cross-border incursions into Turkey and Lebanon.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Syria Security SWOT 6
Syria Defence Industry SWOT 7
Syria Political SWOT 8
Syria Economic SWOT 8
Syria Business Environment SWOT 9
Global Political Outlook 10
Major Risks Looming In 2012-2013 10
Global Flashpoints: Eurozone, Iran, Syria, Afghanistan, Korean Peninsula 10
Table: Election Timetable, Q312-Q113 14
Wild Cards To Watch 18
Middle East Security Overview 20
The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s 20
The Middle East In A Global Context 20
Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security 20
Regional Power Dynamics 30
Nuclear Proliferation 32
External Powers 33
Scenarios For The Middle East 35
Security Risk Ratings 37
Table: Middle East And Africa Defence And Security Ratings 37
Table: Middle East And North Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 38
Political Overview 39
What If The Assad Regime Survives? 39
Security Overview 41
External Security Situation 43
Armed Forces And Government Spending 46
Armed Forces 46
International Deployments 50
Weapons Of Mass Destruction 51
Market Overview 53
Procurement Trends And Developments 54
Industry Forecast Scenario 56
Armed Forces 56
Table: Syria's Armed Forces, 2001-2008 ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) 56
Table: Syria's Available Manpower For Military Services, 2009-2016 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) 56
Defence Expenditure 57
Table: Syria's Government Defence Expenditure, 2009-2016 57
Table: Syria's Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2009-2016 (US$mn) 58
Defence Trade 59
Key Risks To our Forecast Scenario 59
Macroeconomic Outlook 59
Political Crisis Will Cripple Economy In 2012 59
Table: Syria – Economic Activity, 2011-2016 61
Country Snapshot: Syria Demographic Data 62
Section 1: Population 62
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 62
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 63
Section 2: Education And Healthcare 63
Table: Education, 2002-2005 63
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 63
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power 64
Table: Employment Indicators, 1999-2003 64
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) 64
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 65
Defence Industry 65