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Hong Kong Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q3 2012
Business Monitor International, June 2012, Pages: 90
The Hong Kong Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, pharmaceutical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Hong Kong's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
BMI View: Despite an increasingly ageing population (consequently increasing burden of noncommunicable diseases), Hong Kong will only be moderately attractive to investors given its small market size. While the dominance of patented medicines is set to continue in the medium term, costcontainment measures will increasingly prioritise the use of generic drugs in the public sector. We also note that the anticipation of a year of the dragon baby boom can bring about short-term opportunities for pharmaceutical companies with infant care products as part of their portfolios.
Headline Expenditure Projections
? Pharmaceuticals: HKD8.66bn (US$1.11bn) in 2011 to HKD9.32bn (US$1.20bn) in 2012;
+7.6% in local currency terms and +7.8% in US dollar terms.
? Healthcare: HKD86.24bn (US$11.08bn) in 2011 to HKD89.68bn (US$11.53bn) in 2012;
+4.0% in local currency terms and +4.1% in US dollar terms.
? Medical devices: HKD4.22bn (US$542mn) in 2011 to HKD4.37bn (US$562mn) in 2012;
+3.5% in local currency terms and +3.6% in US dollar terms.
Risk/Reward Ratings: Hong Kong’s composite score in Q312 remains 60.2 out of 100, which again places it seventh of the 18 markets surveyed in BMI’s proprietary Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs) matrix.
The special administrative region (SAR)’s rewards profile, dragged down by market maturity and small population numbers, remains considerably less attractive than its risk environment. We expect Hong Kong’s position in the table to be increasingly challenged by emerging markets in the Asia Pacific region.
Key Trends And Developments
? In April 2012, health institutions in Hong Kong urged the government to issue guidelines for biosimilars to ensure their safe use. Vivian Lee Wing-yan, associate professor of the School of Pharmacy at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, said industry professionals and the government should collectively issue regulations and guidelines, as well as raising public awareness about biosimilars through education, as they are more complex to manufacture. Lee also asked the government to monitor the efficacy and side-effects of biosimilars after they are registered.
? In April 2012, Swedish healthcare company Meda opened an affiliate in Hong Kong, following the company’s decision in 2011 to establish an affiliate presence in Beijing. The openings point towards the increasingly important role China will play in the company’s Asian expansion strategy.
? In May 2012, the World Health Organization (WHO) designated the Chinese Medicine Division
(CMD) of the Department of Health (DH) as the Collaborating Centre for Traditional Medicine
(CCTM) in Hong Kong. It is the first of its kind in the world as the Centre will focus on assisting the WHO to formulate policies and strategies, as well as setting regulatory standards for traditional medicine. Addressing the inauguration ceremony, the secretary for food and health,
Dr York Chow, said that there was a clear trend of increasing demand for Chinese medicine services from the public, and the government has been actively incorporating Chinese medicine services into the public healthcare system including the setting up of 16 Chinese medicine clinics in the territory and the provision of Chinese and Western medicine shared care services in some 20 public hospitals.
BMI Economic View: The recent uptick in Hong Kong’s Q411 real GDP growth is likely to reverse in the first half of 2012. Weakening external demand conditions should see Hong Kong’s exports take a hit.
Meanwhile, the correction in the domestic real estate market is likely to gather pace through 2012, having ramifications on consumption and investment spending. Consequently, we have revised our 2012 forecasts and now see real GDP growth slowing to 2.2% from a previous estimate of 3.0%.
BMI Political View: Leung Chun-ying won Hong Kong’s 2012 Chief Executive Elections on March 25 with more than double the votes of previous front-runner and Beijing-favourite Henry Tang. However, his public support remains low given his purported political leanings and this is likely to be the main source of concern regarding his tenure going forward. Near term volatility in the business environment is unlikely given that he will have to placate and win over business leaders in order to consolidate support for his administration.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Hong Kong Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWOT 7
Hong Kong Political SWOT 8
Hong Kong Economic SWOT 8
Hong Kong Business Environment SWOT 9
Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings 10
Table: Asia Pacific Pharmaceutical And Healthcare Risk/Reward Ratings, Q312 10
Hong Kong – Market Summary 13
Regulatory Regime 14
Table: Processed Applications 14
Regulatory Developments 15
Pharmaceutical Trade Regulations 17
Intellectual Property Issues 17
Counterfeit Drugs 18
Pricing And Reimbursement Regime 19
Public Procurement Of Medicines 20
Industry Trends And Developments 21
Non-Communicable Diseases 21
Communicable Diseases 23
Healthcare Sector 24
Healthcare Sector Reform 25
Healthcare Financing 26
Healthcare Financing Developments 27
Healthcare Insurance 28
Clinical Trials 29
Clinical Trials 30
Medical Devices 30
Industry Forecast Scenario 33
Overall Market Forecast 33
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales Indicators 2008-2016 34
Key Growth Factors – Industry 35
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Indicators 2008-2016 36
Table: Healthcare Governmental Indicators 2008-2016 37
Table: Healthcare Private Indicators 2008-2016 37
Key Growth Factors – Macroeconomic 38
Hong Kong - Economic Activity 41
Prescription Drug Market Forecast 42
Table: Prescription Drug Sales Indicators 2008-2016 43
Patented Drug Market Forecast 44
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators 2008-2016 45
Generic Drug Market Forecast 46
Table: Generic Drug Sales Indicators 2008-2016 47
OTC Medicine Market Forecast 48
Table: OTC Medicine Sales Indicators 2008-2016 49
Medical Device Market Forecast 50
Table: Medical Devices Sales Indicators 2008-2016 51
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast 52
Table: Exports and Imports Indicators 2008-2016 53
Other Healthcare Indicators 54
Key Risks To our Forecast Scenario 54
Competitive Landscape 56
Pharmaceutical Industry 56
Traditional Chinese Medicine 57
Industry Developments 57
Pharmaceutical Supply Chain 58
Retail Pharmacy Sector 59
Company Profiles 61
Local Companies 61
Wuyi International Pharmaceutical 61
CK Life Sciences 63
South Asia Pharmamedic 66
C&Y Pharmaceutical Investment 67
Vida Laboratories 68
Multinational Companies 70
Merck & Co 76
Demographic Outlook 80
Hong Kong’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000) 81
Hong Kong’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 82
Hong Kong’s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 83
Hong Kong’s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 83
BMI Methodology 86
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts 86
Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 87
Ratings Overview 87
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Indicators 88
Table: Weighting Of Components 89