Switzerland Commerical Banking Report Q3 2012
Business Monitor International, June 2012, Pages: 55
The Switzerland Commercial Banking Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, banking associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Switzerland's commercial banking industry.
Since Q108, we have described numerically the banking business environment for each of the countries surveyed by BMI. We do this through our Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating (CBBER), a measure that ensures we capture the latest quantitative information available. It also ensures consistency across all countries and between the inputs to the CBBER and the Insurance Business Environment Rating, which is likewise now a feature of our insurance reports.
Like the Business Environment Ratings calculated by BMI for all the other industries on which it reports, the CBBER takes into account the limits of potential returns and the risks to the realisation of those returns. It is weighted 70% to the former and 30% to the latter. The evaluation of the ‘Limits of potential returns’ includes market elements that are specific to the banking industry of the country in question and elements that relate to that country in general.
Within the 70% of the CBBER that takes into account the ‘Limits of potential returns’, the market elements have a 60% weighting and the country elements have a 40% weighting. The evaluation of the ‘Risks to realisation of returns’ also includes banking elements and country elemens (specifically, BMI’s assessment of long-term country risk). However, within the 30% of the CBBER that take into account the risks, these elements are weighted 40% and 60%, respectively.
Further details on how we calculate the CBBER are provided at the end of this report. In general, though, three aspects need to be borne in mind in interpreting the CBBERs. The first is that the market elements of the ‘Limits of potential returns’ are by far the most heavily weighted of the four elements. They account for 60% of 70% (or 42%) of the overall CBBER. Second, if the market elements are significantly higher than the country elements of the ‘Limits of potential returns’, it usually implies that the banking sector is (very) large and/or developed relative to the general wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the country.
Conversely, if the market elements are significantly lower than the country elements, it usually means that the banking sector is small and/or underdeveloped relative to the general wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the country. Third, within the ‘Risks to the realisation of returns’ category, the market elements (ie: how regulations affect the development of the sector, how regulations affect competition within it, and Moody’s Investor Services’ ratings for local currency deposits) can be markedly different from BMI’s long-term risk rating.
Executive Summary 5
Table: Levels (CHFbn) 5
Table: Levels (US$bn) 5
Table: Levels At November 2011 5
Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections 2012-2016 (%) 6
Table: Ranking Out Of 59 Countries Reviewed In 2011 6
Table: Projected Levels (CHFbn) 6
Table: Projected Levels (US$bn) 6
SWOT Analysis 7
Switzerland Commercial Banking SWOT 7
Switzerland Political SWOT 7
Switzerland Economic SWOT 8
Switzerland Business Environment SWOT 9
Business Environment Outlook 10
Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating 10
Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings 10
Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating Methodology 11
Table: Developed States Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings 12
Global Commercial Banking Outlook 13
Regional Banking Sector Outlook 21
Developed States Banking Sector Forecast Overview – Q3 2012 21
Table: Banks' Bond Portfolios 2011 21
Table: Developed States Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings 22
Table: Comparison Of Loan/Deposit & Loan/Asset & Loan/GDP Ratios 22
Table: Anticipated Developments in 2012 23
Table: Comparison Of Total Assets & Client Loans & Client Deposits (US$bn) 23
Table: Comparison Of US$ Per Capita Deposits (2011) 24
Table: Interbank Rates And Bond Yields 24
Switzerland Banking Sector Outlook 25
Challenging Environment For Banks Ahead 25
Economic Outlook 28
Table: Switzerland – Economic Activity 30
Company Profiles 31
BCV Group 31
Table: Balance Sheet (CHFmn) 32
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn) 32
Table: Key Ratios (%) 32
UBS 33
Table: Stock Market Indicators 34
Credit Suisse 35
Table: Balance Sheet (CHFmn) 36
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn) 36
Table: Key Ratios (%) 36
Luzerner Kantonalbank 37
Table: Stock Market Indicators 38
Table: Balance Sheet (CHFmn) 38
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn) 39
Table: Key Ratios (%) 39
St Galler Kantonalbank 40
Table: Stock Market Indicators 41
Table: Balance Sheet (CHFmn) 41
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn) 42
Table: Key Ratios (%) 42
Valiant Holdings 43
Table: Stock Market Indicators 43
Table: Balance Sheet (CHFmn) 44
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn) 44
Table: Key Ratios (%) 44
Vontobel 45
Table: Stock Market Indicators 45
Table: Balance Sheet (CHFmn) 46
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn) 46
Table: Key Ratios (%) 46
Basler Kantonalbank 47
Table: Stock Market Indicators 48
Table: Balance Sheet (CHFmn) 48
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn) 49
Table: Key Ratios (%) 49
Julius Baer Group 50
BMI Banking Sector Methodology 51
Commercial Bank Business Environment Rating 53
Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Indicators And Rationale 53
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 54
BCV Group , UBS , Credit Suisse , Luzerner Kantonalbank, , St Galler Kantonalbank , Valiant Holdings , Vontobel , , Basler Kantonalbank , , Julius Baer Group ,
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