Libya Defence and Security Report Q3 2012

  • ID: 2204296
  • June 2012
  • Region: Libya
  • 65 pages
  • Business Monitor International
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The Libya Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Libya's defence and security industry.

Libya is at a significant crossroads following the conclusion of the country's civil war in 2011, and the subsequent end of the 42-year rule of its leader Colonel Muammar Qadhafi. The country is home to an educated population and a considerable oil and petrochemicals industry. For these reasons, the internal situation in Libya has significant ramifications beyond the country's borders. The report examines Libya's current defence and security environment, and the prospects for restoring the country to normality following the end of the civil war. The general conclusion reached is that while Libya has a clear potential to emerge as a peaceful, democratic and prosperous member of the international community much work remains to be done in stabilising the current security situation.

In terms of the reports key findings, BMI believes that the most pressing priority for Libya's new leaders in the READ MORE >

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Executive Summary 5

SWOT Analysis 6

Libya Security SWOT 6

Libya Defence Industry SWOT 6

Libya Political SWOT 7

Libya Economic SWOT 7

Libya Business Environment SWOT 8

Global Political Outlook 9

Major Risks Looming In 2012-2013 9
Table: Election Timetable, Q312-Q113 13

Wild Cards To Watch 16

Middle East Security Overview 19

The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s 19

The Middle East In A Global Context 19

Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security 20

Regional Power Dynamics 30

Nuclear Proliferation 32

External Powers 33

Scenarios For The Middle East 34

Security Risk Analysis 37
Table: Middle East And Africa Defence And Security Ratings 37
Table: Middle East And North Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 38

Political Overview 39

Institutional Vacuum Undermining Spending Plans 39

Security Overview 41

Armed Forces And Government Spending 43

Armed Forces 43

Equipment 45

Weapons Of Mass Destruction 46

Market Overview 49

Industry Trends And Developments 49

Latest Developments 50

Procurement Trends And Developments 52

Industry Forecast Scenario 53

Armed Forces 53
Table: Libya’s Armed Forces, 2000-2008 (’000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) 53
Table: Libya’s Manpower Available For Military Services, 2008-2016 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) 53

Defence Expenditure 54
Table: Libya’s Government Defence Expenditure, 2008-2016 54
Table: Libya’s Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2008-2016 (US$mn) 55

Defence Trade 55

Macroeconomic Forecast 56

Fastest-Growing Economy In The World In 2012 56
Table: Libya – GDP By Expenditure, Current Prices Breakdown, 2008-2016 59

Country Snapshot: Libya Demographic Data 60

Section 1: Population 60
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 60
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 61

Section 2: Education And Healthcare 61
Table: Education, 2002-2005 61
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 61

Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power 62
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) 62

BMI Methodology 63

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 63

Defence Industry 63

Sources 64

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