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Libya Defence and Security Report Q3 2012
Business Monitor International, June 2012, Pages: 65
The Libya Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Libya's defence and security industry.
Libya is at a significant crossroads following the conclusion of the country's civil war in 2011, and the subsequent end of the 42-year rule of its leader Colonel Muammar Qadhafi. The country is home to an educated population and a considerable oil and petrochemicals industry. For these reasons, the internal situation in Libya has significant ramifications beyond the country's borders. The report examines Libya's current defence and security environment, and the prospects for restoring the country to normality following the end of the civil war. The general conclusion reached is that while Libya has a clear potential to emerge as a peaceful, democratic and prosperous member of the international community much work remains to be done in stabilising the current security situation.
In terms of the reports key findings, BMI believes that the most pressing priority for Libya's new leaders in the National Transitional Council (NTC); the caretaker government pending elections expected in June, is to stabilise the security situation by disarming those anti-Qadhafi militias still in existence and providing them with the opportunity to either join the emerging Libyan armed forces, or to be assisted in their search for productive work. Secondly, the NTC must work to reduce the illicit flow of arms from the country, which have been taken from Libyan army stocks during the civil war. These weapons are finding their way to insurgent groups in Africa and further afield. Thirdly, the NTC must press forward its efforts to reform, recapitalise and reorient the country's armed forces. This can be done via the integration of former militias into the Libyan armed forces, and via the acquisition of new military equipment. The NTC must also continue to work for the disarmament of anti-Qadhafi militias whom have not yet surrendered their weapons. In addition, the TNC must endeavour to reduce tensions existing between several of Libya's ethnic groups.
A number of changes have been made since BMI published its last Libya Defence and Security Report.
- Updated analysis regarding Libya's internal security situation and intra-ethnic violence.
- A detailed summary of the NTC's efforts to reconstitute Libya's armed forces, and to equip the armed forces with new materiel.
- A summary of Libya's developing defence and security relationship with the United States of America.
- An examination of the NTC's efforts to secure weapons looted from Libyan army stocks during the civil war, including Man-Portable Air Defence Systems (MANPADS).
- A discussion of the efforts ongoing in Libya to destroy recently discovered and undeclared stocks of chemical weapons which were held by Qadhafi's regime.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Libya Security SWOT 6
Libya Defence Industry SWOT 6
Libya Political SWOT 7
Libya Economic SWOT 7
Libya Business Environment SWOT 8
Global Political Outlook 9
Major Risks Looming In 2012-2013 9
Table: Election Timetable, Q312-Q113 13
Wild Cards To Watch 16
Middle East Security Overview 19
The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s 19
The Middle East In A Global Context 19
Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security 20
Regional Power Dynamics 30
Nuclear Proliferation 32
External Powers 33
Scenarios For The Middle East 34
Security Risk Analysis 37
Table: Middle East And Africa Defence And Security Ratings 37
Table: Middle East And North Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 38
Political Overview 39
Institutional Vacuum Undermining Spending Plans 39
Security Overview 41
Armed Forces And Government Spending 43
Armed Forces 43
Weapons Of Mass Destruction 46
Market Overview 49
Industry Trends And Developments 49
Latest Developments 50
Procurement Trends And Developments 52
Industry Forecast Scenario 53
Armed Forces 53
Table: Libya’s Armed Forces, 2000-2008 (’000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) 53
Table: Libya’s Manpower Available For Military Services, 2008-2016 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) 53
Defence Expenditure 54
Table: Libya’s Government Defence Expenditure, 2008-2016 54
Table: Libya’s Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2008-2016 (US$mn) 55
Defence Trade 55
Macroeconomic Forecast 56
Fastest-Growing Economy In The World In 2012 56
Table: Libya – GDP By Expenditure, Current Prices Breakdown, 2008-2016 59
Country Snapshot: Libya Demographic Data 60
Section 1: Population 60
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 60
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 61
Section 2: Education And Healthcare 61
Table: Education, 2002-2005 61
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 61
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power 62
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) 62
BMI Methodology 63
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 63
Defence Industry 63