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Venezuela Autos Report Q4 2012
Business Monitor International, September 2012, Pages: 53
The Venezuela Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Venezuela's automotive industry.
Favourable base effects have enabled the Venezuelan autos industry to return to the positive growth territory in H112 – the first time since 2008. The market has posted a sharp rebound in the first six months of the year. Vehicle sales increased 18.5% year-on-year (y-o-y), to 67,579 units, in this period,
and production grew 12.9% y-o-y, to 58,044 units. BMI, however, remains cautious about the sustainability of this growth as domestic production continues to face a difficult operating and regulatory environment.
Our core outlook for the segment currently forecasts vehicle production reaching 140,909 units by 2016,
still a far cry from over 172,000 units produced in 2007, prior to the imposition of import restrictions.
Given that growth in domestic sales in directly related with dynamics in the production segment, we forecast vehicle sales to reach 198,500 units by the end of 2016 forecast period. This is still far below the 492,000 units peak reached in 2007.
There is some cause for optimism on the back of ongoing investment from Chinese, Russian, and Iranian auto manufacturers, although exact sales and production figures are difficult to find and verify. Indeed,
BMI warns of being overly optimistic about these developments due to potential volatility in the balance.
In February 2012, for example, Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez revealed that international sanctions imposed on Iran are hurting Venirauto, of which 64% is owned by the Venezuelan government and 36%
by Iran's Aidco. Chavez's acknowledgement of Venirauto’s difficulties undermines one of the potential boosters for the Venezuelan autos production segment. Venirauto was to be part of the government's drive to form a large state-run automotive corporation and was to be involved in the entire production chain by engaging in a range of activities from the handling of raw materials to the distribution of finished products.
Venezuela remains our least favourite market in the Latin America region. The government is doing little to improve the operating environment for carmakers and there could be more downside risks, given that there are discrepancies between government policy and the experiences of carmakers themselves. Much will depend on whether carmakers have been able to significantly improve their production levels in line with the increased demand. We expect Venezuela’s regional underperformance to continue as long as the policy of import restrictions remains in place.
It should be noted that all Venezuelan vehicle sales and production data comes from Automobile Industry Chamber of Venezuela, Cavenez. This is the only source of vehicle sales and production data for the country. The sales figures reported by the organisation represent only the total car sales for dealers registered to it (Fiat, Mini, BMW, Honda Motor, Kia Motors, Nissan Motor, Mazda Motor, Renault,
Scania, SEAT, Volkswagen and minor imports of other brands). The production figures reported by the organisation represent only the total number of cars produced in Venezuela by factories of manufacturers associated to Cavenez (Daimler, Ford Motor, General Motors Company, Iveco, Mack, MMC Automotriz and Toyota Motor). Therefore, the sales and production figures appear to overlook the sales figures of a number of important companies operating in Venezuela, including Russian manufacturer AvtoVAZ, and China’s Chery International, among others. All trends in historical data, and BMI’s forecasts for future trends in vehicle sales and production, are based on this limited picture of the industry. Attempts to garnish a fuller picture of the Venezuelan automotives sector are ongoing.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Venezuela Autos Industry SWOT 7
Venezuela Political SWOT Analysis 8
Venezuela Economic SWOT Analysis 9
Venezuela Business Environment SWOT Analysis 9
Global Overview 10
Table: Passenger Car Sales H112 10
Regional Overview 15
Regional Production Rivals 15
Supply Chain 18
Domestic Sales 19
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings 21
Table: BMI Risk/Reward Ratings For Autos Industry In Americas 24
Macroeconomic Forecast 25
Table: Venezuela – Economic Activity, 2011-2016 27
Industry Forecast Scenario 28
Table: Venezuela Autos Sales, 2009-2016 28
Table: Venezuela Autos Production, 2009-2016 30
Table: Venezuela Autos Trade, 2009-2016 32
Table: Venezuela Car Ownership Rate, 2010-2016 33
Table: Venezuela Sales By Brand 34
Table: Venezuela Production By Brand 36
Industry News 37
Passenger Cars – Forecast & Analysis 38
Table: Venezuela Passenger Car Segment, 2009-2016 38
Company News 38
Commercial Vehicles - Forecast & Analysis 39
Table: Venezuela Commercial Vehicle Segment, 2009-2016 39
Light Commercial Vehicles 39
Heavy Commercial Vehicles 40
Company Monitor 42
Table: VW Regional Sales And Market Share 44
Company Profiles 45
Venezuela Autos Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd
General Motors Company (GM) 45
Ford Motor 45
Toyota Motor 46
Venezuela Demographic Data 47
Table: Venezuela's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 48
Table: Venezuela's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 49
Table: Venezuela's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 50
Table: Venezuela's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 50
BMI Methodology 51
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 51
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