Vietnam Oil and Gas Report Q3 2012

The Vietnam Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Vietnam's oil and gas industry.

Oil output will remain fairly steady over the next five years as production from new developments offsets declining volumes at the flagship Bach Ho field. We expect oil output to peak in 2014, at 414,000b/d, before declining rapidly to just 334,000b/d by 2021. Given that demand is set to rise in line with strong economic growth, export volumes are likely to be eroded further and we expect Vietnam to become a small net importer of oil by 2014. New developments are set to boost long-term gas production to 24bcm by 2016. We also expect strong gas reserves growth on the back of offshore exploration activity in the
Cuu Long and Phu Khanh basins. The main trends and developments we highlight for Vietnam’s Oil and Gas sector are:
- New production from the Te Giac Trang (White Rhino), Dai Hung (Big Bear) and Chim Soa (Blackbird) developments will help offset declines at the flagship Bach Ho field. These projects will drive production growth to a new peak of peak at 414,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2014.

- Consumption of crude is likely to rise steadily in line with our forecast of 6.7% average real GDP growth between 2012 and 2016. We expect oil demand to hit 464,00b/d by 2016, implying net imports of approximately 74,000b/d.

- BMI estimates gas production will rise from an estimated 10.64bcm in 2012 to 23.83bcm by 2016. This is in line with consumption growth. A slight deficit of production late in the forecast period could allow for a small volume of imports, particularly if key power and infrastructure developments go ahead as planned and if new exploration disappoints.

- Oil and gas reserves could rise if new exploration gathers pace following the conclusion of the country’s latest licensing round. However, ongoing risks from vigorous Chinese opposition to drilling in the disputed South China Sea could delay drilling yet again. We have therefore kept our reserves forecasts unchanged at 4.4bn barrels (bbl) and 620bn cubic metres (bcm) for 2012.

- The development of Vietnam’s refining industry is advancing, albeit at a much slower pace than initially expected. The development of the Dung Quat refinery could raise capacity to more than 200,000b/d by 2016. We also anticipate that the Nghi Son refinery will be the first new project to come onstream, with a targeted start date of 2015/2016. Vietnam’s refinery developments will preserve valuable light sweet domestic crudes for export, while allowing for the processing of cheaper heavier foreign grades for domestic consumption.

At the time of writing we assume an OPEC basket oil price for 2012 of US$111.47/bbl, falling to US$107.00/bbl in 2013. Global GDP in 2012 is forecast at 2.6%, down from an assumed 3.1% in 2011, reflecting a faltering recovery in the US and a poor eurozone outlook due to the ongoing sovereign debt crisis. For 2013, real global GDP growth is estimated at 3.3%. SHOW LESS READ MORE >

BMI Industry View 5

SWOT Analysis 6

Vietnam Oil and Gas SWOT 6

Global Energy Market Outlook 7
Table: Oil Production Forecasts, 2010-2016 (’000 b/d) 8
Table: Oil Consumption Forecast, 2010-2016 (’000 b/d) 13

Regional Energy Market Outlook 14

Vietnam Energy Market Overview 19
Table: Vietnam – Upstream Projects Database 20

Industry Forecast Scenario 21
Table: Vietnam Oil & Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016 21
Table: Vietnam Oil & Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2014-2021 23

Oil and Gas Reserves 24

Oil Supply And Demand 26

Gas Supply And Demand 27

LNG 27

Refining/Oil Products Trade 28

Revenues/Import Costs 28

Oil & Gas Infrastructure 29

Oil Refineries 29
Table: Vietnam’s Main Refineries 29

Oil Storage Facilities 30

Gas Pipelines 30

Regional And Country Risk/Reward Ratings 32
Table: Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings 36
Table: Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings 36

Vietnam Risk Reward Ratings – Overview 37

Vietnam Upstream Ratings – Rewards 37

Vietnam Upstream Ratings – Risks 37

Downstream Scores 38

Competitive Landscape 39

Executive Summary 39
Table: Key Players – Vietnam Oil And Gas Sector 40

Overview/State Role 41

Licensing And Regulation 41

Government Policy 42

International Relations 43
Table: Key Upstream Players 44
Table: Key Downstream Players 44

Company Monitor 45

PetroVietnam 45

TNK-BP 48

Petronas Vietnam 50

Zarubezhneft 52

Vietgazprom – Summary 54

Perenco/Conoco – Summary 54

Lukoil – Summary 54

Idemitsu Kosan – Summary 55

Korea National Oil Corporation – Summary 55

Royal Dutch Shell – Summary 55

Chevron – Summary 56

Talisman Energy – Summary 56

Premier Oil – Summary 57

Gazprom – Summary 57

Soco International – Summary 57

Total – Summary 58

Petrolimex – Summary 58

Neon Energy – Summary 59

Others – Summary 59

Asia – Regional Appendix 61
Table: Oil Consumption Forecasts, 2009-2016 (’000b/d) 61
Table: Oil Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (’000b/d) 62
Table: Oil Production Forecasts, 2009-2016 (’000b/d) 62
Table: Oil Production Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (’000b/d) 63
Table: Refining Capacity Forecasts, 2009-2016 (’000b/d) 63
Table: Refining Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (’000b/d) 64
Table: Gas Production Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 65
Table: Gas Production Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 65
Table: Gas Consumption Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 66
Table: Gas Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 67
Table: LNG Exports Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 67
Table: LNG Exports Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 68

Methodology And Risks To Forecasts 69

Glossary Of Terms 70
Table: Glossary of Terms 70

Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 72

Ratings Overview 72
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure 73

Indicators 73
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology 73
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology 74

BMI Methodology 76

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 76

Energy Industry 76

Cross checks 77

Sources 77

PetroVietnam , TNKBP , Petronas Vietnam , Zarubezhneft , Vietgazprom , Perenco/Conoco , Lukoil , Idemitsu Kosan , Korea National Oil Corporation , Royal Dutch Shell , Chevron , Talisman Energy , Premier Oil , Gazprom , Soco International , Total , Petrolimex , Neon Energy ,