China Petrochemicals Industry Outlook to 2015 - Market Size, Company Share, Price Trends and Capacity Forecasts
- Published: August 2011
The China Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, petrochemical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on China's petrochemicals industry.
BMI’s China Petrochemicals Report Q312 examines the long-term growth trends that are in play across the local industry, but warns of short-term concerns about over-capacity and the impact on prices and trade.
This report analyses the way in which the slowdown in Chinese construction activity is affecting polymer demand and explores how this could influence investment risk. It also examines the performance of leading operators and their risk management and growth strategies.
In Q112, the Chinese petrochemicals industry expanded at a much slower pace than in previous quarters, due to the economic slowdown. Ethylene output fell 0.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 3.9mn tonnes, despite ethylene cracker capacity increasing by more than 20% over the previous year. The deteriorating performance in ethylene indicated a slowdown in feedstock demand from petrochemicals producers and plastic converters as they sought to clear inventories amid deteriorating conditions, although end-use output appeared to hold its ground. Several large new Polyethylene terephthalate (PET) plants were set to come online in Q212, adding 1.7mn tonnes per annum (tpa) of capacity and bringing total PET capacity to around 6.5mn tpa. China is also adding 900,000tpa of polypropylene (PP) capacity in 2012.
Chinese polymer demand has slowed considerably due to the weakness in the construction sector and slower economic growth. The segment that will be affected most over the short term will be polyvinyl chloride (PVC) and sales could fall by at least 20% in 2012. With consumption growth now slowing and falling below the high double-digit rates reported in previous years, there is a very real danger that continued capacity expansion will undermine Chinese petrochemicals margins, depress global prices and potentially lead to an array of anti-dumping measures against China.
BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
- Chinese chemicals growth in 2012 will be slower than in 2011 and will remain above the GDP growth rate. However, there are significant downside risks, such as the impact of the European debt crisis and an associated downturn in Chinese exports, a situation that is unlikely to improve over 2012.
- In BMI’s Asia Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs) matrix, China scores 80.3 points. This earns the country first place in BMI's regional rankings, 1.0 point ahead of Japan.
- BMI forecasts that China will have ethylene capacity of 21.56mn tpa by the end of 2012. This will then increase to 31.7mn tpa by 2016, a rise of over 75% on 2011. This includes 5.6mn tpa based on coal-to-olefins processes at 10 projects, which are either under construction or being planned. Six conventional integrated petrochemicals complexes will add a further 4.6mn tpa by 2015. A further 5.75mn tpa will be available once other projects are completed in 2016. SHOW LESS READ MORE >
BMI Industry View 5
SWOT Analysis 7
China Petrochemicals Industry SWOT 7
China Political SWOT 8
China Economic SWOT 9
China Business Environment SWOT 10
Global Petrochemicals Overview 11
Petrochemicals Market Overview 11
Table: World Ethylene Production By Country, 2011 And 2016 (‘000 tonnes capacity) 11
Financial Results 15
Table: Financial Results Of Major Petrochemicals Companies, 2011 15
Global Oil Products Price Outlook 16
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, 2010-2016 16
Emerging Asia Petrochemicals Overview 25
China Market Overview 31
Table: China’s Petrochemicals Sector – Ethylene Projects 33
Table: China’s Petrochemicals Sector – PE Projects 34
Table: China’s Petrochemicals Sector – PP Projects 35
Table: China’s Petrochemicals Sector – PS Projects 35
Table: Refineries In China Of Over 200,000b/d Capacity 36
Integrated Projects 39
Coal-Based Chemicals 41
Other Projects 43
Regulatory Developments 45
Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings 47
Table: Asia Pacific Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings 47
China's Foreign Investment Policy 49
Foreign Trade Regime 50
Industry Forecast Scenario 51
Table: China’s Petrochemicals Sector, 2008-2016 (‘000 tpa, unless otherwise stated) 53
Macroeconomic Outlook 54
Table: China – Economic Activity 57
Company Profiles 58
China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) 58
Glossary of Terms 62
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms 62
BMI Methodology 63
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 63
Chemicals And Petrochemicals Industry 63
Cross Checks 64
Risk/Reward Ratings 65
Table: Petrochemicals Business Environment Indicators And Rationale 66
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 67
China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec)
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