Turkey Petrochemicals Report Q4 2012
Business Monitor International, September 2012, Pages: 52
The Turkey Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, petrochemical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Turkey's petrochemicals industry.
This latest Turkey Petrochemicals Report examines the latest developments in polymer resins,
particularly polypropylene (PP) and polyethylene terephthalate (PET), which promise to be the country’s key growth drivers over the next five years. It also examines the impact of slowing exports on the domestic petrochemicals market, which will remain largely dependent on imports over the short term.
The report examines the market’s potential as Turkey presents itself as a competitive manufacturing hub for Europe and analyses the responses of local producers in satisfying increasing feedstock demand.
In the long term, the country is destined for greater self-sufficiency, which will ensure petrochemicals imports remain subdued over the foreseeable future. The Turkish petrochemicals industry is set for significant expansion, with Petkim leading the way. The construction of a new 200,000b/d (10mn tonnes per annum (tpa)) refinery is set to supply up to 2mn tpa of naphtha feedstock to plants that will help reduce Turkey’s level of chemical imports from 70-75% of domestic demand to 30%. Over the short term, Petkim plans to increase capacity at its existing petrochemical complex, raising ethylene capacity by 80,000tpa to 600,000tpa. A planned ethylene unit will double olefins capacity at the complex.
In terms of the Turkish petrochemical market, there is likely to be a slowdown in sales growth, but BMI does not anticipate a contraction in 2012. Trends will mirror overall industrial production growth, which is forecast to decline from 9.1% in 2011 to 3.4% in 2012 due to falling export growth. Exports are slowing in line with weaker demand from the eurozone, in addition to deteriorating business sentiment indicators. In turn, firms’ propensity to engage in large-scale investment spending is likely to remain weak until there is a fundamental improvement in economic conditions.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
- A joint venture between Saudi Arabian PP producer Advanced Petrochemical Company and Turkish trading company Bayegan Group is planning a 500,000tpa PP plant, which is due to start commercial operations in Q415. This will raise national PP capacity to 650,000tpa by 2016.
-PET capacity is set to be raised by 432,000tpa in 2012 and a further 600,000tpa in 2015 as a result of strong investment in export-oriented polyester production
- Turkey remains in fifth place in BMI’s Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) petrochemicals business environment ratings (BERs) this quarter with 48.7 points, unchanged since the previous quarter. This puts it 9.1 points behind Hungary and 2.3 points ahead of Slovakia.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Turkey Petrochemicals Industry SWOT 6
Turkey Political SWOT 7
Turkey Economic SWOT 7
Turkey Business Environment SWOT 8
Global Petrochemicals Overview 9
Petrochemicals Market Overview 9
Table: World Ethylene Production By Country, 2011 And 2016 (‘000 tonnes capacity) 9
Financial Results 13
Table: Financial Results – Major Petrochemicals Companies, 2011 13
Global Oil Products Price Outlook 14
Table: BMI Oil Price Forecasts, 2011-2016 14
European Petrochemicals Overview 21
Turkey Market Overview 25
Market Evolution 26
Table: Turkey’s Petrochemicals Sector – Cracker Capacity, 2008-2014 (’000tpa) 27
Industry Trends And Developments 28
Post-Privatisation 28
Projects And Expansions 29
Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings 31
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings 31
Industry Forecast Scenario 33
Table: Turkey – Petrochemicals Sector, 2009-2016 35
Macroeconomic Outlook 36
Table: Turkey – Economic Activity, 2011-2016 38
Company Profiles 39
Petkim 39
Turkish Petroleum Refineries Corporation (Tüpras) 41
Glossary Of Terms 43
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms 43
BMI Methodology 44
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 44
Chemicals And Petrochemicals Industry 44
Cross Checks 45
Business Environment Ratings 45
Table: Petrochemicals Business Environment Indicators And Rationale 46
Weighting 47
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 47
Turkey Petrochemicals Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd
Page 4
Country Snapshot: Turkey Demographic Data 48
Table: Turkey's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 49
Table: Turkey's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of population) 50
Table: Turkey's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 51
Table: Turkey's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 51
Petkim , Turkish Petroleum Refineries Corporation (Tüpras) ,
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