Angola Infrastructure Report Q4 2012
Business Monitor International, September 2012, Pages: 50
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BMI Industry View
BMI View: It is not difficult for Angola’s construction industry to post growth, due to its extremely low baseline. We forecast average annual real growth of 12.6% between 2012 and 2016 - the highest in the region. There are a number of projects under way in the transport and the housing sectors that provide optimism for sustained growth in the country’s construction industry. The construction industry value is expected to reach US$9bn in 2012.
The key factors driving our forecasts this quarter are:
- The Angolan government has invested US$1.2bn in the expansion of the commercial port of Lobito, reports Dredging News Online. The expansion includes the construction of a new import and export terminal for mining products, which is close to completion. It will also see the extension of the port's quay in order to allow 12 vessels to dock simultaneously. The expansion will increase the port's annual handling capacity to 11mn tonnes.
- Zambian construction company Basali Ba Liseli Resources announced that it would construct an oil pipeline between Angola and Zambia. The refinery is initially earmarked to refine 200,000 barrels of crude oil a day.
- The run-up to Angola's August 2012 general election has been free from political tensions,
despite the forced resignation of the president's chosen head of the electoral authorities. We do not foresee a serious threat to the government of José Eduardo dos Santos, who has ruled the country for 32 years. BMI believes that the ruling party's control of state institutions will make a ruling party victory all but certain. We predict that political risk will rise after the election, as competition increases to succeed 70-year-old dos Santos.
We forecast that Angola's rapid economic growth will continue, with headline GDP growth due to accelerate to 12.8% in 2012. This increase is largely due to booming oil exports, which BMI forecasts will jump by 19.7% in 2012. Domestic consumption and government spending will also increase, but the country's economy will remain unhealthily dependent on energy exports over our 10-year forecast period to 2021.
Increased oil production and higher oil prices will cause Angola's current account surplus to increase from the 21% of GDP recorded in 2011 to 27% of GDP in 2012. BMI estimates that Angola's oil exports will be worth 56.9% of GDP in 2012, underlining the vulnerability of the country's balance of payments situation to lower crude prices.
BMI Industry View 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Angola Infrastructure SWOT 6
Market Overview 7
West Africa Competitive Landscape 7
Table: Domicile and Number of Contractors In West Africa, 2011 7
Building Materials 11
Global 11
Africa 14
Cement Forecasts 20
Table: Angola Cement Production and Consumption Data, 2009 - 2016 20
Table: Angola Cement Production and Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2014 - 2021 20
Industry Forecast Scenario 21
Table: Angola Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2009 - 2016 21
Table: Angola Construction And Infrastructure Long-Term Forecast, 2014 - 2021 22
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario 22
Transport Infrastructure 24
Regional Transport Infrastructure Outlook And Overview 24
Major Projects Table – Transport 26
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure 27
Regional Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Outlook And Overview 27
Major Projects Table – Energy and Utilities 30
Residential/Non-Residential Construction and Social Infrastructure 31
Regional Residential/Non-Residential Building Outlook And Overview 31
Major Projects Table – Residential, Non-Residential and Social Infrastructure 35
Risk/Reward Ratings 36
Angola’s Risk/Reward Ratings 36
Rewards 36
Risks 36
Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Ratings 37
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings 39
Global Overview 40
Table: BMI Infrastructure Index - YTD Top Performers (%) 43
Table: BMI Infrastructure Index - YTD Worst Performers (%) 43
Methodology 44
Industry Forecasts 44
Construction Industry 45
Data Methodology 45
New Infrastructure Data Sub-sectors 45
Construction 46
Capital Investment 47
Construction Sector Employment 48
Infrastructure Business Environment Rating 48
Angola Infrastructure Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd
Page 4
Table: Infrastructure Business Environment Indicators 49
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