- Language: English
- Published: June 2012
Sudan and South Sudan Autos Report Q3 2012
- Published: May 2012
- 33 pages
- Business Monitor International
The Sudan and South Sudan Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Sudan and South Sudan's automotive industry.
Over the short term, BMI does not expect the situation to improve for new vehicle sales in either Sudan or South Sudan. Following the secession of South Sudan, which is home to the majority of oil fields, and consequently, oil revenue, we believe there will be a return to only tentative GDP growth of 1.1% in Sudan. The hammering out of a definitive agreement with South Sudan on the distribution of oil wealth will be a key factor in establishing economic stability, as will Sudan's attempts to develop its extraction industries as an alternative income to oil. However, increasing tensions between the two threaten the oil sector in both countries and our Oil & Gas team has revised down its combined oil production and export forecasts, which will undoubtedly impact economic growth until a the situation can be resolved.
This poses risks for potential investors in the autos sector. A number of Kenyan auto dealers are looking to set up sales units in South Sudan, attracted by the potential income from the new country's oil reserves.
The poor infrastructure means that most of the dealers are focusing on sales of trucks, which are better equipped for the terrain, but BMI believes there are other risks to this strategy, not least the escalating tensions with Sudan over oil production and transit fees.
Early movers into the market include DT Dobie, representative of Nissan Motor, and China's Foton East Africa, which has already invested in domestic production in Kenya to serve the wider region. Foton has already reached an agreement with a local dealer in Juba, and will begin exports of its pick-up and light trucks.
However, while companies are drawn to South Sudan's economic growth potential based on its oil sector, the recent downward revision of BMI's oil production and net export forecasts cast doubt over this expected boom.
BMI's Oil and Gas team has downgraded its combined Sudan and South Sudan oil production and net exports forecasts, largely on the back of their view that South Sudan will not export any oil until Q412. For now, we expect average production to fall to less than 50,000 barrels per day, compared to 2011 estimates of over 300,000bbl/day. If the conflict between the two escalates much further, even this could prove overly optimistic. This will in turn impact economic growth, as the government relies on oil exports for about 98% of total revenues. SHOW LESS READ MORE >
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Sudan and South Sudan Political SWOT 6
Sudan and South Sudan Economic SWOT 7
Sudan and South Sudan Business Environment 8
Global Overview 9
Global Autos Update: End Of First Quarter Brings Both Positive And Negative Revisions As Key Trends 9
Table: Passenger Car Sales (Units), Jan-March 2012 9
Regional Market Overview 13
Currency And Security Issues See European Imports Winning Out 13
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings 15
South Africa Leads New BMI Ratings 15
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Autos Risk/Reward Ratings 18
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario 19
Table: Sudan - Economic Activity 21
Economic Activity II 21
Industry Forecast Scenario 24
Table: Sudan Automotives Historical Data & Forecasts 24
Competitive Landscape 27
Market Overview 27
Company Monitor 29
Incentive Programme Fuels GM Regional Expansion 29
BMI Methodology 31
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 31
|Electronic (PDF)||The report will be emailed to you. The report is sent in PDF format.||This is a single user license, allowing one specific user access to the product.|