Indonesia Telecommunications Report Q3 2012
Business Monitor International, May 2012, Pages: 107
The Indonesia Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Indonesia's telecommunications industry.
BMI has revised its forecasts for Indonesia's mobile communications market in light of new Q311 data from Telkomsel, XL Axiata and Axis, which recorded sharp increases in their customer bases. Secondplaced Indosat recorded poor growth in Q411. However, we now believe the market served 268.8mn subscribers at the end of 2011. Much of that growth is attributed to operators' success in delivering affordable mobile broadband services over enhanced 2G networks as well as 3G platforms and meeting demand for portable multimedia devices, such as smartphones (Apple's iPhone and Research In Motion's BlackBerry are popular) and mobile computers.
However, while there is some improvement in the contribution to revenue and ARPUs by non-voice services, bottom-line revenue and ARPUs are not growing very quickly, if at all. This is because operators are focused on voice-centric low-cost prepaid services and short-term price promotions. These certainly help operators to grow their customer bases, but it is likely that many of these customers will cease using the services once their credit is used up. We therefore believe that a substantial proportion of the overall number of registered customers is technically inactive, and unnecessarily weighing on ARPUs.
With Saudi Telecommunications Company (STC) having taken a more proactive role in growing Axis' mobile business in 2011, and with the newly-merged Smart Telecom/Mobile-8 entity Smartfren looking to grow its small user base in 2012, it is clear that the urge to compete on price will not end soon and customers will continue to be signed up in substantial numbers. This is not sustainable and we expect further consolidation.BMI expects there to be 431.8mn mobile subscribers by 2016, a penetration rate of 169.9%.
Executive Summary 7
SWOT Analysis 8
Indonesia Wireline (Fixed-Line And Broadband) Business Environment SWOT 8
Indonesia Mobile Business Environment SWOT 9
Indonesia Political SWOT 10
Indonesia Economic SWOT 11
Indonesia Business Environment SWOT 12
Risk/Reward Ratings 13
Asia Pacific 13
Asia Pacific Telecoms Risk/Reward Ratings, Q312 18
Indonesia 19
Industry Forecast Scenario 21
Mobile 21
Table: Mobile Historical Data And Forecasts 21
ARPU 23
Table: ARPU Historical Data And Forecasts (IDR) 23
Fixed Line 25
Table: Fixed-Line Historical Data And Forecasts 25
Internet 26
Table: Telecoms Sector – Internet – Historical Data And Forecasts 26
Market Data Analysis 28
Mobile 28
Market Overview 28
Table: Number Of Mobile Subscribers (Q411) 30
Subscriber Divisions 32
Prepaid 32
Postpaid 33
ARPU 34
3G 35
Mobile Contract Wins 38
Table: Mobile Contract Wins, 2008-2010 38
Mobile Operator Data 39
Table: Indonesia Mobile Market Overview 39
Table: Telkomsel 39
Table: Indosat 40
Table: XL Axiata 42
Table: Bakrie Telecom 44
Mobile Content 45
Regional Outlook 45
Table: Selected NFC Developments, 2011 47
Country Outlook 51
SMS 51
Table: Telkomsel SMS Messages Sent (bn) Vs Revenue Per SMS (IDR) 51
Mobile Broadband 52
Mobile TV 53
Other Content 54
Table: Selected VAS Services Launched, 2008-2011 55
Fixed Line 56
Table: Fixed Network Connections, 2008-2010 ('000) 56
Telkom: Key Fixed-Line Network Developments, 2009-2011 58
Fixed Wireless 59
Table: Major Fixed Wireless Operators – Number Of Subscribers (mn) 60
Broadband 63
IPTV 65
Submarine Cable Deployments 66
Table: Telkom – Key Submarine Cable Developments, 2009-2011 67
WiMAX 67
Wireline (Fixed-Line And Broadband) Developments 69
Table: Wireline Developments, 2008-2009 69
Regulatory Environment 70
Indonesia: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities 70
Telecommunications Law 71
Industry Developments 71
Competitive Landscape 75
Key Players 75
Table: Indonesia Telecoms Sector Key Players 75
Table: Key Operators Financial Indicators, 2004-2010 75
Company Monitor 76
Samsung Electronics Financial Performance (KRWbn) 76
Operator Profiles 82
Telkom 82
Telkomsel 86
Indosat 90
XL Axiata (Formerly Excelcomindo Axiata) 95
Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview 98
Mobile 98
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview 98
Fixed Line 99
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview 99
Broadband 100
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview 100
Glossary Of Terms 101
Table: Glossary Of Terms 101
BMI Methodology 102
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 102
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts 102
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings 104
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 104
Ratings System 104
Indicators 104
Table: Ratings Indicators 105
Weighting 106
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 106
Sources 106
- Samsung Electronics Financial Performance (KRWbn)
- Telkom
- Telkomsel
- Indosat
- XL Axiata (Formerly Excelcomindo Axiata)
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