Poland Defence and Security Report Q3 2012

  • ID: 2204512
  • May 2012
  • Region: Poland
  • 78 pages
  • Business Monitor International
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The Poland Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Poland's defence and security industry.

BMI’s Q3 Poland Defence and Security Report examines the country’s strategic position in Europe and the wider world. It provides an overview of the contemporary geopolitical challenges facing the country, and the challenges it may face in the future. In addition, the report examines the trends witnessed in the country’s current and future defence procurement, and order of battle across its armed forces. The intention is to provide a clear and concise discussion of these issues. The report’s general conclusion is that while some restraints may exist vis-à-vis Polish defence procurement, broadly speaking the country expects to continue the trend of defence modernisation it commenced at the end of the Cold War, and the dissolution of the Soviet Union.

In the two decades since the end of the Cold War, and the collapse of both the Warsaw Pact and the Soviet Union, READ MORE >

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Executive Summary 5

SWOT Analysis 7

Poland Security SWOT 7

Poland Defence Industry SWOT 8

Poland Political SWOT 8

Poland Economic SWOT 9

Poland Business Environment SWOT 9

Global Political Outlook 10

Major Risks Looming In 2012-2013 10

Global Flashpoints: Eurozone, Iran, Syria, Afghanistan, Korean Peninsula 10
Table: Election Timetable, Q212-Q113 14

Wild Cards To Watch 18

Europe Security Overview 21

The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s 21

Europe In A Global Context 21

Europe’s Key Security Issues Over The Coming Decade 21

What If The Eurozone Collapses? Political Risks Assessed 27

Security Risk Analysis 32

BMI’s Security Ratings 32
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings 32
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 33

Political Overview 35

Domestic Politics 35

Numerous Challenges In 2012 35

Foreign Policy 37

Rising Warsaw-Moscow Strains In 2012 37

Long-Term Political Outlook 39

A Maturing Regional Power 39

Security Overview 45

Internal Security Situation 45

External Security Situation 45

Armed Forces And Government Spending 46

Armed Forces 46

Defence Strategy 49

International Deployments 50

Market Overview 52

Arms Trade Overview 53

Procurement Trends And Developments 54

Industry Forecast Scenario 59

Armed Forces 59
Table: Poland’s Armed Forces, 2000-2008 (’000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) 59
Table: Poland’s Manpower Available For Military Services, 2009-2016 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) 59

Defence Expenditure 60
Table: Poland’s Defence Expenditure, 2009-2016 60
Table: Poland’s Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2009-2016 (US$mn) 61

Defence Trade 61
Table: Poland’s Defence Exports, 2009-2016 (US$mn) 62
Table: Poland’s Defence Imports, 2009-2016 (US$mn) 62
Table: Poland’s Defence Trade Balance, 2009-2016 (US$mn) 63

Macroeconomic Forecast 64

Far From Recession In 2012 64
Table: Poland – GDP By Expenditure, Current Prices Breakdown, 2008-2016 67

Company Profiles 68

Bumar 68

HSW 69

WSK PZL Mielec 70

WSK PZL Rzeszow 71

Country Snapshot: Poland Demographic Data 72

Section 1: Population 72
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 72
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 73

Section 2: Education And Healthcare 73
Table: Education, 2002-2005 73
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 73

Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power 74
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 74
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) 74
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012 75

BMI Methodology 76

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 76

Defence Industry 76

Sources 77

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Bumar , HSW , WSK PZL Mielec, WSK PZL Rzeszow ,

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