Sri Lanka Power Report 2012
Business Monitor International, May 2012, Pages: 49
The Sri Lanka Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Sri Lanka's power industry.
BMI View: Sri Lanka is a prime candidate for gas-fired power generation and broader natural gas usage, but has no domestic resources, pipeline links, LNG facilities or distribution system. Tentative plans for gas imports and generation have yet to be developed into firm projects. Oil will remain a significant part of the Sri Lankan power generation mix, thanks largely to a lack of other options. Its connection to the Indian power transmission system is to be strengthened, allowing for greater supply and, later, export flexibility.
The estimated potential for large-scale hydro-power generation in the country is in the region of 2GW. Over two-thirds of this amount has already been harnessed and only a few new plants are planned. Power generation by hydro plants has in recent months been reduced by drought, but government policy is still encouraging private sector development of mini hydro facilities.
Key trends and recent developments in the Sri Lanka electricity market include:
- During the period 2012-2021, Sri Lanka’s overall power generation is expected to increase by an annual average of 7.1%, reaching 24.1 terawatt hours (TWh). Driving this growth is an annual 8.5% gain in oil-fired generation and a 3.5% rise in hydropower, accompanied by the build-up of output from non-hydro renewables.
- With Sri Lanka’s 2011 real GDP assumed to have increased by 8.3%, BMI forecasts average annual growth of 6.3% between 2012 and 2021. The population is expected to rise from the current level of 21.1mn to 22.5mn during the period to 2021, and net power consumption looks set to increase from 10.1TWh to 19.6TWh by 2021. During the period 2012-2021, the average annual growth rate for electricity demand is forecast at 6.8%.
- Thanks partly to the projected rise in net generation, growth of which exceeds slightly the underlying demand trend, Sri Lanka is capable of developing a modest power supply surplus over the longer term. A gradual decline in the percentage of transmission and distribution losses from an estimated 17.6% in 2011 will help strengthen the market. Current net imports estimated at 0.1TWh could have been eradicated by 2016, and transformed into potential net exports of almost 0.5TWh by 2021 if capacity expansion begins to accelerate.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Sri Lanka Power SWOT 6
Global Industry Overview 7
Regional Industry Overview 14
Industry Forecast Scenario 19
Sri Lanka Snapshot (Macro) 19
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data 19
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 19
Sri Lanka Forecast Scenario 19
Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity 19
Table: Sri Lanka Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 19
Table: Sri Lanka Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2014-2021 21
Table: Sri Lanka Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 22
Table: Sri Lanka Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2014-2021 23
Electricity Consumption 26
Table: Sri Lanka Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 26
Table: Sri Lanka Total Electricity Consumption Long Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 26
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports 27
Table: Sri Lanka Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 27
Table: Sri Lanka Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 28
Key Policies/Market Structure 29
Regulation and Competition 29
Key Projects Database 31
Table: Major Projects – Power Plants & Transmission Grids 31
Business Environment 33
Asia Pacific Regional Power Risk/Reward Ratings 33
Table: Asia Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) 38
Sri Lanka Power Risk/Reward Ratings 38
Rewards 38
Risks 39
Competitive Landscape 40
CEB 41
Glossary of Terms 42
Table: Glossary of Terms 42
Methodology And Sources 43
Industry Forecasts 43
Power Industry – Data Methodology 44
Generation and Consumption Data 44
Electricity Generation Capacity Data 45
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 45
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators 47
Sources 48
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