Tanzania Power Report Q3 2012
Business Monitor International, May 2012, Pages: 59
The Tanzania Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Tanzania's power industry.
BMI View: Tanzania’s is suffering from chronic energy shortages, partly due to the impact of recurring drought on the country’s hydroelectric power facilities. We also note that hydroelectricity generation accounts for over half of Tanzania’s total power generation output. The country’s thermal power infrastructure, which mainly utilises natural gas, operates at well below capacity, with local and international firms encouraged to participate in new power generation schemes.
BMI anticipates that Tanzania’s overall power generation will grow by an annual average of 8.9% between 2011 and 2016, to reach 7.79 terawatt hours (TWh). This includes a 4.12% annual average increase in hydropower generation. Meanwhile, thermal power generation is expected to grow by an average of 15.1% annually over the same period, according to our revised forecast. Tanzania is highly dependent on hydropower, and this is the country’s primary source of power generation. However, low water levels at the Mtera dam have hampered generation, following a widespread and prolonged drought in East Africa.
Key trends and developments in the country’s power sector include:
- On January 14 2012, Tanzania’s Energy and Water Regulatory Authority (EWURA) gave staterun Tanzania Electricity Supply Company (TANESCO) the green light to raise electricity tariffs by 40.3%. The decision does not alter our view that disinflation will be the dominant trend in 2012, as a combination of base effects, improved rains and tight monetary policy feed through. However, we believe that the rate of decline will be slower as a result of the electricity price increase.
- Tanzania has secured a US$123mn loan to construct a wind energy plant in the Central Region. The wind turbine project will extend power generation by up to 300 megawatts (MW). The country has also secured a US$165mn loan from HSBC Holdings Plc so it can build a 100MW gas-fired facility.
BMI Industry View 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Tanzania Power SWOT 6
Global Industry Overview 7
Regional Industry Overview 14
Industry Forecast Scenario 19
Tanzania Macroeconomic Snapshot 19
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data 19
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 19
Tanzania Forecast Scenario 19
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 19
Table: Tanzania Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 19
Table: Tanzania Total Electricity Generation Data And Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 21
Table: Tanzania Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2008 - 2016 22
Table: Tanzania Electricity Generating Capacity Long Term Forecasts, 2013 - 2021 23
Electricity Consumption 27
Table: Tanzania Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 27
Table: Tanzania Total Electricity Consumption Data Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 27
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports 29
Table: Tanzania Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 29
Table: Tanzania Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 29
Table: Tanzania Trade Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 29
Table: Tanzania Long-Term Trade Forecasts, 2013-2021 29
Key Policies/Market Structure 32
Key Projects Database 36
Table: East Africa Key Projects 36
Regional Risk/Reward Ratings 41
MEA Regional Power Risk/Reward Ratings 41
Table: MEA Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) 41
Tanzania’s Power Risk/Reward Ratings 46
Rewards 46
Risks 46
Competitive Landscape/Company Monitor 48
Table: Main Utilities In East Africa 49
Table: Main Utilities In Southern Africa (Ex South Africa) 50
Glossary of Terms 52
Table: Glossary of Terms 52
Methodology and Sources 53
Industry Forecasts 53
Power Industry - Data Methodology 54
Generation and Consumption Data 54
Electricity Generation Capacity Data 55
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 55
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators 57
Sources 58
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