Russia Defence and Security Report Q3 2012
Business Monitor International, May 2012, Pages: 117
The Russia Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Russia's defence and security industry.
Despite the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact over two decades ago, Russia remains an important international actor both in the Eurasian region and in the world at large. The country retains some of the world’s biggest armed forces, and has the second-largest nuclear arsenal. BMI’s Q3 Defence and Security Report examines the country’s strategic challenges together with its current and future defence posture. The report concludes that, despite some budgetary challenges, Russia’s military establishment is moving forward with the comprehensive modernisation of its armed forces, with the delivery of new equipment across all three services. The intention of the armed forces’ modernisation programme is to make the country more agile and adaptable in meeting new threats both at home and abroad.
As of Q312, Russia is continuing to procure new equipment and to gradually professionalise its army. One of the most ambitious procurement programmes is occurring in the country’s air force, which is purchasing hundreds of new warplanes, special mission aircraft and freighters over the next decade, with this force modernisation expected to conclude by 2020. In addition, the Russian army is planning to replace a wide range of its current armoured vehicle fleet with a family of modular platforms that can be configured according to the missions that they are to perform. Moreover, the navy is acquiring new vessels, although of all of Russia’s armed services, the navy seems to have the least ambitious procurement plans in terms of platform acquisition. Other important changes to the Russian military that have been outlined in BMI’s Q312 report include the planned activation of a cyber warfare unit in the Russian army to protect the country against cyber attacks, and to wage cyber warfare.
BMI has made a number of changes to its views since the publication of the Q212 report:
- A clarification of the quantity of new aircraft that the Russian air force is to receive prior to 2020.
- A discussion of the roadmap for professionalising the Russian army and the challenges that could be inherent in this process.
- Details regarding the testing and evaluation programmes for the Russian navy’s Bulava Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile.
- A breakdown of the Russian navy’s forthcoming procurement plans for its Caspian Sea Flotilla
- A discussion of the Russian armed forces’ planned modernisation efforts for its ground-based air defence posture.
- Details of the Russian army’s plans for the procurement of a new family of modular armoured vehicles.
- An up-to-date report regarding recent withdrawal of troops from peacekeeping missions involving the Russian army, and details regarding planned Russian navy anti-piracy deployments.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Russia Security SWOT 7
Russia Defence Industry SWOT 8
Russia Political SWOT 9
Russia Economic SWOT 9
Russia Business Environment SWOT 10
Global Political Outlook 11
Major Risks Looming In 2012-2013 11
Global Flashpoints: Eurozone, Iran, Syria, Afghanistan, Korean Peninsula 11
Table: Election Timetable, Q212-Q113 15
Wild Cards To Watch 19
Europe Security Overview 21
The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s 21
Europe In A Global Context 21
Europe's Key Security Issues Over The Coming Decade 21
Security Risk Analysis 28
BMI’s Security Ratings 28
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings 28
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 29
Political Overview 31
Domestic Politics 31
Reform Focus To Remain After Consolidation 31
Long-Term Political Outlook 34
Political Change To Affect Kremlin's Ability To Respond To Challenges 34
Foreign Relations 40
Can Russia And The West Ever Be Friends? 40
Russia Security Overview 47
External Security Situation 47
United States 47
The Western Front 50
Central Asia 52
China 54
Japan 55
The New ‘Great Game’ In The Arctic 56
Beyond Eurasia 56
Russia At Risk Of Losing Great Power Status 59
Russia’s Military Doctrine To 2020 61
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation: New Global Force Or Paper Tiger? 63
Internal Security 68
Armed Forces 75
Armed Forces 75
International Deployments 77
Table: Russia’s Foreign Deployments 2008 78
Weapons Of Mass Destruction 78
Market Overview 83
Industry Trends And Developments 85
Table: Key Players In Russia’s Defence Sector, 2005 85
Arms Trade Overview 86
Procurement Trends And Developments: 86
Industry Forecast Scenario 92
Armed Forces 92
Table: Russia’s Armed Forces, 2000-2008 (’000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) 92
Table: Russia’s Available Manpower For Military Services, 2009-2016 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) 92
Defence Expenditure 92
Table: Russia’s Government Defence Expenditure, 2009-2016 93
Table: Russia’s Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2009-2016 (US$mn) 94
Defence Trade 94
Table: Russia’s Defence Exports, 2009-2016 (US$mn) 95
Table: Russia’s Defence Imports, 2009-2016 (US$mn) 95
Table: Russia’s Defence Trade Balance, 2009-2016 (US$mn) 95
Macroeconomic Outlook 96
Reform Agenda Key For Stable Growth Outlook 96
Table: Russia – Economic Activity, 2011-2016 103
Company Profiles 104
Irkut 104
Kazan Helicopters 105
Rosoboronexport State Corporation 106
Russian Aircraft Corporation MiG (RSK MiG) 107
Sukhoi Aviation Corporation 108
United Aircraft Corporation 109
Uralvagonzavod 110
Country Snapshot: Russia Demographic Data 111
Section 1: Population 111
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 111
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 112
Section 2: Education And Healthcare 112
Table: Education, 2002-2005 112
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 112
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power 113
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 113
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) 113
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2006 114
BMI Methodology 115
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 115
Defence Industry 115
Sources 116
Irkut , Kazan Helicopters , Rosoboronexport State Corporation , Russian Aircraft Corporation MiG (RSK MiG), Sukhoi Aviation Corporation , United Aircraft Corporation , Uralvagonzavod ,
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