Slovenia Tourism Report 2012
Business Monitor International, May 2012, Pages: 47
The Slovenia Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, tourism associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Slovenia's tourism industry.
2011 A Strong Year For Slovenian tourism 2011 proved another strong year for Slovenian tourism, in line with BMI’s view. Final figures released by the Slovenian Tourist Board (STB) in April 2012 showed that a total of 2,006,427 foreign tourists visited the country over the course of 2011, representing a 7.3% increase year-on-year (y-o-y). This was slightly above our forecasts for the year and reflected a strong increase in arrivals from Russia (up 27%),
the Benelux countries (up 18%) and Hungary (up 14%) in particular. There was also a 15% increase in arrivals from Asia, according to the STB, and also a reverse in the trend of falling arrivals from Germany over recent years, with German tourist arrivals up by 12.5% in 2011.
Foreign tourists made up just over 63% of total arrivals according to the STB, with domestic guests accounting for just below 39%. This made for total tourist arrivals (2,006,407 foreign + 1,163,920 domestic tourists) of 3,170,347 for 2010, up by 0.7% y-o-y. BMI chooses to concentrate on looking solely at foreign tourist arrivals in our Slovenia Tourism Report.
Looking at the number of tourists who stayed overnight in Slovenia, this showed an increase of 5% y-o-y,
according to the STB. Health spas remained the mainstay of Slovenian tourism, accounting for one-third of all Slovenian tourist overnights, according to the STB.
Italy remained the most significant market for inbound Slovenian tourism in 2011, sending some 416,534 tourists, an increase of 1.8% y-o-y. The second most important source market for tourists is Austria
(220,222 tourists, up 10% y-o-y), followed by Germany (214,005, up 12.5%), Croatia (108,918, up 6.9%)
and Serbia (80,153, up 6.1%).
For 2012, the STB is adopting a cautious stance, targeting growth of 2-4% in tourist arrivals and overnight stays. This reflects the still-difficult economic backdrop across the EU, as well as the fact that the industry may now be poised for a year of consolidation following the strong performance seen in 2011, when arrivals numbers were also boosted by people coming to Slovenia to celebrate the 20th anniversary of the country’s independence. BMI would share the STB’s caution, currently forecasting 3%
growth in tourist arrivals for the current year, to reach 2.07mn. Acting in support of tourist arrivals this year is the fact that Maribor has been named a European Capital of Culture, which should underpin inbound tourism figures.
Beyond the current year, we believe that arrivals to Slovenia can continue to show steady growth (in the order of 4% per annum), indicating that the country should be welcoming some 2.43mn foreign tourists by 2016. Tourism revenues should also increase over 2012-2016, by some 30%, so that they are approaching the US$4bn mark by the end of our forecast period. Adria Airways Privatisation On The Table The financial position of national carrier Adria Airways has improved considerably since our last Slovenian Tourism Report, when the airline was on the brink of bankruptcy. At the end of September 2011, the airline announced that it had received EUR49.5mn in fresh funding from the government, plus a further EUR500,000 from minority shareholder PDP (Posebna druzba za podjetnisko svetovanje). At the same time, the government reduced its share in the airline from 100%, to 70%, giving a 30% share to a group of four banks as part of a debt for equity swap. In return for this funding, the company vowed to carry out a complete financial and commercial restructuring of the airline, as well as agreeing a new collective agreement with its unionised staff.
Moving forward, the government is now looking to privatise the airline, with rumoured interested parties reported to include Air India – which signed a memorandum of understanding on possible future cooperation with Adria in June 2011 – alongside Air France/KLM, Lufthansa and Emirates. In March 2012 the airline appointed Swiss company Barons Financial Services (BFS) as its financial advisor to help identify potential investors. Adria hopes to have finalised a full or partial stake sale by H213.
Should a sale to a foreign investor come to nothing, then Adria Airways CEO, Klemen Boštjancic, has suggested a merger between the various national airlines operating within the former Yugoslavia
(Croatia Airlines, Jat Airways and Montenegro Airlines) in order to ensure their future financial viability in what remains a challenging operating environment for smaller flag carriers.
However, although such a merger could make sense economically, the troubled history of the Balkan region could pose a substantial political obstacle to such a merger taking place over the short term. In addition, Slovenia is currently an EU member, with Croatia set to join in mid-2013, while the other states of the former Yugoslavia are not, which could raise certain regulatory issues. As such, it seems hard to believe that such a merger would be achievable in the short term and that Adria is right to look elsewhere for a strategic investor in the first instance.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Slovenia Tourism SWOT 7
Slovenia Political SWOT 7
Slovenia Economic SWOT 8
Slovenia Business Environment SWOT 8
Industry Forecast Scenario 9
Arrivals 9
Table: Arrivals Data, 2009-2016 (‘000, unless stated) 10
Accommodation 10
Table: Hotels Data, 2009-2016 (‘000, unless stated) 11
Expenditure 11
Table: Tourist Expenditure And Economic Impact, 2009-2016 12
Inbound Tourism 12
Table: Inbound Tourism, 2009-2016 (‘000, unless stated) 13
Outbound Tourism 14
Table: Outbound Tourism, 2009-2016 (‘000, unless stated) 14
Market Overview – Travel 15
Commercial Airlines 15
Global Oil Products Price Outlook 16
Market Overview – Accommodation 22
Tourism Policy 23
Business Environment Outlook 24
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Travel And Tourism Business Environment Ratings 24
BMI’s Security Ratings 26
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings 26
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 27
Europe Security Overview 28
Europe In A Global Context 28
Europe’s Key Security Issues Over The Coming Decade 28
Global Assumptions 35
Table: Global Assumptions, 2010-2016 35
Developed States 36
Table: Developed States’ Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 37
Emerging Markets 38
Table: Emerging Markets’ Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 38
Consensus 39
Table: Real GDP Growth Consensus Forecasts, 2012 And 2013 39
Company Profiles 40
Adria Airways 40
Terme Catež 42
BMI Methodology 43
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 43
Tourism Industry 43
Tourism Ratings – Methodology 44
Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators 45
Table: Weighting of Components 46
Sources 46
Adria Airways , Terme Catež ,
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