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Egypt Petrochemicals Report Q4 2012
Business Monitor International, September 2012, Pages: 49
The Egypt Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, petrochemical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Egypt's petrochemicals industry.
BMI Industry View BMI’s latest Egypt Petrochemicals Report assesses the risks associated with the transition to democratic civilian rule and warns that slow growth in polymers consumption can be expected over the short term.
The report also examines planned capacity increases, which are focused on the ethylene, polyethylene
(PE) and fertiliser sectors and should see Egypt becoming self-sufficient in certain products over the coming five years.
The transition to civilian rule is also not without uncertainties and BMI expects heightened risk as the new political regime gets to grips with competing demands from industry, investors and the public. The administration is likely to want to stimulate the economy, but a growing and assertive civil society is likely to become more vocal over any controversial projects and there will be a clamour for protecting the economy from external competition and job losses. Aside from the country’s political risks, in the long term, BMI believes that Egypt remains a ripe destination for investment in petrochemicals due to the potential for the domestic market, its trading relations with other markets in Africa, the Middle East and southern Europe and the scale of its upstream resources.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
- In spite of the election of a civilian government, the Egyptian economy remains fundamentally weak, with little to suggest a more pronounced recovery is yet on the cards. As such, growth in plastics and chemicals will be constrained and below full potential, although we do not believe there is a risk of contraction.
- Ethylene capacity is set to rise to 1.66mn tonnes per annum (tpa) by 2016 (from the current 300,000 tpa) on the back of planned projects, which look set to pick up as the civilian government stabilises. This will support a significant expansion of polyethylene (PE), which should rise from 275,000 tpa to 1.58mn tpa over the forecast period.
- The Polypropylene (PP) market is set to expand, although there are no firm plans for growth in domestic PP capacity, thereby making Egypt a ripe destination of PP exports. Egypt’s PP market was estimated at 400,000 tonnes in 2011, with domestic production fulfilling less than half of demand. BMI forecasts PP demand increasing to 550,000 tonnes by 2016.
- In the Middle East and Africa Petrochemicals risk/reward ratings (RRRs), Egypt sits in ninth place with 44.8 points, up 0.3 points on the previous quarter.
BMI Industry View 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Egypt Petrochemicals Industry SWOT 6
Egypt Political SWOT 7
Egypt Economic SWOT 8
Egypt Business Environment SWOT 9
Global Petrochemicals Overview 10
Petrochemicals Market Overview 10
Table: World Ethylene Production By Country, 2011 And 2016 (‘000 tonnes capacity) 10
Financial Results 14
Table: Financial Results – Major Petrochemicals Companies, 2011 14
Global Oil Products Price Outlook 15
Table: BMI Oil Price Forecasts, 2011-2016 15
Africa Regional Overview 22
Table: Africa’s Gas Reserves, 2011 (bcm) 22
Table: Africa’s Oil Reserves, 2011 (bn bbl) 22
Table: Africa’s Cracker Capacity, 2010-2016 (’000 tpa) 25
Egypt Market Overview 26
Industry Trends And Developments 28
Projects And News 29
Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings 34
Egypt Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings 34
Table: Middle East And Africa Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings 34
Industry Forecast Scenario 37
Table: Egypt Petrochemicals Sector, 2009-2016 (‘000tpa unless otherwise stated) 38
Macroeconomic Outlook 39
Table: Egypt - Economic Activity 41
Company Profiles 42
Sidi Kerir Petrochemicals (Sidpec) 43
Glossary Of Terms 44
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms 44
BMI Methodology 45
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 45
Chemicals And Petrochemicals Industry 45
Cross Checks 46
Business Environment Ratings 47
Egypt Petrochemicals Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd
Table: Petrochemicals Business Environment Indicators And Rationale 47
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 48
EChem , Sidi Kerir Petrochemicals (Sidpec) ,