Egypt Shipping Report Q3 2012

The Egypt Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, shipping associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Egypt's shipping industry.

Through 2012 the key factor affecting the wider Egyptian economy, and the ports and shipping sector, is political uncertainty. After the collapse of the Mubarak regime in early 2011 there are still many question marks over the future of the country. BMI believes Egypt is a country which combines strong medium- to long-term growth potential with significant short-term risks. Looking specifically at the ports and shipping sector, increasing militancy by dock workers has been an important issue. The latest facility to be hit by strikes was Sokhna, which had a 10-day strike in Q212.

BMI will continue to monitor developments at the facilities. In the absence of monthly throughput data, our forecasts are being informed by our macroeconomic outlook and any news stories relating to industrial actions. Most of our forecasts for 2012 have been revised down since last quarter on this basis, though we are still projecting growth, in contrast to 2011 when most Egyptian ports recorded falls in their handling volumes.

Headline Industry Data
- 2012 total tonnage throughput at Damietta is forecast to grow by a subdued 0.7% to 26.06mn tonnes, and to average 1.6% per annum to 2016.

- 2012 East Port Said container throughput growth forecast at 6.2% to reach 2.76mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs), and to average 11.2% to 2016.

- 2012 Egyptian trade real growth forecast at 4.6%, and to average 10.9% over the medium term. Key Industry Trends Potential Investment By Maersk To Take Advantage Of Continued Canal Traffic Growth BMI believes that Danish shipping conglomerate AP Møller Maersk must have confidence in East-West trade through the Suez Canal if the company's reported plans to invest heavily in developing its transhipment hub at the waterway's mouth come to fruition.

Foiled Terror Attack BMI notes that there was a foiled terror attack against a vessel traversing the Suez Canal in March 2012.

We remain doubtful that this will seriously affect the decision of shipping companies to use the waterway, however, and maintain our view that volumes will hold up in 2012.

Further Egyptian Port Strikes Threaten Throughput Forecasts Continuing a trend of industrial action that BMI has noted at Middle Eastern ports since the advent of the Arab Spring, the DP World-operated Egyptian facility of Sokhna has once again seen its workforce down tools. This is the second time in six months that workers at the facility have gone on strike, following an earlier action in September 2011, and offers downside risk to BMI's conservative throughput forecast for the facility in 2012. Sokhna is not the only Egyptian port to have seen strikes in recent months: El Dekheila and Alexandria both experienced strikes in September also.

Key Risks to Outlook The main risks to our forecasts for Egyptian ports are primarily to the downside. Should the country be racked by another wave of political unrest, which remains distinctly possible at this stage, volumes through Egyptian ports could see a contraction like that experienced in most facilities in 2011.

Additionally, any further industrial actions by workers could likewise affect throughput; Sokhna was the latest Egyptian facility to be struck by strikes, with a 10-day action in Q212. SHOW LESS READ MORE >

Executive Summary 5

SWOT Analysis 7

Egypt Shipping SWOT 7

Egypt Political SWOT 8

Egypt Economic SWOT 9

Egypt Business Environment SWOT 10

Global Overview – Container Shipping 11

Executive Summary: Rate Decline Risk, Threat Of Another Year Of Losses 11

Slowing Demand A Major Threat To Freight Rates 12

Carriers Thinking Outside Box On Overcapacity, Can Rate War Be Avoided? 17

Lines Must Tackle High Bunker Prices To Avoid Impact On 2012 Bottom Line 23

Evergreen's Order Raises Questions For Future Of Box Fleet Expansions 26

Global Overview – Dry Bulk Shipping 32

Executive Summary: Rates Struggling To Recover From 25-Year Low 32

Bleak Demand Outlook Gives Cause For Concern 33

Lines Withhold Payments As Shipping Struggles In Depressed Market 35

Vale's Valemax Woes Continue, Vessel Values And Demand Plunging 37

Orders Continue As Lines Take Advantage Of Bargain Basement Prices 42

Record Dry Bulk Scrapping Levels No Match For Global Fleet 44

Global Overview – Liquid Bulk Shipping 46

Executive Summary: Bearish View Maintained Despite Industry Optimism 46

Will Increased Asian Crude Imports Offset Excess Tonnage? 47

More Pain For US Tanker Operators Despite Investor Confidence 51

2012 Political Impact On Crude Oil Shipping Emanating From Iran 53

Tanker Operators Scrap In Desperate Attempt To Shore Up Rates 58

Tanker Pools To Grow As Operators Seek Safety In Numbers 60

Industry Trends And Developments 62

Container Shipping Market Overview 66

Industry Forecast 71

Port of East Port Said 71

Port of El Dekheila 74
Table: Major Port Data, 2009-2016 77
Table: Trade Overview, 2009-2016 79
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2009-2016 (US$mn) 79
Table: Egypt's Main Import Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn) 80
Table: Egypt's Main Export Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn) 80

Company Profiles 81

Maersk Line 81

Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) 87

CMA CGM 91

COSCO Container Lines Company Limited (COSCON) 96

Hapag-Lloyd 01

Evergreen Line 05

APL 09

China Shipping Container Line (CSCL) 15

Hanjin Shipping (Container Operations) 20

Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL) (Container) 24

Country Snapshot: Egypt Demographic Data 129
Table: Egypt's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 30
Table: Egypt's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 31
Table: Egypt's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 32
Table: Egypt's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 32

Maersk Line , Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) , CMA CGM , COSCO Container Lines Company Limited (COSCON), HapagLloyd , Evergreen Line , APL , China Shipping Container Line (CSCL) , Hanjin Shipping (Container Operations) , Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL) (Cont