Croatia Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2012
Business Monitor International, September 2012, Pages: 84
The Croatia Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, pharmaceutical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Croatia's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
Executive Summary
BMI View: Croatian pharmaceutical market will continue to be weakened by economic recession in 2012 combined with cost-containment measures that will affect public sector funding. Generally speaking, the performance of Croatia’s pharmaceutical, healthcare and medical device markets is increasingly tied to the country’s challenging economic outlook. At best, Croatia’s pharmaceutical market will continue to represent a modest prospect for foreign companies. despite the country’s gradual convergence with EU legislation and standards, as part of its accession process.
Headline Expenditure Projections:
- Pharmaceuticals: HRK7.16bn (US$1.34bn) in 2011 to HRK7.09bn (US$1.30bn) in 2012;
-1.0% in local currency and -3.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast up slightly from Q312 due to analyst intervention.
- Healthcare: HRK26.23bn (US$4.90bn) in 2011 to HRK25.46bn (US$4.66bn) in 2012; -2.9% in local currency and -5.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast broadly unchanged.
- Medical devices: HRK1.41bn (US$264mn) in 2011 to HRK1.39bn (US$255mn) in 2012; -1.3%
in local currency and -3.3% in US dollar terms. Forecast broadly unchanged.
Risk/Reward Rating:
Croatia’s RRRs are stable in our latest assessment following a downward revision in our assessment in Q312. Croatia relative position has slightly improved, up to 16th place from 17th place previously, as a result of weaker outlook for Serbia, which Croatia subsequently overtook.
However, Croatia still remains one of the least attractive markets for multinationals in the CEE region.
Key Trends And Developments:
- Our expectation for a full-year recession in Croatia this year and our expectations that the Kukuriku coalition government is pursuing severe austerity measures and the HZZO announcing substantial cuts to its 2012 healthcare budget, translates into a weaker outlook for Croatia’s pharmaceutical, healthcare and medical device market.
-We project pharmaceutical expenditure at consumer prices will total HRK7.09bn (US$1.30bn) in 2012, down from HRK7.16bn (US$1.34bn) in 2011. With HZZO expenditure linked to its revenue, which is collected from employee contributions, the state of the economy, including the jobs market, has very direct implications for total healthcare expenditure.
BMI Economic View:
We maintain our expectation for a full-year recession in Croatia this year equivalent to -1.5% in real GDP terms and a mild recovery of 1.0% in 2013. Data from the Croatian Bureau of Statistics showing a strong contraction in industrial production in recent months further affirms our view.
BMI Political View:
While we see scope for tension between Croatia and Serbia to increase in the coming months following the election of a nationalist president and coalition government in the latter, we see no long-term threat to international relations or regional stability. That said, we do not discount the potential for flashpoint issues to flare up over the coming years as both countries attempt to put war-time animosities to rest
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Croatia Pharmaceuticals Industry SWOT 7
Croatia Political SWOT 8
Croatia Economic SWOT 8
Croatia Business Environment SWOT 8
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings 10
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings, Q412 10
Rewards 11
Risks 12
Croatia – Market Summary 14
Regulatory Regime 16
Pharmaceutical Advertising 17
Intellectual Property Regime 18
Pricing Regime 19
Reimbursement Regime 20
OTC Regulations 22
Industry Trends And Developments 23
Epidemiology 23
Healthcare Provision 24
Healthcare Expenditure 24
Table: Reimbursed Drug Expenditure By HZZO (HRK) - Equivalent to Final Consumer Prices 25
Table: State Budget for Healthcare (HRKbn) 25
Healthcare Reform 26
Clinical Trials 27
Medical Devices 27
Industry Forecast Scenario 29
Overall Market Forecast 29
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales Indicators 2008-2016 30
Table: Reimbursed Drug Expenditure By HZZO (HRK) - Equivalent to Final Consumer Prices 31
Key Growth Factors – Industry 32
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Indicators 2008-2016 33
Table: Healthcare Governmental Indicators 2008-2016 33
Table: Healthcare Private Indicators 2008-2016 34
Key Growth Factors – Macroeconomic 35
Table: Croatia Economic Activity, 2011-2016 36
Prescription Drug Market Forecast 37
Table: Prescription Drug Sales Indicators 2008-2016 38
Patented Drug Market Forecast 39
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators 2008-2016 40
Generic Drug Market Forecast 41
Table: Generic Drug Sales Indicators 2008-2016 42
OTC Medicine Market Forecast 42
Table: OTC Medicine Sales Indicators 2008-2016 44
Croatia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd
Page 4
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast 44
Table: Exports and Imports Indicators 2008-2016 45
Medical Device Market Forecast 46
Table: Medical Devices Sales Indicators 2008-2016 47
Other Healthcare Forecasts 47
Key Risks To our Forecast Scenario 48
Competitive Landscape 50
Pharmaceutical Industry 50
Table: Top-10 Medicines By Value Sales 51
Domestic Pharmaceutical Industry 52
Table: Croatian Pharmaceutical Manufacturers 53
Foreign Pharmaceutical Industry 54
Company Activity 54
Pharmaceutical Wholesale 55
Pharmaceutical Retail 56
Company Profiles 58
Local Company Profiles 58
PLIVA (Teva Pharmaceuticals) 58
Belupo 61
Jadran Galenski Laboratorij 64
Foreign Company Profiles 66
GlaxoSmithKline 66
Pfizer 68
Sanofi 69
Novartis 70
Merck & Co 71
Krka 72
Demographic Data 74
Table: Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000) 75
Table: Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 75
Table: Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 76
Table: Rural/Urban Population Split, 1990-2020 76
Glossary 78
BMI Methodology 80
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts 80
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 81
Ratings Overview 81
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators 82
Weighting 83
Table: Weighting Of Components 83
PLIVA (Teva Pharmaceuticals) , Belupo , Jadran Galenski Laboratorij , GlaxoSmithKline , Pfizer, Sanofi , Novartis , Merck & Co , Krka ,
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