Germany Autos Report Q4 2012
Business Monitor International, September 2012, Pages: 83
The Germany Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Germany's automotive industry.
Executive Summary New passenger car sales in Germany totalled 1,882,400 in the first seven months of 2012, according to figures from Germany’s automakers association (VDA). This was a fall of 0.07% year-on-year (y-o-y),
indicating that the market is broadly flat at present. Passenger car exports (2,495,400 units) and production (3,294,500) were both unchanged on the previous year.
However, it was a more downbeat story for commercial vehicles (CVs), with sales down 2% in the Jan-
Jul 2012 period, at 184,550 units. In H112, CV exports were down by 3.3%, at 143,732 CBUs, with CV production also down, by 0.6%, at 210,501.
Looking at the July figures specifically, monthly passenger car sales were down by 5% y-o-y, at 247,860. This is a very disappointing figure and it remains to be seen if this will represent a one-off blip or the start of a more protracted downturn in new car sales over the balance of 2012. For now, we maintain our forecasts for sales in this segment to increase by 1.1% over 2012 due to historic seasonality trends in the second half of the year. However, risks to this figure are now very much to the downside.
Certainly, the outlook for the German economy (and by extension its autos sector) continues to be overshadowed by the retrenchment in demand among euro area economies. BMI believes that, in the absence of a decisive resolution to the eurozone crisis over the next 12-18 months, investment levels are set to suffer substantially and both consumer and business confidence are likely to remain subdued,
which will hit domestic demand across the economy (see our online service, July 11, 'Falling Confidence To Hit Growth Hard'). As such, BMI believes the time is right to scale down its sales forecast for commercial vehicles to 0% growth in 2012 (down from 5% previously).
BMI is also making some downward revisions to its forecasts for production and exports in 2012. BMI now believes that German vehicle exports may show a slight decline of 0.2% this year (based on a flat performance by passenger cars, but a 2.25% decline in commercial vehicle exports), with overall autos production also set to fall by 1.2% (based on a 1% decline in passenger car output and a 2.5% decline in commercial vehicle output).
As of end-June 2012, the top-selling automaker in Germany remains Volkswagen (VW), which manufactured the three best selling cars in the country over the first half of the year, with the Golf,
Passat and Polo models respectively. Opel occupied fourth position with its Astra model and 10th position with its Corsa model. Mercedes-Benz held fifth and ninth position, with its C-Class and BClass models respectively. BMW has sixth and seventh position with its 3-Series and 1-Series models,
with VW subsidiary Audi claiming eighth spot with its A6/A7 model.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Germany Autos SWOT 6
Germany Political SWOT 7
Germany Economic SWOT 7
Germany Business Environment SWOT 8
Global Overview 9
Table: Passenger Car Sales H112 9
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings 13
Poor Show From Western Europe Hurts Region's Score In BMI Ratings 13
Table: BMI Industry Risk/Reward Ratings For Autos In Europe 17
Regional Overview 18
Investments In Emerging Europe 18
Macroeconomic Forecast 25
Table: Germany – Economic Activity 29
Industry Forecast Scenario Domestic Sales 30
Table: Germany – Autos Sales 30
Production 32
Table: Germany – Autos Production 32
Trade 34
Table: Germany – Autos Trade 34
Competitive Landscape 36
Historical Background 36
Major Industry Players 38
Table: German New Vehicles Sales By Brand (Units) 38
Table: Top 10 Best Selling Cars In Germany In H112 39
Passenger Vehicles – Forecast & Analysis 40
Table: Germany – Passenger Car Segment 40
New Investments 40
Company News 41
Alternative Fuels 47
Commercial Vehicles – Forecast & Analysis 50
Table: Germany – Commercial Vehicle Segment 50
Commercial Vehicle Sales To Contract In 2012 51
New Investments 52
Company News 52
Table: Timeline For MAN-Scania Merger 53
Buses 56
Motorcycles – Forecast & Analysis 57
Table: Germany – Motorcycle Segment 57
Sector News 58
Germany Autos Report Q3 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd
Page 4
Company News 60
Suppliers 62
Continental’s New Investment To Be Aimed At EM And DM Growth 62
BASF To Strengthen Electromobility Participation With Ovonic Purchase 63
Company Monitor 65
Fiat Profits Continue To Tumble 65
Company Profiles 67
Volkswagen (VW) 67
BMW 69
Mercedes-Benz 71
Robert Bosch 73
Continental 75
Country Snapshot 77
Table: Germany's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 78
Table: Germany's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 79
Table: Germany's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 80
Table: Germany's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 80
BMI Methodology 81
How We Generate Our Forecasting Model 81
Sources 82
Volkswagen (VW), BMW , MercedesBenz , Robert Bosch, Continental ,
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