Germany Commercial Banking Report Q3 2012
Business Monitor International, May 2012, Pages: 64
The Germany Commercial Banking Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, banking associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Germany's commercial banking industry.
Since Q108, we have described numerically the banking business environment for each of the countries surveyed by BMI. We do this through our Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating (CBBER), a measure that ensures we capture the latest quantitative information available. It also ensures consistency across all countries and between the inputs to the CBBER and the Insurance Business Environment Rating, which is likewise now a feature of our insurance reports.
Like the Business Environment Ratings calculated by BMI for all the other industries on which it reports, the CBBER takes into account the limits of potential returns and the risks to the realisation of those returns. It is weighted 70% to the former and 30% to the latter. The evaluation of the ‘Limits of potential returns’ includes market elements that are specific to the banking industry of the country in question and elements that relate to that country in general.
Within the 70% of the CBBER that takes into account the ‘Limits of potential returns’, the market elements have a 60% weighting and the country elements have a 40% weighting. The evaluation of the ‘Risks to realisation of returns’ also includes banking elements and country elements (specifically, BMI’s assessment of long-term country risk). However, within the 30% of the CBBER that take into account the risks, these elements are weighted 40% and 60%, respectively.
Further details on how we calculate the CBBER are provided at the end of this report. In general, though, three aspects need to be borne in mind in interpreting the CBBERs. The first is that the market elements of the ‘Limits of potential returns’ are by far the most heavily weighted of the four elements. They account for 60% of 70% (or 42%) of the overall CBBER. Second, if the market elements are significantly higher than the country elements of the ‘Limits of potential returns’, it usually implies that the banking sector is (very) large and/or developed relative to the general wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the country.
Conversely, if the market elements are significantly lower than the country elements, it usually means that the banking sector is small and/or underdeveloped relative to the general wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the country. Third, within the ‘Risks to the realisation of returns’ category, the market elements (ie: how regulations affect the development of the sector, how regulations affect competition within it, and Moody’s Investor Services’ ratings for local currency deposits) can be markedly different from BMI’s long-term risk rating.
Executive Summary 5
Table: Levels (EURbn) 5
Table: Levels (US$bn) 5
Table: Levels At February 2012 5
Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections 2012-2016 (%) 5
Table: Ranking Out Of 59 Countries Reviewed In 2011 6
Table: Projected Levels (EURbn), 2008-2016 6
Table: Projected Levels (US$bn), 2008-2016 6
SWOT Analysis 7
Germany Commercial Banking SWOT 7
Germany Political SWOT 7
Germany Economic SWOT 8
Germany Business Environment SWOT 8
Business Environment Outlook 9
Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings 9
Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings 9
Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating Methodology 10
Table: Developed States Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings 11
Global Commercial Banking Outlook 12
Eurozone Banking Sector Outlook 18
LTRO 2: Diminishing Marginal Returns To Crisis Management 18
Developed States Banking Sector Forecast Overview 22
Table: Banks' Bond Portfolios 2011 22
Table: Developed States Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings 22
Table: Comparison of Loan/Deposit & Loan/Asset & Loan/GDP ratios 23
Table: Anticipated Developments in 2012 23
Table: Comparison of Total Assets & Client Loans & Client Deposits (US$bn) 24
Table: Comparison of US$ Per Capita Deposits (2011) 24
Table: Interbank Rates and Bond Yields 25
Germany Banking Sector Outlook 26
Economic Outlook 30
Table: Germany – Economic Activity, 2011-20016 34
Competitive Landscape 35
Market Structure 35
Protagonists 35
Table: Protagonists In Germany's Commercial Banking Sector 35
Definition Of The Commercial Banking Universe 35
List Of Banks 36
Table: Top 50 Banks By Assets 36
Company Profiles 38
Deutsche Bank 38
Table: Stock Market Indicators, 2006-2012 40
Table: Balance Sheet (EURmn), 2006-2011 40
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn), 2006-2011 40
Table: Key Ratios (%), 2006-2011 41
Commerzbank 42
Table: Stock Market Indicators, 2006-2012 43
Table: Balance Sheet (EURmn), 2006-2011 43
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn), 2006-2011 44
Table: Key Ratios (%), 2006-2011 44
HypoVereinsbank 45
Table: Stock Market Indicators, 2004-2010 46
Table: Balance Sheet (EURmn, unless stated), 2004-2009 46
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated), 2004-2009 46
Table: Key Ratios (%), 2004-2009 47
DZ Bank 48
Table: Stock Market Indicators, 2005-2008 49
Table: Balance Sheet, 2005-2008 (EURmn, unless stated) 49
Table: Balance Sheet, 2005-2008 (US$mn, unless stated) 49
Table: Key Ratios, 2005-2008 (%) 50
KfW 51
Table: Key Statistics For KfW, 2007-2008 (EURmn) 52
Deutsche Postbank 53
Table: Stock Market Indicators, 2006-2012 54
Table: Balance Sheet (EURmn), 2006-2011 54
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn), 2006-2011 54
Table: Key Ratios (%), 2006-2011 55
UniCredit Bank AG 56
Table: Stock Market Indicators, 2006-2012 57
Table: Balance Sheet (EURmn), 2006-2011 57
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn), 2006-2011 57
Table: Key Ratios (%), 2006-2011 58
BMI Banking Sector Methodology 59
Commercial Bank Business Environment Rating 61
Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Indicators And Rationale 62
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 63
Deutsche Bank , , Commerzbank , , HypoVereinsbank , , DZ Bank , , KfW , , Deutsche Postbank , , UniCredit Bank AG ,
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