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United States Mining Report Q3 2012

Business Monitor International, May 2012, Pages: 55

The United States Mining Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, mining associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on United States's mining industry.

We see modest growth across mineral commodities in the US over our forecast period as mining companies see larger growth opportunities in developing markets. The US contains large deposits of key mineral commodities such as coal, copper, gold, zinc and lead and we forecast the industry value to grow to US$83.8bn in 2012. We see the domestic mining sector growing at a slower pace than many developed market peers such as Canada and Australia, but believe there still exist promising opportunities for mine development in the US. With metals prices to stay elevated by historical standards, previously uneconomical deposits may become mineable again.

We expect new investments will target minerals for which global fundamentals remain favourable such as copper and gold, driving our industry growth forecasts. Several of the largest US mining companies are developing projects to mine copper and gold as global demand outstrips supply. While copper supply in the US has fallen over the last decade as ore grades decline and miners have sought larger deposits abroad, we see several new mine expansions coming online, which will support output. While investment in copper and gold will likely continue, we see minimal investments into mineral resources for other base metals. Weaker market fundamentals for zinc and lead will keep price gains modest in the coming years and we do not expect domestic mining companies in the US to invest heavily in developing these resources.

Regulatory Hurdles Hurt Competitiveness The US maintains one of the most favourable business environments in the region and indeed the world. Political stability and investor friendly policies that create few barriers to entry are favourable for mining sector development. Furthermore, established mining sector infrastructure and developed regulatory and legal environments protect mining companies from unexpected or unforeseen risks. We note, however, that environmental opposition may create additional challenges for mining sector companies in the years to come. Public pressure on regulators may introduce additional laws and regulations on mining companies seeking to develop projects in environmentally sensitive areas. Furthermore, federal level pollution controls will likely weigh on growth for coal mining companies as power generation capacity in the US shifts away from aging, more polluting technologies to cheaper cleaner alternatives such as natural gas.

The US mining sector is dominated primarily by domestic mining companies, though several Canadian miners are also heavily invested in the country. The size and scale of the US mining sector means that production is relatively fragmented within each mineral produced, though naturally the large global mining companies generate the largest share. Because emerging markets in Latin America and Asia increasingly maintain stable business environments, major miners such as Freeport McMoRan, Peabody Energy and Newmont Mining are looking abroad to drive their growth rather than investing heavily in US production.

Executive Summary 5

SWOT Analysis 7

Mining Industry SWOT 7

Political SWOT Analysis 8

Economic SWOT Analysis 8

Business Environment SWOT Analysis 9

Global Mining Outlook 10
Table: Recent Tax Increases 13
Table: Largest Coal Projects 15
Table: Major Frontier Mining Projects 16

Americas Mining Sector Outlook 17
Table: Key Central America And Caribbean Mining Projects 19

Industry Trend Analysis 22
Table: US Mineral Production, 2011 23
Table: United States' Mining Industry Value And Production 25

Industry Forecasts 26

Coal: Falling Demand Forces Sector-Wide Changes 26
Table: Main Coal Projects 27
Table: United States' Coal Production 29

Copper: Modest Growth Ahead 29
Table: US Copper Mine Projects 31
Table: United States' Copper Production, 2009-2016 31

Lead: Domestic Consumption Will Not Spur Investment 32
Table: Major Lead Projects 33
Table: United States' Lead Production, 2009-2016 34

Regulatory Structure 35
Table: Key US Mining Laws 35

Americas Business Environment Ratings 37
Table: Americas Mining Business Environment Risk/Reward Ratings 37

Competitive Landscape 41
Table: US Competitive Landscape 41

Company Profiles 43

Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold 43
Table: Freeport McMoRan's Key Financial Data 44

Newmont Mining 45
Table: Newmont Mining's Key Financial Data, 2005-2011 46

Peabody Energy 47
Table: Peabody Energy's Key Financial Data 48

Commodity Strategy 49

Copper To Edge Lower 49

Aluminium: No Sustained Recovery Ahead 49

Oil: Prices To Pull Back 50

Gold: Still Bullish 51

Business Environment Ratings Methodology 52
Table: Mining Business Environment Indicators 53
Table: Weighting Of Components 54

FreeportMcMoran Copper & Gold , Newmont Mining , Table: Newmont Mining's Key Financial Data , Peabody Energy ,

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