Market and Product Forecasts: Targeted Cancer Therapies 2011-21 – Eurozone price cuts impact targeted cancer therapies market

Datamonitor, July 2012, Pages: 88

Market Product Forecasts for currently marketed targeted cancer therapies including; an overview of sales in each of the seven major pharmaceutical markets and sales forecasts for each brand over the forecast period 2011-21.

The targeted therapies class has fueled most of the recent rapid growth of the oncology market as a whole. In the next decade the market will become more fragmented as new targeted therapies are developed for niche populations. In addition to this, recent pricing restrictions in the Eurozone will impact sales growth of targeted cancer therapies in the five major EU markets.

Scope

- Analysis of sales forecasts of 28 targeted cancer therapy brands over the period 2011-21 in the seven major pharmaceutical markets.
- Includes an overview of the overall targeted therapies market as well as country specific and brand specific forecasts.
- Analysis of the impact of generics and biosimilars on the marketed targeted cancer therapy brands over the forecast period 2011-21
- Analysis of pharmacoeconomic constraints likely to affect sales growth in the seven major pharmaceutical markets.

Highlights

- Datamonitor forecasts the currently marketed targeted cancer therapies to achieve collective sales of $37.2bn by 2014 in the seven major markets (the US, Japan, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK), growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.36% from 2011 to 2014.

- In 2011 the MAbs achieved sales of $16.3bn accounting for 54% of the sales of currently marketed targeted cancer therapies. The impact of generic competition on small molecule brands is expected to be greater than the impact of biosimilar competition on MAbs.

- The US has the largest patient population and will remain the largest market over the forecast period of 2011–21. The aggressive uptake of generics in the US market, means the L1X4, L1X9, and L4A0 classes are expected to see a significantly higher decrease in branded sales over the forecast period compared to the MAbs.

Reasons to Purchase

- Access Datamonitor’s company-reported sales based market forecasts for 28 targeted cancer therapies in the US, Japan and the five major EU markets.
- Analyze the sales forecasts in each of the seven major markets and for each of the targeted cancer therapy brands across the forecast period 2011-21.
- Report is accompanied by a PowerPoint presentation and Excel deliverable showing the transparent methodology and forecasting assumptions.

OVERVIEW
- Catalyst
- Summary

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Strategic scoping and focus
- Datamonitor key findings
- Related reports

MARKET DEFINITION
- Market definition for the targeted cancer therapies class
- - Targeted cancer therapies by ATC class
- - Targeted cancer therapies not included in this report

- Forecast methodology and assumptions ?Methodology flow
- - Patent expiries

MARKET OVERVIEW AND CONTEXT
- Current and future market dynamics overview
- US forecast
- Japan forecast
- Five major EU markets?France
- - Germany
- - Italy
- - Spain
- - UK

PRODUCT FORECASTS

- Adcetris (brentuximab vedotin; Seattle Genetics/Takeda)
- - Forecast assumptions
- - Adcetris forecast 2011–21

- Afinitor (everolimus; Novartis)
- - Forecast assumptions
- - Afinitor forecast 2011–21

- Arzerra (ofatumumab; Genmab/GlaxoSmithKline)
- - Forecast assumptions
- - Arzerra forecast 2011–21

- Avastin (bevacizumab; Roche/Chugai)
- - Forecast assumptions
- - Avastin forecast 2011–21

- Caprelsa (vandetanib; AstraZeneca)
- - Forecast assumptions
- - Caprelsa forecast 2011–21

- Erbitux (cetuximab; Eli Lilly/Bristol-Myers Squibb/Merck KGaA)
- - Forecast assumptions
- - Erbitux forecast 2011–21

- Erivedge (vismodegib; Roche)
- - Forecast assumptions
- - Erivedge forecast 2011–21

- Gleevec (imatinib; Novartis)
- - Forecast assumptions
- - Gleevec forecast 2011–21

- Herceptin (trastuzumab; Roche/Chugai)
- - Forecast assumptions
- - Herceptin forecast 2011–21

- Inlyta (axitinib; Pfizer)
- - Forecast assumptions
- - Inlyta forecast 2011–21

- Iressa (gefitinib; AstraZeneca)
- - Forecast assumptions
- - Iressa forecast 2011–21

- Nexavar (sorafenib; Bayer Schering/Onyx)
- - Forecast assumptions
- - Nexavar forecast 2011–21

- Perjeta (pertuzumab; Roche)
- - Forecast assumptions
- - Perjeta forecast 2011–21

- Revlimid (lenalidomide; Celgene)
- - Forecast assumptions
- - Revlimid forecast 2011–21

- Rituxan (rituximab; Biogen Idec/Roche/Chugai/Zenyaku Kogyo)
- - Forecast assumptions
- - Rituxan forecast 2011–21

- Sprycel (dasatinib; Bristol-Myers Squibb)
- - Forecast assumptions
- - Sprycel forecast 2011–21

- Sutent (sunitinib; Pfizer)
- - Forecast assumptions
- - Sutent forecast 2011–21

- Tarceva (erlotinib; OSI Pharmaceuticals/Roche)
- - Forecast assumptions
- - Tarceva forecast 2011–21

- Tasigna (nilotinib; Novartis)
- - Forecast assumptions
- - Tasigna forecast 2011–21

- Thalomid (thalidomide; Celgene)
- - Forecast assumptions
- - Thalomid forecast 2011–21

- Torisel (temsirolimus; Pfizer)
- - Forecast assumptions
- - Torisel forecast 2011–21

- Tykerb (lapatinib; GlaxoSmithKline)
- - Forecast assumptions
- - Tykerb forecast 2011–21

- Vectibix (panitumumab; Amgen)
- - Forecast assumptions
- - Vectibix forecast 2011–21

- Velcade (bortezomib; Takeda/Johnson & Johnson)
- - Forecast assumptions
- - Velcade forecast 2011–21

- Votrient (pazopanib; GlaxoSmithKline)
- - Forecast assumptions
- - Votrient forecast 2011–21

- Xalkori (crizotinib; Pfizer)
- - Forecast assumptions
- - Xalkori forecast 2011–21

- Yervoy (ipilimumab; Bristol-Myers Squibb)
- - Forecast assumptions
- - Yervoy forecast 2011–21

- Zelboraf (vemurafenib; Roche/Daiichi Sankyo)
- - Forecast assumptions
- - Zelboraf forecast 2011–21

BIBLIOGRAPHY
- Journal papers
- Websites
- Datamonitor reports
- Other

APPENDIX

- Forecast methodology
- - Volume and value forecast methodology
- - Price assumptions

TABLES

Table: Definition of the targeted cancer therapies market, 2011
Table: Patent expiries for targeted cancer therapies, 2012
Table: Targeted cancer therapies market forecast in the seven major markets, by region ($m), 2011–21
Table: Targeted therapy sales in the seven major markets, by class ($m), 2011–21
Table: Key branded and biosimilar sales for the L1X3 – Antineoplastic monoclonal antibodies class in the seven major markets ($m), 2011–21
Table: Key branded and generic sales for the L1X4 – Antineoplastic protein kinase inhibitors class in the seven major markets ($m), 2011–21
Table: Key branded and generic sales for the L4A0 – Immunosuppressive agents class in the seven major markets ($m), 2011–21
Table: Key branded and generic sales for the L1X9 – All other antineoplastics class in the seven major markets ($m), 2011–21
Table: Targeted therapy sales in the US, by class ($m), 2011–21
Table: Key branded and biosimilar sales for the L1X3 – Antineoplastic monoclonal antibodies class in the US ($m), 2011–21
Table: Key branded and generic sales for the L1X4 – Antineoplastic protein kinase inhibitors class in the US ($m), 2011–21
Table: Key branded and generic sales for the L4A0 – Immunosuppressive agents class in the US ($m), 2011–21
Table: Key branded and generic sales for the L1X9 – All other antineoplastics class in the US ($m), 2011–21
Table: Targeted therapy sales in Japan, by class ($m), 2011–21
Table: Key branded and biosimilar sales for the L1X3 – A ntineoplastic monoclonal antibodies class in Japan ($m), 2011–21
Table: Key branded and generic sales for the L1X4 – A ntineoplastic protein kinase inhibitors class in Japan ($m), 2011–21
Table: Key branded and generic sales for the L4A0 – I mmunosuppressive agents class in Japan ($m), 2011–21
Table: Key branded and generic sales for the L1X9 –A ll other antineoplastics class in Japan ($m), 2011–21
Table: Targeted therapy sales in the five major EU markets, by class ($m), 2011–21
Table: Key branded and biosimilar sales for the L1X3 – A ntineoplastic monoclonal antibodies class in the five major EU markets ($m), 2011–21
Table: Key branded and generic sales for the L1X4 – A ntineoplastic protein kinase inhibitors class in the five major EU markets ($m), 2011–21
Table: Key branded and generic sales for the L4A0 – I mmunosuppressive agents class in the five major EU markets ($m), 2011–21
Table: Key branded and generic sales for the L1X9 – All other antineoplastics class in the five major EU markets ($m), 2011–21
Table: Targeted therapy sales in France, by class ($m), 2011–21
Table: Targeted therapy sales in Germany, by class ($m), 2011–21
Table: Targeted therapy sales in Italy, by class ($m), 2011–21
Table: Targeted therapy sales in Spain, by class ($m), 2011–21
Table: Targeted therapy sales in the UK, by class ($m), 2011–21
Table: Adcetris (brentuximab vedotin; Seattle Genetics/Takeda) sales, by country ($m), 2011–21
Table: Afinitor (everolimus; Novartis) sales, by country ($m), 2011–21
Table: Arzerra (ofatumumab; Genmab/GlaxoSmithKline) sales, by country ($m), 2011–21
Table: Avastin (bevacizumab; Roche/Chugai) sales, by country ($m), 2011–21
Table: Caprelsa (vandetanib; AstraZeneca) sales, by country ($m), 2011–21
Table: Erbitux (cetuximab; Eli Lilly/Bristol-Myers Squibb/Merck KGaA) sales, by country ($m), 2011–21
Table: Erivedge (vismodegib; Roche) sales, by country ($m), 2011–21
Table: Gleevec (imatinib; Novartis) sales, by country ($m), 2011–21
Table: Herceptin (trastuzumab; Roche/Chugai) sales, by country ($m), 2011–21
Table: Inlyta (axitinib; Pfizer) sales, by country ($m), 2011–21
Table: Iressa (gefitinib; AstraZeneca) sales, by country ($m), 2011–21
Table: Nexavar (sorafenib; Bayer Schering/Onyx) sales, by country ($m), 2011–21
Table: Perjeta (pertuzumab; Roche) sales, by country ($m), 2011–21
Table: Revlimid (lenalidomide; Celgene) sales, by country ($m), 2011–21
Table: Rituxan (rituximab; Biogen Idec/Roche/Chugai/Zenyaku) sales, by country ($m), 2011–21
Table: Sprycel (dasatinib; Bristol-Myers Squibb) sales, by country ($m), 2011–21
Table: Sutent (sunitinib; Pfizer) sales, by country ($m), 2011–21
Table: Tarceva (erlotinib; OSI Pharmaceuticals/Roche) sales, by country ($m), 2011–21
Table: Tasigna (nilotinib; Novartis) sales, by country ($m), 2011–21
Table: Thalomid (thalidomide; Celgene) sales, by country ($m), 2011–21
Table: Torisel (temsirolimus; Pfizer) sales, by country ($m), 2011–21
Table: Tykerb (lapatinib; GlaxoSmithKline) sales, by country ($m), 2011–21
Table: Vectibix (panitumumab; Amgen) sales, by country ($m), 2011–21
Table: Velcade (bortezomib; Takeda/Johnson & Johnson) sales, by country ($m), 2011–21
Table: Votrient (pazopanib; GlaxoSmithKline) sales, by country ($m), 2011–21
Table: Xalkori (crizotinib; Pfizer) sales, by country ($m), 2011–21
Table: Yervoy (ipilimumab; Bristol-Myers Squibb) sales, by country ($m), 2011–21
Table: Zelboraf (vemurafenib; Roche/Daiichi Sankyo) sales, by country ($m), 2011–21

FIGURES

Figure: Company-reported sales-based forecast methodology, 2012
Figure: Unevented and evented company-reported sales-based forecast, 2012
Figure: Targeted cancer therapies market forecast in the seven major markets, by region ($m), 2011–21
Figure: Sales of targeted cancer therapies in the seven major markets, by class ($m), 2011–21
Figure: Sales of targeted cancer therapies in the US, by class ($m), 2011–21
Figure: Sales of targeted cancer therapies in Japan, by class ($m), 2011–21
Figure: Sales of targeted cancer therapies in the five major EU markets, by class ($m), 2011–21
Figure: Sales of targeted cancer therapies in France, by class ($m), 2011–21
Figure: Sales of targeted cancer therapies in Germany, by class ($m), 2011–21
Figure: Sales of targeted cancer therapies in Italy, by class ($m), 2011–21
Figure: Sales of targeted cancer therapies in Spain, by class ($m), 2011–21
Figure: Sales of targeted cancer therapies in the UK, by class ($m), 2011–21
Figure: Adcetris (brentuximab vedotin; Seattle Genetics/Takeda) sales, by country ($m), 2011–21
Figure: Afinitor (everolimus; Novartis) sales, by country ($m), 2011–21
Figure: Arzerra (ofatumumab; Genmab/GlaxoSmithKline) sales, by country ($m), 2011–21
Figure: Avastin (bevacizumab; Roche/Chugai) sales, by country ($m), 2011–21
Figure: Caprelsa (vandetanib; AstraZeneca) sales, by country ($m), 2011–21
Figure: Erbitux (cetuximab; Eli Lilly/Bristol-Myers Squibb/Merck KGaA) sales, by country ($m), 2011–21
Figure: Erivedge (vismodegib; Roche) sales, by country ($m), 2011–21
Figure: Gleevec (imatinib; Novartis) sales, by country ($m), 2011–21
Figure: Herceptin (trastuzumab; Roche/Chugai) sales, by country ($m), 2011–21
Figure: Inlyta (axitinib; Pfizer) sales, by country ($m), 2011–21
Figure: Iressa (gefitinib; AstraZeneca) sales, by country ($m), 2011–21
Figure: Nexavar (sorafenib; Bayer Schering/Onyx) sales, by country ($m), 2011–21
Figure: Perjeta (pertuzumab; Roche) sales, by country ($m), 2011–21
Figure: Revlimid (lenalidomide; Celgene) sales, by country ($m), 2011–21
Figure: Rituxan (rituximab; Biogen Idec/Roche/Chugai/Zenyaku) sales, by country ($m), 2011–21
Figure: Sprycel (dasatinib; Bristol-Myers Squibb) sales, by country ($m), 2011–21
Figure: Sutent (sunitinib; Pfizer) sales, by country ($m), 2011–21
Figure: Tarceva (erlotinib; OSI Pharmaceuticals/Roche) sales, by country ($m), 2011–21
Figure: Tasigna (nilotinib; Novartis) sales, by country ($m), 2011–21
Figure: Thalomid (thalidomide; Celgene) sales, by country ($m), 2011–21
Figure: Torisel (temsirolimus; Pfizer) sales, by country ($m), 2011–21
Figure: Tykerb (lapatinib; GlaxoSmithKline) sales, by country ($m), 2011–21
Figure: Vectibix (panitumumab; Amgen) sales, by country ($m), 2011–21
Figure: Velcade (bortezomib; Takeda/Johnson & Johnson) sales, by country ($m), 2011–21
Figure: Votrient (pazopanib; GlaxoSmithKline) sales, by country ($m), 2011–21
Figure: Xalkori (crizotinib; Pfizer) sales, by country ($m), 2011–21
Figure: Yervoy (ipilimumab; Bristol-Myers Squibb) sales, by country ($m), 2011–21
Figure: Zelboraf (vemurafenib; Roche/Daiichi Sankyo) sales, by country ($m), 2011–21

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