- Published: October 2004
Global Opportunities and Markets for Chipsets Equipment and Services
- Published: April 2003
- 94 pages
- Visant Strategies, Inc
802.16/WiMAX assesses the global market for 802.16a and 802.16e hardware and
chipsets. A detailed analysis of the wireless broadband sector, 802.16’s primary market, is provided as well as an assessment of 802.16’s impact on the mobility (4G), backhaul, and private network markets. The study quantifies 802.16a and 802.16e chipsets, terminals, and infrastructure global shipments and revenues through 2008. It assesses competitive threats to the standard, including 802.20, 802.11, and proprietary technologies and projects penetration of 802.16a/e equipment within the broadband wireless access market. The study also evaluates the impact of 802.16 upon wireless mobile and fixed broadband operators and vendors.
- What penetration will 802.16 attain?
- What will be the impact of competition (802.20, 802.11, and proprietary
technologies) upon 802.16a/e?
- What role will 802.16e play within the 4G marketplaces?
- Does 802.16a/e have mass-market (business/consumer) potential?
- What will accelerate broadband wireless access deployment?
- Who is supporting 802.16a/e?
- Which version(s) of 802.16a will be implemented first?
- When will 802.16 product first ship?
- When is growth projected to accelerate?
- 802.16a/e CPE shipments and revenues
- 802.16a/e chipset shipments and revenues
- Global broadband wireless access subscribers and service revenues
- Global broadband wireless access equipment shipments and revenues
- Global broadband wireless, DSL and cable modem subscribers
- Global broadband wireless base station deployments
- Use by World Region
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1.2 Global shipments of 802.16 devices, 2002-2008
1.3 Global value of 802.16 device shipments, 2002-2008
1.4 Global shipments of 802.16 chipsets, 2002-2008
1.5 Global value of 802.16a chipsets, 2002-2008
1.6 802.16 attributes (Single Carrier, OFDM or OFDMA)
1.7 Role of proprietary systems
1.8 Why 802.16 delivers
1.9 Time to market
1.11 Fourth generation cellular and its place
802.16a and 802.16e
2.2 802.16 Variations and Background
2.2.2 Task Group A (802.16a)
2.2.3 Task Group C
2.2.4 Task Group D
2.2.5 Task Group E (802.16e)
2.2.6 802.16 and HIPERMAN
2.2.9 Market segments
2.3.3 Spectral efficiency
2.3.5 Channel sizes
2.3.6 MAC and services
2.4 Competitive Options
2.4.1 Proprietary systems
2.4.4 Other standards activity
2.5 Time to Market
2.5.3 Deployment and services
2.6.2 Base stations
2.7 Expected Market Attributes
2.7.1 Air interface
2.7.4 Other features
2.8 Chipset Suppliers, Current and Future
2.8.1 Cymil Communications
2.8.4 Radia Communications
2.8.5 RF Magic
2.8.7 Wavesat Wireless
2.9.1 Operator participation and support
2.9.2 System supplier support
2.9.3 802.16a solves the problems
2.9.4 802.16 as 4G
2.10 Market Figures
2.10.1 Global CPE shipments
2.10.2 Global 802.16 penetration
2.10.3 Global CPE revenues
2.10.4 CPE average selling price
2.10.5 Global chipset shipments
2.10.6 Global market chipset value
2.10.7 Equipment revenues
2.11.1 Role of 802.16a
2.11.2 Proprietary systems
2.11.3 Implementation and support
2.11.4 Product characteristics
2.11.5 Impending growth cycle
2.11.6 Mass-market business and consumer viability
Broadband Wireless Access
3.2 An Early History of Disappointment
3.3.1 Limited capabilities
3.3.2 High costs
3.3.3 Lack of volumes and standards
3.3.4 Over-aggressive expansion
3.3.5 Lack of differentiation
3.4.1 Technical Solutions
184.108.40.206 Adaptive beam forming
220.127.116.11 Adaptive modulation
18.104.22.168 Joint detection
22.214.171.124 Mesh networking
126.96.36.199 Spatial diversity
188.8.131.52 Spatial multiplexing
3.4.2 Business Model Solutions
184.108.40.206 Alliances with municipalities
220.127.116.11 Mobile and fixed wireless convergence
18.104.22.168 Standards implemented and followed
3.5 BWA Success Analysis
3.6.1 Frequency bands
3.6.3 March towards OFDM
3.6.4 Single carrier vs. OFDM
3.8 Supplier Analysis
3.8.1 Advanced Radio Cells, Inc (ARCi)/CoWave Networks
3.8.4 Aperto Networks
3.8.6 Beamreach Networks
3.8.8 Cambridge Broadband
3.8.11 IP Wireless
3.8.12 L3 Communications/Iospan Wireless
3.8.13 Malibu Networks
3.8.14 Mesh Networks
3.8.15 Motorola Canopy
3.8.16 Navini Networks
3.8.17 Nextnet Wireless
3.8.18 Sky Pilot
3.8.19 SOMA Networks
3.8.20 SR Telecom/Netro
3.8.21 Trango Wireless
3.9 Competitive Threats
3.10 Market Trends
3.10.1 Well-funded operators
3.10.2 Renewed interest and real opportunities
3.11 Regional Analysis
3.11.3 Latin American & Caribbean
3.11.4 Middle East & Africa
3.11.5 North America
3.12 Operator/Contract Watch
3.12.2 MMDS spectrum holders
3.12.3 MVS Communicaciones
3.12.4 NTT Communications
3.13 Market Figures
3.13.1 Global subscribers
3.13.2 Global service revenues
3.13.3 Global subscribers by region
3.13.4 Global subscribers by band
3.13.5 Global CPE shipments
3.13.6 Global value of CPE shipments
3.13.7 Global base stations deployed
3.13.8 Equipment contracts
3.13.9 Global market share
3.14.1 Modest revival
3.14.2 Market progression
3.14.3 Commercialization of technology
802.16a and 802.16e Application Markets
4.2 Broadband Access
4.2.2 Broadband by technology
4.2.3 Broadband by region
4.3 Cellular Backhaul
4.3.1 PTP radio shipments
4.3.4 Role of 802.16a
4.4 Mobility (4G)
4.4.3 Role of 802.16 in mobility
4.5 Wireless LANs, Private Networks
4.5.1 WiFi shipments
4.5.3 Role of 802.16
22.214.171.124 Value priced BWA
126.96.36.199 Private networks
188.8.131.52 Extended hot spots
Subscribers to broadband wireless services (2GHz to 11 GHz) are expected to grow from 1.9 million at year-end 2002 to 11.1 million at year-end 2008. The subscriber additions currently realized are being fueled by increased availability of fixed wireless access and improvements in the economics of most components of high-speed broadband wireless access technologies. While existing broadband wireless systems are gaining penetration within their service areas, the availability of gaining access via wireless broadband coverage is expected to increase only gradually near- and mid-term due to constraints in the capital markets. Overall, BWA (broadband wireless access) is anticipated to grow from its current 2% of the broadband access market in 2002.
1.2 Global Shipments of 802.16 Devices
Shipments of 802.16a and 802.16e devices are expected to grow from the 200,000 shipped during 2004 to millions in 2008. Despite the existence of numerous proprietary systems, 802.16a and its successor, 802.16e, are expected to gain over 50% of the market for BWA equipment by year-end 2006, although this mark could occur earlier under more favorable market conditions, as Visant showcases in an aggressive scenario. Semiconductor vendors have already released devices that demonstrate the benefits of a standard, such as a high level of integration. These products are expected to drive considerable improvements in the price vs. performance ratio of BWA equipment. The standard also has the support of vendors (Alvarion, Airspan, Wi-LAN) who account for over 70% of the installed base of BWA equipment.
1.3 Global Value of 802.16 Device Shipments
The dollar value of the 802.16a and 802.16e subscribers devices shipped during the year is expected to grow from the figure of $66 million in 2004. Aggressive pricing reductions are expected during the study period of 2003-2008 and these reductions are expected to be the result of economies of scale that will be driven by semiconductor vendors and the adoption of the 802.16a/e standard. Average pricing declines take into account that a certain percentage of the market will migrate to advanced features, such as MIMO or mesh networking, which will drive up the overall price averages. Basic devices, those that lack such features, are expected to demonstrate a steeper decline in price, much like a no-frills cell phone has during recent years.
1.4 Global Shipments of 802.16 Chipsets
Shipments of 802.16a and 802.16e chipsets are expected to grow from 200,000 units in 2004 with the Visant predictions assume a growth curve that is in lines with shipments of 802.16a/e devices themselves. Also assumed under this scenario is a slight inventory buildup and chip sets being used for infrastructure.
1.5 Global Value of 802.16a Chipsets
Chipset shipments are expected to grow from $19.1 million in 2004. Considerable price declines are expected throughout the period due to economies of scale and competition, but these will be partially offset by the inclusion of advanced features, such as MIMO (multiple-in-multiple-out), in a small percentage of products.
1.6 802.16 Attributes (Single Carrier, OFDM or OFDMA)
OFDM (orthogonal frequency division multiplexing), 256 FFT (fast fourier transform), is expected to be the widest supported variant of the standard, at least initially. Single carrier product has limited support for 2GHz-11 GHz applications and OFDMA has been deemed too expensive, though it is considered the next step. Vendors do not expect widespread implementation of MIMO and mesh capabilities, but availability will not necessarily translate into implementation. In other words, the market winner could be an OFDM device that uses MIMO or mesh capabilities. The potential pricing of such devices, though, suggests that that won’t be the case in the short term. FDD (frequency division duplexing) and TDD (time division duplexing) product will both be deployed. Existing 802.16a products generally support both. In addition, there are also a number of vendors who are clearly interested in OFDMA. A few may seek to disrupt the market by offering OFDMA before it is widely available otherwise.
1.7 Role of Proprietary Systems
Proprietary systems are expected to gain additional traction in 2003 and in 2004. Successful systems will likely influence the characteristics of 802.16a products that are implemented. However, proprietary systems are expected to be overshadowed by standard compliant product starting in 2005 or 2006. The economies of scale of a diversified, standards-based industry are expected to prove too formidable for what are now vertically integrated vendors of proprietary technologies. Competition on price points and performance is expected to become a factor when implementing the standard going forward. There are many options within the standard itself, and performance of the particular implementations of required technologies will vary.
1.8 Why 802.16 Delivers
The 802.16 standard establishes a mechanism to create economies of scale, reduce risk, and produce multi-vendor support at both the system and chip levels. These important factors will translate into improved economies of scale, better price vs. performance, and ultimately, increased penetration of broadband wireless.
1.9 Time to market
Systems vendors are expected to roll out 802.16a compliant product in 1Q to 3Q 2004. Product that has been certified for interoperability is not expected until at least 4Q 2004.
The 802.16 standard has the support of a number of leading system vendors and semiconductor suppliers, notably including Intel, Fujitsu, RF Magic, Wi-LAN, Alvarion, and Airspan. The support of these key players in their respective interests should translate into a quicker-than-most market penetration. There are clearly a number of proprietary vendors that seek to displace the standard, but commercialization of these technologies will prove difficult, as the solutions are unable to provide competitive price-points in regard to performance.
1.11 Fourth Generation Cellular and its Place
802.16a/e is not targeted to mobile carriers nor has it been adapted for operation in mobile channel and band specifications. It is expected to be deployed by “fixed” operators who will then add portability and eventually mobility to their product offerings. Most BWA operators are focused on mobile/portable data as a future application not voice. However, 802.16a could influence 4G or 802.20 (which is really 4G as well), and it could be adapted as the base for 4G, if it proves successful. These are possibilities but there are deep political entanglements in the mobile world that will be difficult to navigate for 802.16a.
802.16a is expected to extend the market for broadband wireless access due to improved support, reduced pricing, and increased performance. It is expected to account for over 50% of BWA shipments in 2005 or 2006 and customer premise equipment (CPE) pricing is expected to quickly fall to the $200/$250 level.
802.16a is 4G, but a variant of 4G that will be deployed by set of carriers who are not mobile carriers today. Mobility is unlikely to play a large role in the market for several years due to coverage limitations, and 802.16-powered operators are anticipated to focus on mobile data not voice. Shipments are expected to exceed the million units per year mark sometime in 2006, and that year may prove to be the start of accelerating growth.
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