OECD Economic Surveys: Turkey 2012
OECD Publishing, July 2012, Pages: 107
Effective macroeconomic and structural policies helped the Turkish economy rebound vigorously following the global crisis: growth averaged close to 9% in 2010-11, accompanied by strong job creation. In the process, however, the current account deficit widened to around 10% of GDP and consumer price inflation rose to over 10%. The economic slowdown since mid-2011 is helping to reduce these external and domestic imbalances, albeit only gradually, given rising international energy prices. In order to ensure that the current account gap moves back into safer territory and inflation to the 5% target, both macroeconomic and structural policy levers need to be used and action has started to be taken in this direction. This will also lay the basis for sustained improvements in living standards over the longer run.
External competitiveness is essential for Turkey to rebalance the economy from domestic to external demand, as well as to sustain employment, income and domestic savings growth. Competitiveness gains particularly improve employment opportunities of the low-skilled and hence directly help reduce poverty and foster social cohesion.
OECD's 2012 survey of Turkey's economy examines recent economic developments, policies, and prospects and takes a more detailed look at real exchange rates and competitiveness and structural reforms and growth.
Executive summary
Key policy recommendations
Assessment and recommendations.
-Turkey’s vigorous post-crisis recovery has drawn heavily on foreign saving
-The macroeconomic outlook appears relatively favourable, with risks on both sides
-Putting growth on a more balanced path
-Future growth performance will be shaped by structural policy choices
-Bibliography
-Annex A1. Past OECD recommendations on Turkey’s structural reform priorities and related national actions and plans
Chapter 1. Tackling external and domestic macroeconomic imbalances
-Bringing down the current account deficit and financing it better
-Policy options to reduce the current account deficit and inflation
-Conclusions
-Bibliography
-Annex 1.A1. The real exchange rate and the current account
-Annex 1.A2. Empirical analysis of inflation expectations in Turkey
Chapter 2. Structural reforms to boost long-term growth
-More and better jobs
-Boosting productivity growth
-Conclusions
-Bibliography
-Annex 2.A1. Long-term growth scenarios
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