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North Africa Telecommunications Report Q3 2012
Business Monitor International, August 2012, Pages: 89
The North Africa Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on North Africa's telecommunications industry.
BMI's North Africa telecoms market report contains analysis and forecasts for the mobile, fixed-line and internet sectors in four North African states: Algeria, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. The telecoms markets in the countries were affected by political upheavals in the region during 2011, some of which turned violent and resulted in the vandalisation of telecoms equipment and the displacement of a considerable number of subscribers.
Algeria has yet to see any obvious political change, although the pressure to reform certainly exists.
During 2011, the mobile market recorded strong growth, albeit below our previous expectations.
However, the delay in the licensing of 3G services and the ongoing dispute between the government and the owners of Djezzy continues to pose considerable downside risk to our growth outlook. That said, Q112 growth was better than expected and we hold to our forecasts for this market and believe there will be 39.8mn mobile subscribers by 2016, a penetration rate of 103.6%.
Tunisia's forecasts in all fields have been revised this quarter to reflect Q112 data published by the regulator and the operators. We have upgraded our mobile and broadband forecasts as both sectors recorded stronger than expected subscriber growth. However, the fixed-line sector saw further shrinkage.
3G services are expected to be one of the biggest growth areas during our forecast period through to 2016, as competition among the three operators is expected to drive subscriber growth through competitive pricing and rapid network expansion. By the end of 2016, we forecast Tunisia's mobile, fixed-line and broadband penetration rates to reach 140.7%, 9.4% and 9.1% respectively by 2016. Meanwhile, the proportion of 3G subscriptions to the total mobile market will increase from just 2% in 2011 to more than 9.5% by 2016.
Morocco is the biggest and most dynamic of the four markets in the region. Mobile penetration in Morocco is now well above 100%, but we do not expect this to hinder growth in our forecast period.
Rather we believe the main downside risk to subscriber growth expectations could be efforts by mobile operators to focus more on high value subscriber acquisition to boost their revenue.
In H212, we expect greater clarity from the Libyan government regarding policies for the telecoms sector under a more transparent dispensation. Some major regional players have expressed interest in investing in the country's telecoms sector and the new government would want to take advantage of this to attract much needed capital for rebuilding infrastructure damaged during the country's civil war in 2011.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 6
North Africa Mobile SWOT 6
North Africa Fixed-Line And Broadband SWOT 7
Risk/Reward Ratings 8
Middle East And North Africa 8
Table: MENA Telecoms Risk/Reward Ratings Q312 12
North Africa 12
Industry Forecast Scenario 14
Table: Algeria Telecoms – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 14
Table: Libya Telecoms – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 15
Table: Morocco Telecoms – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 17
Table: Tunisia Telecoms – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 18
Market Data Analysis 20
Table: Algeria Mobile Market, Q112 22
Table: Algeria – Mobile Blended ARPUs, 2010-2012 (user/month) 23
Mobile Operator Data 25
Table: Mobilis 25
Table: Djezzy 25
Table: Nedjma 26
Table: Growth Of Fixed Lines By Technology, 2002-2010 (‘000) 28
Table: Libya Mobile Market, Q112 33
Table: Morocco Mobile Market, Q112 38
Table: Maroc Telecom 41
Table: Meditel 42
Table: Wana 42
Table: Moroccan Fixed-Line Market, 2010-2012 44
Table: Tunisia – Mobile Market, Q112 49
Table: Tunisie Telecom 52
Table: Tunisiana 52
Table: Orange Tunisia 53
Table: Tunisian Fixed-Line Market, 2010-2012 55
Table: Tunisian Internet Market, 2010-2012 55
North Africa Telecommunications Report Q3 2012
Regulatory Environment & Industry Developments 58
Table: North African Regulatory Environment 58
Competitive Landscape 62
Key Players 62
Table: Key Players – North Africa Telecoms Sector 62
Company Monitor 63
Cisco Financial Performance By Theatre, H1 FY12 66
Company Profiles 67
Algérie Télécom 67
Maroc Télécom 69
Tunisie Télécom 72
Orascom Telecom 74
Wataniya Telecom 76
Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview 77
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview 77
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview 78
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview 79
Macroeconomic Data Tables 80
Table: Algeria - Core Forecasts 2010-2016 80
Table: Morocco - Core Forecasts 2010-2016 81
Table: Tunisia - Core Forecasts 2010-2016 82
Glossary Of Terms 83
Table: Glossary Of Terms 83
BMI Methodology 84
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 84
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts 84
Telecoms Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 85
Table: Ratings Indicators 87
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 88