Finland Telecommunications report Q3 2012
Business Monitor International, August 2012, Pages: 98
The Finland Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Finland's telecommunications industry.
BMI's Finland Telecommunications Market Report update for Q312 analyses the latest trends and developments in the country's mobile, fixed-line, broadband and pay-TV markets. It draws on operator data for all four markets, covering the period to the end of March 2012. It also draws on the latest data from the regulator, FICORA, which covers the mobile, fixed-line and broadband markets for 2011. The report also contains news and analysis of product and regulatory developments impacting the market.
Finland's telecommunications market is highly developed with high penetration rates and strong competition between operators and different technologies. As in markets across Western Europe, operators are facing the challenge of revenue erosion from a number of regulatory factors in the context of limited subscriber acquisition opportunities. Mobile operators' revenue declined as a result of price competition, while cuts to mobile termination rates have also contributed, with cuts in December 2011 and further cuts scheduled for December 2012.
Meanwhile, wireline operators are facing intense competition from mobile broadband services, leading to slowing growth rates. This threat is set to intensify with the acceleration of the 800MHz spectrum auction process announced in April 2012 – spectrum that is allocated to 4G networks – with the auction in early 2013. The ministry's goal is to see 4G networks available to everyone in mainland Finland by 2019. Sub-1GHz spectrum is more cost-effective to cover rural areas compared to the 2.6GHz spectrum operators are currently using for 4G LTE services, primarily in the largest urban areas. The ministry estimates that a single 800MHz bas station can cover a geographical area five times larger than a 2.6GHz base station.
On the basis of operator data covering Q112 for the mobile, fixed-line and broadband market, and regulatory data for 2011, BMI has made some minor revisions to our five-year forecasts to 2016. We have downgraded our forecast for the mobile market on the basis of lower than expected growth in Q112 and the impact of macroeconomic conditions, largely stemming from the eurozone crisis. Meanwhile, our ARPU forecast remains unchanged, with the December 2011 and December 2012 cuts to mobile termination rates already factored into our forecast.
Newly available regulatory data for the fixed-line and broadband markets for 2011 has seen revisions to BMI's forecasts. FICORA data showed the fixed-line market to have declined faster than expected – contracting by 13.6% in 2011 – although we maintain our medium-term view that the fixed-line decline will decelerate as the momentum of fixed-to-mobile substitution wanes. The broadband market forecast remained unchanged this quarter in terms of our underlying assumptions, but there was a minor downward revision to YE11 data. We maintain our view that mobile broadband will continue to be the driving force in the broadband market, with growth in fixed broadband provision stemming from consumer demand for higher capacity connections.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Finland Mobile SWOT Analysis 6
Finland Wireline SWOT Analysis 7
Finland Political SWOT 8
Finland Economic SWOT 8
Risk/Reward Ratings 9
Western Europe 9
Table: Western Europe Risk/Reward Ratings, Q312 12
Finland 13
Industry Forecast Scenario 15
Mobile 15
Table: Telecoms Sector – Mobile – Historical Data & Forecasts 15
Mobile ARPU 17
Table: Telecoms Sector – Monthly Mobile ARPU (EUR) – Historical Data & Forecasts 17
Fixed Line 19
Table: Telecoms Sector – Fixed-Line – Historical Data & Forecasts 19
Internet 21
Table: Telecoms Sector – Internet – Historical Data & Forecasts 21
Market Data Analysis 23
Mobile 23
Operator Data 25
Table: Finland Mobile Market, Q310-Q112 ('000) 26
Table: Finland Subscriber Net Additions, Q310-Q112 ('000) 26
ARPU 28
3G Services 30
4G Services 33
Mobile Network Investment 35
Mobile Contract Wins 36
Table: Mobile Contract Wins 36
Mobile Operator Data 37
Table: Market Overview 37
Table: TeliaSonera 37
Table: Elisa 38
Table: DNA Finland 39
Mobile Content 40
Regional Outlook 40
Table: Smart Meter Race Is On 44
Country Outlook 44
Value-Added Services Timeline 48
Table: Selected VAS Services 48
Fixed Line 49
Internet 52
Table: Growth Of Fixed Broadband Market By Type Of Connection, 2009-2011 (‘000) 53
Other Developments 55
FTTH 56
IPTV 56
WiMAX 58
Wireline Contract Wins 59
Table: Wireline Contract Wins 59
Regulatory Environment 60
Overview 60
Table: Finland: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities 60
Legislation 61
Interconnection And Access 62
Recent Developments 62
Wholesale Broadband Pricing 63
Competitive Landscape 65
Market Overview 65
Key Players 65
Table: Key Players: Finland Telecoms Sector 65
Company Monitor 66
Company Profiles 70
TeliaSonera Finland 70
Elisa Corporation 74
DNA 79
Finnet Group 83
Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview 85
Fixed Line 85
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview 85
Internet 86
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview 86
Mobile 87
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview 87
Table; Finland's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 89
Table: Finland's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 89
Table: Finland's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 90
Table: Finland's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 92
BMI Methodology 93
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 93
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts 93
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings 95
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 95
Table: Ratings Indicators 96
Weighting 97
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 97
Sources 97
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