Japan Commercial Banking Report Q3 2012
Business Monitor International, August 2012, Pages: 65
The Japan Commercial Banking Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, banking associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Japan's commercial banking industry.
Since Q108, we have described numerically the banking business environment for each of the countries surveyed by BMI. We do this through our Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating (CBBER), a measure that ensures we capture the latest quantitative information available. It also ensures consistency across all countries and between the inputs to the CBBER and the Insurance Business Environment Rating, which is likewise now a feature of our insurance reports. Like the Business Environment Ratings calculated by BMI for all the other industries on which it reports, the CBBER takes into account the limits of potential returns and the risks to the realisation of those returns. It is weighted 70% to the former and 30% to the latter.
The evaluation of the limits of potential returns includes market elements that are specific to the banking industry of the country in question and elements that relate to that country in general. Within the 70% of the CBBER that takes into account the limits of potential returns, the market elements have a 60% weighting and the country elements have a 40% weighting. The evaluation of the risks to realisation of returns also includes banking elements and country elements (specifically, BMI's assessment of longterm country risk). However, within the 30% of the CBBER that take into account the risks, these elements are weighted 40% and 60%, respectively.
Further details on how we calculate the CBBER are provided at the end of this report. In general, though, three aspects need to be borne in mind in interpreting the CBBERs. The first is that the market elements of the limits of potential returns are by far the most heavily weighted of the four elements. They account for 60% of 70% (or 42%) of the overall CBBER. Second, if the market elements are significantly higher than the country elements of the limits of potential returns', it usually implies that the banking sector is (very) large and/or developed relative to the general wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the country. Conversely, if the market elements are significantly lower than the country elements, it usually means that the banking sector is small and/or underdeveloped relative to the general wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the country. Third, within the risks to the realisation of returns category, the market elements (ie: how regulations affect the development of the sector, how regulations affect competition within it and the Moody's ratings for local currency deposits) can be markedly different from BMI's long-term risk rating.
Executive Summary 5
Table: Levels (JPYbn) 5
Table: Levels (US$bn) 5
Table: Levels At April 2012 5
Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections, 2012-2016 (%) 5
Table: Ranking Out Of 59 Countries Reviewed In 2011 6
Table: Projected Levels (JPYbn), 2008-2016 6
Table: Projected Levels (US$bn), 2008-2016 6
SWOT Analysis 7
Japan Commercial Banking SWOT 7
Japan Political SWOT 8
Japan Economic SWOT 9
Japan Business Environment SWOT 10
Japan Business Environment Outlook 11
Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating 11
Table: Japan's Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating 11
Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating Methodology 12
Table: Asia Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings 13
Global Commercial Banking Outlook 14
Asia Banking Regional Outlooks Overview 22
Asia Banking Sector Outlook 25
Table: Banks' Bond Portfolios 2011 25
Table: Asia Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings 26
Table: Comparison of Loan/Deposit & Loan/Asset & Loan/GDP ratios 27
Table: Anticipated Developments in 2012 28
Table: Comparison of Total Assets & Client Loans & Client Deposits (US$bn) 29
Table: Comparison of US$ Per Capita Deposits (2011) 30
Table: Interbank Rates and Bond Yields 31
Japan Banking Sector Outlook 32
Economic Outlook 35
Table: Japan – Economic Activity, 2011-2016 37
Competitive Landscape 38
Market Structure 38
Protagonists 38
Table: Protagonists In Japan's Commercial Banking Sector 38
Definition Of The Commercial Banking Universe 38
List Of Banks 39
Table: Full Japanese Bankers' Association Members 39
Table: Associate Japanese Bankers' Association Members 43
Company Profiles 45
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ 45
Table: Balance Sheet (JPYmn, unless stated), 2006-2010 47
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated), 2006-2010 47
Table: Key Ratios (%), 2006-2010 47
Mizuho Bank 48
Table: Balance Sheet (JPYmn, unless stated), 2007-2010 49
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated), 2007-2010 49
Table: Key Ratios (%), 2007-2010 49
Mizuho Corporate Bank 50
Table: Balance Sheet (JPYmn, unless stated), 2006-2010 51
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated), 2006-2010 51
Table: Key Ratios (%), 2006-2010 52
Resona 53
Table: Balance Sheet (JPYmn, unless stated), 2006-2010 54
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated), 2006-2010 54
Table: Key Ratios (%), 2006-2010 55
Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation 56
Aozora Bank 58
Table: Balance Sheet (JPYmn, unless stated), 2006-2010 59
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated), 2006-2010 59
Table: Key Ratios (%), 2006-2010 59
BMI Banking Sector Methodology 60
Commercial Bank Business Environment Rating 62
Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Indicators And Rationale 63
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 64
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