Indonesia Infrastructure Report Q4 2012
Business Monitor International, August 2012, Pages: 122
The Indonesia Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, infrastructure associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Indonesia's infrastructure industry.
BMI View: We are maintaining our 6.9% growth forecast for Indonesia's construction sector in 2012.
Although construction activity in Q112 was a strong 7.8% year-on-year (y-o-y), the reversal in conducive monetary conditions for construction activity and the poor outlook for the global economy will dampen construction activity over the rest of 2012. In addition, we see a real risk that the construction sector fails to realise its long-term growth potential, as there is a growing lack of political will to carry out the regulatory reforms required to unlock private sector investment demand. Taking this into account, we have revised down construction real growth to 7.7% (from a previous forecast of 8.2%) per annum between 2012 and 2021.
The key factors that will facilitate growth are:
- In June 2012, Malaysia's state-owned electricity utility Tenaga Nasional (TNB) signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with two Indonesian state-owned companies - utility PLN and coal miner Bukit Asam - to develop the necessary infrastructure to sell electricity from Sumatra to Peninsular Malaysia. Under the MoU, the three companies will develop Bukit Asam's mining sites in Peranap, construct a 1,200MW coal-fired power plant near the mining sites in Peranap and a 275kV subsea cable transmission line connecting Sumatra and Peninsular Malaysia. The three companies are developing feasibility studies for the three projects.
- In June 2012, it was announced that Indonesia's transportation ministry is planning to build and relocate 45 airports by 2022 in order to support the rapid development of the country's aviation industry, said the director general of air transportation at the transportation ministry, Herry Bakti S. Gumay. The project's first phase will see the construction of 24 new airports by 2017, with the rest to be ready by 2022. The first phase was initiated in 2011 and the construction of eight airports is already on track. At least IDR200bn (US$21.2mn) is needed to construct one airport, and the transportation ministry has allocated IDR3trn (US$318mn) for infrastructure construction over 2012.
- In July 2012, the Indonesian central government decided to finance the feasibility study for the US$13.9bn Sunda Strait bridge project - a 31km road and railway bridge that connects the two most populous islands in Indonesia, Java and Sumatra. The government had decided to carry out the feasibility because the consortium in charge of the project, Graha Banten Lampung Sejahtera, chose not to carry out the feasibility study after completing a US$60mn prefeasibility study in 2010. The feasibility study carried out by the government will cover construction, funding, legal issues, land availability and developments plans for the areas surrounding the bridge. The study is at the preparation stage, with the project scheduled to enter the construction phase in 2014 and be operational by 2025.
BMI Industry View 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Indonesia Infrastructure SWOT 6
Market Overview 7
MFIs Providing Finance And Reform Assistance 7
Seeking New Avenues Of Financing 8
Regulatory Changes Taking Place 9
Industry Trend Analysis 11
Launching PPPs 16
A Favourite Among Asian Economies 17
PE Participation Minimal 19
Competitive Landscape 20
Table: EQS Data 20
Building Materials 22
Global 22
Asia 25
Cement Forecasts 30
Table: Indonesia Cement Production and Consumption Data, 2009 - 2015 30
Table: Indonesia Cement Production and Consumption Data, 2015 - 2021 30
Cement Forecast Scenario 31
Industry Forecast Scenario 32
Table: Indonesia Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2008 - 2016 32
Table: Indonesia Construction And Infrastructure Long-Term Forecasts, 2013 - 2021 33
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario 35
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario 35
Transport Infrastructure 42
Table: Indonesia Transport Infrastructure Industry Data, 2008 - 2016 42
Table: Indonesia Transport Infrastructure Industry Data, 2013 - 2021 44
Transport Infrastructure Outlook and Overview 46
Table: Competitiveness Of Indonesia's Infrastructure 47
Major Projects Table – Transport 54
Table: Major Projects – Transport 54
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure 64
Table: Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Data, 2008 - 2016 64
Table: Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Long-Term Forecasts, 2013 - 2021 65
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Outlook and Overview 67
Major Projects Table – Energy And Utilities 79
Table: Major Projects – Energy And Utilities 79
Residential/Non-Residential Construction And Social Infrastructure 88
Table: Residential/Non-Residential Construction And Social Infrastructure Data 88
Table: Residential/Non-Residential Construction And Social Infrastructure Data 88
Residential/Non-Residential Building Outlook and Overview 89
Major Projects Table – Residential/Non-Residential Construction And Social Infrastructure 93
Table: Residential/Non-Residential Construction And Social Infrastructure 93
Risk/Reward Ratings 95
Indonesia Risk/Reward Ratings 95
Rewards 95
Risks 96
Regional Overview 97
Table: China, India, Indonesia - BMI interest rate views 98
Table: Emerging South East Asia - BMI Interest Rate Views 00
Table: Nearly Developed Asia - BMI Interest Rate Views 02
Table: Regional Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings 04
Company Monitor 105
PT Adhi Karya 05
PT Wijaya Karya (WIKA) 07
PT Jasa Marga 09
Global Overview 112
Table: BMI Infrastructure Index - YTD Top Performers (%) 15
Table: BMI Infrastructure Index - YTD Worst Performers (%) 15
Methodology 116
Industry Forecasts 16
Construction Industry 17
Data Methodology 17
New Infrastructure Data Sub-sectors 17
Construction 18
Capital Investment 19
Construction Sector Employment 20
Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings 20
Table: Infrastructure Business Environment Indicators 21
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