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Qatar Oil and Gas Report Q3 2012
Description:
The Qatar Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Qatar's oil and gas industry.
BMI View: Qatar sits on the world's third-largest proven gas reserves, which are concentrated in the offshore North Field. The country's robust efforts to commercialise this deposit have resulted in Qatar becoming the world's largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter. We see it sustaining this lead over the forecast period, with the successful deployment of gas-to-liquids (GTL) technology boosting its petroleum export volumes. Qatar's crude oil prospects are less exciting, as its oil reserves are modest in comparison with its Persian Gulf neighbours.
We highlight these trends and developments in Qatar's oil and gas sector:
- BMI sees Qatari gas production growing to over 190bcm by 2021. However, Qatar's gas consumption is set to rise quickly to as much as 68bcm over the same period.
- Our forecasts see gas exports peaking in 2015 at 126bcm, pending an increase in pipeline exports to the UAE and Oman through the Dolphin pipeline and/or the construction of new liquefaction trains. We believe that gas exports will remain at this rate until the end of our forecast period in 2021.
- We expect a 20% increase in oil production in the period 2011-21, with a small increase in net exports. The rise in Qatari refining capacity will boost domestic consumption of crude oil, while Qatar will also start exporting more fuels as a result of the start-up of Pearl GTL.
- We see Qatari proven oil reserves remaining broadly flat in the period 2011-21, with gas reserves declining in the same period by about 7%. Exploration successes create upside risks to these forecasts.
- The successful execution of Pearl GTL will boost Qatar's petroleum export revenues and also bodes well for feedstock supplies to Qatar's petrochemicals sector.
Qatar's dependence on oil leads to high volatility in the country's export revenues. Our assumptions of a slower growth in China, a faltering recovery in the US and a worsening eurozone debt crisis, clearly pose a threat to global oil demand. At the time of writing we are forecasting average OPEC basket oil prices to fall from US$107.05/bbl in 2012 to US$96.15/bbl in 2014, which will have a somewhat detrimental impact on the country's macroeconomic outlook. However, we emphasise that large fiscal and current account surpluses, as well as a massive stock of foreign-exchange (FX) reserves, provide the economy with a significant buffer in the event of any short-term decline in oil prices.
BMI View: Qatar sits on the world's third-largest proven gas reserves, which are concentrated in the offshore North Field. The country's robust efforts to commercialise this deposit have resulted in Qatar becoming the world's largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter. We see it sustaining this lead over the forecast period, with the successful deployment of gas-to-liquids (GTL) technology boosting its petroleum export volumes. Qatar's crude oil prospects are less exciting, as its oil reserves are modest in comparison with its Persian Gulf neighbours.
We highlight these trends and developments in Qatar's oil and gas sector:
- BMI sees Qatari gas production growing to over 190bcm by 2021. However, Qatar's gas consumption is set to rise quickly to as much as 68bcm over the same period.
- Our forecasts see gas exports peaking in 2015 at 126bcm, pending an increase in pipeline exports to the UAE and Oman through the Dolphin pipeline and/or the construction of new liquefaction trains. We believe that gas exports will remain at this rate until the end of our forecast period in 2021.
- We expect a 20% increase in oil production in the period 2011-21, with a small increase in net exports. The rise in Qatari refining capacity will boost domestic consumption of crude oil, while Qatar will also start exporting more fuels as a result of the start-up of Pearl GTL.
- We see Qatari proven oil reserves remaining broadly flat in the period 2011-21, with gas reserves declining in the same period by about 7%. Exploration successes create upside risks to these forecasts.
- The successful execution of Pearl GTL will boost Qatar's petroleum export revenues and also bodes well for feedstock supplies to Qatar's petrochemicals sector.
Qatar's dependence on oil leads to high volatility in the country's export revenues. Our assumptions of a slower growth in China, a faltering recovery in the US and a worsening eurozone debt crisis, clearly pose a threat to global oil demand. At the time of writing we are forecasting average OPEC basket oil prices to fall from US$107.05/bbl in 2012 to US$96.15/bbl in 2014, which will have a somewhat detrimental impact on the country's macroeconomic outlook. However, we emphasise that large fiscal and current account surpluses, as well as a massive stock of foreign-exchange (FX) reserves, provide the economy with a significant buffer in the event of any short-term decline in oil prices.
Contents:
BMI Industry View 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Qatar Oil and Gas SWOT 6
Global Energy Market Outlook 7
Table: Oil Production Forecasts, 2010-2016 (‘000 b/d) 7
Table: Oil Consumption Forecast, 2010-2016 (‘000 b/d) 13
Regional Energy Market Outlook 14
Qatar Energy Market Overview 18
Table: Qatar – Upstream Projects Database 19
Industry Forecast Scenario 20
Table: Qatar Oil & Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016 20
Table: Qatar Oil & Gas – Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 21
Oil And Gas Reserves 22
Oil Supply And Demand 22
Gas Supply And Demand 23
LNG 24
Refining And Oil Products Trade 25
Revenues/Import Costs 26
Key Risks To our Forecast Scenario 26
Oil and Gas Infrastructure 27
Oil Refineries 27
Table: Refineries In Qatar 27
GTL 28
Table: GTL Plants In Qatar 28
LNG Terminals 29
Table: LNG Terminals In Qatar 29
Gas Pipelines 30
Competitive Landscape 32
Executive Summary 32
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies In The Qatari Oil And Gas Sector 33
Overview/State Role 33
Licensing And Regulation 33
International Energy Relations 33
Table: Key Upstream Players 35
Table: Key Downstream Player 35
Company Monitor 36
Qatar Petroleum (QP) 36
ExxonMobil Oil Qatar 39
Total Qatar 42
Royal Dutch Shell 44
Maersk Oil – Summary 47
Occidental Petroleum – Summary 47
Qatargas – Summary 47
RasGas – Summary 48
Tasweeq – Summary 49
Sasol – Summary 49
ConocoPhillips – Summary 49
Cosmo Oil – Summary 50
Wintershall – Summary 50
GDF Suez – Summary 50
CNOOC – Summary 50
PetroChina – Summary 50
Service Companies 51
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings 53
Table: BMI O&G Risk/Reward Ratings 53
Table: BMI Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings 54
Table: BMI Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings 55
Middle East – Regional Appendix 56
Table: Oil Consumption – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d) 56
Table: Oil Consumption – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d) 56
Table: Oil Production – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d) 57
Table: Oil Production – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d) 57
Table : Refining Capacity – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d) 58
Table: Refining Capacity – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d) 58
Table: Gas Consumption – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 59
Table: Gas Consumption – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 59
Table: Gas Production – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 60
Table: Gas Production – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 60
Table: Net LNG Exports – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 61
Table: Net LNG Exports – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 61
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts 62
Glossary Of Terms 63
Table: Glossary Of Terms 63
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 65
Ratings Overview 65
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure 66
Indicators 66
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology 66
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology 67
BMI Methodology 69
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 69
Energy Industry 69
Cross checks 70
Sources 70
SWOT Analysis 6
Qatar Oil and Gas SWOT 6
Global Energy Market Outlook 7
Table: Oil Production Forecasts, 2010-2016 (‘000 b/d) 7
Table: Oil Consumption Forecast, 2010-2016 (‘000 b/d) 13
Regional Energy Market Outlook 14
Qatar Energy Market Overview 18
Table: Qatar – Upstream Projects Database 19
Industry Forecast Scenario 20
Table: Qatar Oil & Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016 20
Table: Qatar Oil & Gas – Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 21
Oil And Gas Reserves 22
Oil Supply And Demand 22
Gas Supply And Demand 23
LNG 24
Refining And Oil Products Trade 25
Revenues/Import Costs 26
Key Risks To our Forecast Scenario 26
Oil and Gas Infrastructure 27
Oil Refineries 27
Table: Refineries In Qatar 27
GTL 28
Table: GTL Plants In Qatar 28
LNG Terminals 29
Table: LNG Terminals In Qatar 29
Gas Pipelines 30
Competitive Landscape 32
Executive Summary 32
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies In The Qatari Oil And Gas Sector 33
Overview/State Role 33
Licensing And Regulation 33
International Energy Relations 33
Table: Key Upstream Players 35
Table: Key Downstream Player 35
Company Monitor 36
Qatar Petroleum (QP) 36
ExxonMobil Oil Qatar 39
Total Qatar 42
Royal Dutch Shell 44
Maersk Oil – Summary 47
Occidental Petroleum – Summary 47
Qatargas – Summary 47
RasGas – Summary 48
Tasweeq – Summary 49
Sasol – Summary 49
ConocoPhillips – Summary 49
Cosmo Oil – Summary 50
Wintershall – Summary 50
GDF Suez – Summary 50
CNOOC – Summary 50
PetroChina – Summary 50
Service Companies 51
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings 53
Table: BMI O&G Risk/Reward Ratings 53
Table: BMI Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings 54
Table: BMI Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings 55
Middle East – Regional Appendix 56
Table: Oil Consumption – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d) 56
Table: Oil Consumption – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d) 56
Table: Oil Production – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d) 57
Table: Oil Production – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d) 57
Table : Refining Capacity – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d) 58
Table: Refining Capacity – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d) 58
Table: Gas Consumption – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 59
Table: Gas Consumption – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 59
Table: Gas Production – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 60
Table: Gas Production – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 60
Table: Net LNG Exports – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 61
Table: Net LNG Exports – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 61
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts 62
Glossary Of Terms 63
Table: Glossary Of Terms 63
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 65
Ratings Overview 65
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure 66
Indicators 66
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology 66
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology 67
BMI Methodology 69
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 69
Energy Industry 69
Cross checks 70
Sources 70
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