Oman Oil and Gas Report Q3 2012
Business Monitor International, August 2012, Pages: 72
The Oman Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Oman's oil and gas industry.
BMI View: The sultanate's pioneering deployment of enhanced oil recovery (EOR) techniques will help underwrite an impressive increase in oil production over the next four years, with crude production rising more than 100,000b/d in the 2009-2014 period. Though short of gas for some of its downstream industries, the country's liquefied natural gas exports will remain a key revenue earner going forward.
We highlight these trends and developments in Oman's oil and gas sector:
- BMI sees Oman's proven oil reserves rising from 5.5bn barrels (bbl) in 2011 to 5.9bn bbl by 2013/14, but falling to less than 5.3bn bbl over the long-term forecast period to 2021. The success of enhanced oil recovery (EOR) is critical both in terms of raising estimates of recoverable oil, and in terms of oil production levels.
- Crude oil and gas liquids production in 2011 is believed to have reached 889,000 barrels per day
(b/d), with a very marginal increase likely in 2012. Medium-term investment plans point to a 2014 output peak of about 930,000b/d.
- An investment decision is likely early in 2013 on BP's Block 61 tight gas concession. The supermajor believes that there may be as much as 2,800bn cubic metres (bcm) of tight gas in place at the block, which would go a long way to reversing the long-term decline in gas production – though it would require substantial spending, an estimated US$15bn.
- Oman's attempts to boost oil production above 1bn b/d over the long term are far from assured, and the most likely scenario is for a near-term upward rise as the impact of EOR makes itself felt in the next four-five years. Gas production also faces challenges. If BP's tight gas development does not prove successful, the sultanate will struggle to secure substantial new volumes of gas for both export and domestic industries.
At the time of writing, we assume an OPEC basket oil price for 2012 of US$107.05/bbl, falling to US$99.10/bbl in 2013. Global GDP in 2012 is forecast at 2.6%, up from an assumed 3.1% in 2011 reflecting a faltering recovery in the US and an uncertain eurozone debt situation. For 2013, growth is estimated at 3.2%.
BMI Industry View 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Oman Oil and Gas SWOT 6
Global Energy Market Outlook 7
Table: Oil Production Forecasts, 2010-2016 ('000 b/d) 7
Table: Oil Consumption Forecast, 2010-2016 (‘000 b/d) 13
Regional Energy Market Outlook 14
Oman Energy Market Overview 18
Upstream Projects Database 19
Industry Forecast Scenario 20
Table: Oil & Gas – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 20
Table: Oil & Gas – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 21
Oil and Gas Reserves 22
Oil Supply and Demand 23
Gas Supply And Demand 25
LNG 26
Refining And Oil Products Trade 26
Revenues/Import Costs 26
Key Risks To our Forecast Scenario 27
Oil and Gas Infrastructure 28
Oil Refineries 28
Table: Refineries In Oman 28
LNG Terminals 28
Table: LNG Terminals In Oman 29
Gas Pipelines 29
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings 30
Table: BMI O&G Risk/Reward Ratings 30
Table: BMI Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings 31
Table: BMI Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings 32
Oman Upstream Rating – Overview 32
Oman Upstream Rating – Rewards 32
Oman Upstream Rating – Risks 33
Oman Downstream Rating – Overview 33
Competitive Landscape 34
Executive Summary 34
Table: Key Companies In Oman's Energy Sector 35
Overview/State Role 35
Licensing And Regulation 36
International Energy Relations 36
Table: Key Upstream Players 37
Table: Key Downstream Players 37
Company Monitor 38
Petroleum Development Oman (PDO) 38
Shell Oman Marketing Company 41
Oman Oil Company (OOC) 43
Occidental Petroleum (Oxy) 46
RAK Petroleum 48
CNPC 50
Oman Refineries And Petrochemicals Company – Summary 52
OOCEP – Summary 52
Total – Summary 52
BP – Summary 52
MOL – Summary 53
PTTEP – Summary 53
Petrogas – Summary 54
Tethys Oil – Summary 54
Circle Oil – Summary 55
Petroci/Rex Oil and Gas – Summary 55
Others – Summary 56
Middle East - Regional Appendix 57
Table: Oil Consumption – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d) 57
Table: Oil Consumption – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d) 57
Table: Oil Production – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d) 58
Table: Oil Production – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d) 58
Table : Refining Capacity – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d) 59
Table: Refining Capacity – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d) 59
Table: Gas Consumption – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 60
Table: Gas Consumption – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 60
Table: Gas Production – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 61
Table: Gas Production – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 61
Table: Net LNG Exports – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 62
Table: Net LNG Exports – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 62
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts 63
Glossary Of Terms 64
Table: Glossary Of Terms 64
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 66
Ratings Overview 66
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure 67
Indicators 67
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology 67
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology 68
BMI Methodology 70
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 70
Energy Industry 70
Cross checks 71
Sources 71
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