Egypt Oil and Gas Report Q3 2012
Business Monitor International, August 2012, Pages: 93
The Egypt Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Egypt's oil and gas industry.
BMI View: The advent of further political strife, relating to the presidential standoff between the military backed candidate Ahmad Shafiq and his Muslim Brotherhood opponent Mohammed Morsi, has undermined policy coherence as it relates to the country’s most significant economic sector. Now that Morsi has been confirmed as president, one thing is clear; when it comes to Egypt’s gas sector, domestic needs are going to take priority over exports, as the decision to end gas supplies to Israel confirms. This will inevitably affect the pricing climate for international oil companies operating in Egypt’s gas sector, potentially making it more of a struggle to secure internationally competitive rates when selling gas.
We highlight these trends and developments in Egypt’s oil and gas sector:
- BMI expects Egyptian oil production to decline from 637,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2012 to 578,500b/d in 2021. Consumption is expected to rise significantly, from 814,000b/d to 1.09mn b/d in the same period, quadrupling Egypt’s oil import bill in the coming years.
- We do not see any proposed refineries advancing over the forecast period, and with refining capacity remaining flat, imports of refined products are set to rise from 83,000b/d in 2011 to over 370,000b/d by 2021.
- Although gas production is expected to grow from 64.4bn cubic metres (bcm) to 86.5bcm in the 2012-2021 period, consumption will also rise significantly, from 47.6bcm to 70.3bcm. Gas exports (LNG) will rise modestly in the period up to 2015, but then gradually fall to below 14bcm by the end of the forecast period.
- The cessation of Egypt’s gas sales agreement with Israel in April 2012 will end a significant slice of piped Egyptian exports, though flows to Jordan (the main Arab Gas Pipeline customer) will likely persist, but at lower levels than in pre-2011 times.
- Much is anticipated from the newly elected (since late Q212) President Mohammed Morsi. EGPC and the other state companies will continue to push their own licensing rounds, hoping that the political challenges will not ensnare investment in upstream hydrocarbons projects
BMI Industry View 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Egypt Oil and Gas SWOT 6
Global Energy Market Outlook 7
Table: Oil Production Forecasts, 2010-2016 (‘000 b/d) 7
Table: Oil Consumption Forecast, 2010-2016 (‘000 b/d) 13
Regional Energy Market Outlook 14
Egypt Energy Market Overview 18
Table: Egypt – Upstream Projects 19
Industry Forecast Scenario 20
Table: Egypt – Oil & Gas Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016 20
Table: Egypt – Oil & Gas Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 21
Oil and Gas Reserves 22
Oil Supply And Demand 22
Gas Supply And Demand 23
LNG 24
Refining And Oil Products Trade 24
Revenues/Import Costs 25
Key Risks To our Forecast Scenario 25
Oil and Gas Infrastructure 26
Oil Refineries 26
Table: Refineries In Egypt 26
Service Stations 28
Oil Storage Facilities 28
Oil Terminals/Ports 29
Oil Pipelines 29
LNG Terminals 29
Table: LNG Terminals In Egypt 30
Gas Pipelines 31
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings 33
Table: Upstream Risk / Reward Ratings 36
Table: Downstream Risk / Reward Ratings 37
Egypt Upstream Rating – Overview 38
Egypt Upstream Rating – Rewards 38
Egypt Upstream Rating – Risks 38
Egypt Downstream Rating – Overview 38
Competitive Landscape 39
Executive Summary 39
Table: Key Players – Egyptian Energy Sector 40
Overview/State Role 41
Licensing And Regulation 41
Government Policy 41
Licensing Rounds 42
International Energy Relations 43
Table: Key Upstream Players 44
Table: Key Downstream Players 45
Company Monitor 46
Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (EGPC) 46
BP Egypt 48
Eni Egypt 50
Shell Egypt 53
BG Egypt 55
Apache Energy 57
Dana Gas 60
Edison 62
RWE Dea 64
Melrose Resources – Summary 67
Lukoil – Summary 67
ExxonMobil – Summary 67
Chevron – Summary 67
GDF Suez – Summary 67
Reliance Industries – Summary 68
Enel – Summary 68
Africa – Regional Appendix 75
Table: Oil Consumption Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (‘000b/d) 75
Table: Oil Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (‘000b/d) 76
Table: Oil Production Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (‘000b/d) 77
Table: Oil Production Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (‘000b/d) 77
Table: Refining Capacity Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (’000b/d) 78
Table: Refining Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (‘000b/d) 79
Table: Gas Consumption Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 79
Table: Gas Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 80
Table: Gas Production Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 81
Table: Gas Production Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 81
LNG Net Exports Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 82
LNG Net Exports Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 82
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts 83
Glossary Of Terms 84
Table: Glossary Of Terms 84
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 86
Ratings Overview 86
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure 87
Indicators 88
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology 88
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology 89
BMI Methodology 91
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 91
Energy Industry 91
Cross checks 92
Sources 92
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