Kazakhstan Power Report Q3 2012
Business Monitor International, August 2012, Pages: 50
The Kazakhstan Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Kazakhstan's power industry.
BMI View: Demand growth is healthy, reflecting economic expansion. Plans for new generating capacity continue to focus on conventional thermal sources, with gas taking the lead thanks to the state’s substantial domestic resources. Asian influence is growing, with China and South Korea entering the power arena. However, Russia may emerge as the partner of choice if Kazakhstan opts to bring nuclear capacity online.
In spite of Kazakhstan’s vast gas reserves, the country’s power industry is seeking to avoid overdependence on the fuel in electricity generation and has a diversified policy involving coal, hydropower and renewables. Nuclear has been side-lined, but may well emerge as a key component of the power portfolio over the long term, thanks to huge uranium wealth. System losses are considerable and improved efficiency could narrow the supply/demand gap. Ongoing high level investment in generation, transmission and distribution infrastructure is therefore necessary, and foreign partners, largely from Asia and Russia, are being lined up for the major projects.
The key trends and developments in the Kazakh electricity market are:
- Kazakhstan power consumption is forecast to average 4.3% per annum between 2012 and 2021. This represents 67% of BMI’s real GDP growth forecast (which is to average 6.4% per annum over the same period), and reflects the relative immaturity of the energy market. Growth in power generation will average 4.3% per annum over the period, which may prove insufficient to increase market coverage and ensure adequate supply, unless system losses can be reduced greatly.
- According to government forecasts, the production of electricity will increase to 150.2 terrawatt hours (TWh) by 2030 (broadly in line with BMI forecasts), with power demand rising to almost 145TWh over the same period. Existing investment plans in the power sector amount to KZT1,147bn to 2015, with an estimated KZT9,500bn needed between 2012 and 2030. The share of renewable resources in power generation is expected to rise by 11% by 2030.
- State grid operator Kazakhstan Electricity Grid Operating Company (KEGOC) has already approved a long-term investment strategy, under which KZT530bn will be invested by 2025. KEGOC has embarked upon several projects, including the rehabilitation of substations, transmission lines and other equipment, as well as building a substation near Almaty and power lines to the Moinak power plant. KEGOC is considering building a 500 kilovolt (kV) north-south power line and transmission lines in order to connect the west Kazakh regions of Uralsk, Atyrau and Mangystau to the national grid. Kazakhstan will probably delay its planned stake sale in KEGOC until 2013, according to a March 2012 statement made by Bakytzhan Sagintayev, minister of trade and economic development.
BMI Industry View 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Kazakhstan Power SWOT 6
Global Industry Overview 7
Regional Overview 14
Industry Forecast Scenario 20
Kazakhstan Snapshot (Macro) 20
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data, 2011-1021 20
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 20
Kazakhstan Forecast Scenario 21
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 21
Table: Kazakhstan Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 21
Table: Kazakhstan Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2013-2021 22
Table: Kazakhstan Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 23
Table: Kazakhstan Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2013-2021 25
Electricity Consumption 29
Table: Kazakhstan Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 29
Table: Kazakhstan Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2013-2021 29
Transmission And Distribution, Imports And Exports 30
Table: Kazakhstan Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2008--2016 30
Table: Kazakhstan Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2013-2021 30
Table: Kazakhstan Trade Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 30
Table: Kazakhstan Trade Data And Forecasts, 2013-2021 30
Key Policies/Market Structure 32
Regulation and Competition 32
Pricing 32
Key Projects Database 34
Table: Major Projects – Power Plants & Transmission Grids 34
Risk/Reward Ratings 35
Central and Eastern Europe Regional Power Risk/Reward Ratings 35
Table: CEE Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) 37
Kazakhstan’s Power Risk/Reward Ratings 39
Rewards 39
Risks 40
Competitive Landscape 41
KEGOC 41
AES 41
Glossary of Terms 43
Table: Glossary of Terms 43
Methodology And Sources 44
Industry Forecasts 44
Power Industry – Data Methodology 45
Generation and Consumption Data 45
Electricity Generation Capacity Data 46
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 46
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators 48
Sources 49
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