United States Metals Report Q3 2012
Business Monitor International, August 2012, Pages: 53
The United States Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, metals associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on United States's metals industry.
BMI View: We continue to forecast modest growth across the refined metals sector in the US as the economic recovery gains traction. Spurred on by growth in key metals-consuming sectors we anticipate refiners and metals producers will cautiously bring production back online in order to meet demand. That said, production and consumption will likely still remain below pre-crisis levels as the threat of economic weakness in China and the eurozone looms over the global economy.
We forecast relatively slow growth across the metals sector in the US between 2012 and 2016 given the uneven economic recovery. As the world's largest economy continues to gain steam following the global financial crisis, both production and consumption will improve albeit at a slow pace. The economy continues to recover from the global financial crisis. With large portions of production capacity taken offline in the wake of the economic downturn, refiners will slowly bring output back online as demand rises especially from the construction and consumer goods sectors. We believe slow but steady growth in the metals sector will roughly track broader GDP growth, which we forecast to average 2.4% over the forecast period.
Executive Summary 5
Short Term Weakness Possible As Recovery Stumbles On 5
SWOT Analysis 8
United States Business Environment SWOT 8
Industry Forecasts 9
Steel: Durable Goods Spur Slow Growth 9
Table: US Steel Production (million tonnes) 10
Table: US Steel Consumption (million tonnes) 11
Copper: Modest Growth Amid Uneven Recovery 12
Table: US Refined Copper Production (million tonnes) 12
Table: US Refined Copper Consumption (million tonnes) 13
Zinc: Modest Consumption Growth From Key Sectors 14
Table: US Refined Zinc Production ('000 tonnes) 14
Table: US Refined Zinc Consumption ('000 tonnes) 16
Aluminium: Diverse End Use Sectors Driving Growth 16
Table: US Refined Aluminium Production (mnt) 16
Table: US Refined Aluminium Consumption (mnt) 18
Macroeconomic Outlook 19
Table: United States – GDP By Expenditure, Real Growth %, 2009-2016 22
Commodities Forecast 23
Steel To Average US$500/tonne In 2012 23
Table: BMI Steel Forecasts 23
Table: Steel Price Data, (US$/TONNE) 28
Monthly Metals Update 29
Steel Prices Have Topped Out 30
Copper: Relative Outperformer But Still Weak 31
Tin To Outperform 32
Aluminium: Substantial Support Around US$1,900/tonne 33
Nickel: Oversupply Pushing Prices Lower 34
Break Of Support On The Cards For Lead 36
Zinc: Downward Trend Continues 37
Table: Select Commodities – Performance & BMI Forecasts 38
Competitive Landscape 39
Company Profiles 40
ArcelorMittal 40
Table: ArcelorMittal – Key Financial Data 43
Alcoa 44
Financial Data 47
Table: Alcoa – Financial Data 47
Nucor 48
Table: Nucor's Key Financial Data 51
BMI Methodology 52
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 52
Cross Checks 52
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