Hong Kong Retail Report Q4 2012
Business Monitor International, August 2012, Pages: 71
The Hong Kong Retail Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, retail associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Hong Kong's retail industry.
The Hong Kong Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags short-term concerns about the impact on Hong Kong’s economic outlook of falling property prices.
The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Hong Kong retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of the slowdown in the Chinese economy on the Hong Kong consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term. The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Hong Kong retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.
Hong Kong comes fourth (out of seven) in BMI’s Asia Retail risk/reward ratings, although it outperforms significantly for risk.
Among all retail categories, over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceuticals will be the outperformer through to 2016 in growth terms, with sales forecast to increase by 29% between 2012 and 2016, from US$0.29bn to US$0.37bn as locally involved companies take advantage of growth in the mainland Chinese drug market.
In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in the government’s cost-cutting initiatives, which will benefit the generic drugs sector, and the strategic framework for the prevention and control of noncommunicable diseases, which should stimulate prescription and patented segments.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
? BMI sees real GDP growth slowing to 2.2% from our previous estimate of 3.0%. The recent uptick in Hong Kong's Q411 real GDP growth is likely to reverse in the first half of 2012. Weakening external demand conditions should see Hong Kong's exports take a hit. Meanwhile, the correction in the domestic real estate market is likely to gather pace through 2012, having ramifications on consumption and investment spending.
? BMI sees private consumption growth slowing to 2.5% from 4.5%, contributing 1.5 percentage points (pp) to real GDP growth. We believe the effects of a corrective real estate market will place considerable stress on the economy, with private consumption likely to be the hardest hit. We also expect the jobless rate to rise from a 3.4% average in 2011 to 4.4% in 2012. The retail spending climate that kept private consumption well supported for much of 2011 is thus unlikely to see a repeat this year.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Hong Kong Retail Business Environment SWOT 6
Hong Kong Political SWOT 7
Hong Kong Economic SWOT 7
Market Overview 8
Key Players 9
Current Trends 11
Industry Forecast Scenario 14
Retail Growth Outlook 14
Table: Hong Kong Retail Sales Indicators, 2008-2016 14
Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segment, 2012f 16
Macroeconomic Outlook 17
Table: Hong Kong - Economic Activity 19
Regional Retail Outlook 20
Asia Pacific Retail Outlook 20
Table: Asia Pacific Retail Sales, 2009-2016 (US$bn) 20
Table: Share Of Regional Retail Sales, 2009-2016 (%) 21
Table: Asia Pacific Food Consumption, 2009-2016 (US$bn) 23
Table: Asia Pacific Macroeconomic Outlook, 2009-2016 28
Risk/Reward Ratings 29
Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Ratings 29
Table: Asia Pacific Retail Risk/Reward Ratings 29
Hong Kong’s Retail Risk/Reward Rating 30
Limits To Potential Returns 30
Risks To Realisation Of Returns 30
Consumer Electronics 32
Hong Kong Consumer Electronics Market SWOT 32
Hong Kong Electronics Industry SWOT 33
Market Overview 34
Computers 34
Table: Computers, Sales, 2009-2016 34
AV 38
Table: AV – Sales, 2009-2016 39
Mobile Handsets 40
Table: Handsets – Sales, 2009-2016 40
Industry Forecast Scenario 43
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2009-2016 44
Industry Developments 45
Automotives 47
Hong Kong Auto Industry SWOT 47
Market Overview 48
Industry Forecast Scenario 48
Table: Hong Kong Automotive Sales 48
Table: Hong Kong Auto Sector – Economic Contribution, 2011-2016 50
Industry Developments 50
OTC Pharmaceuticals 53
Hong Kong Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWOT 53
Market Summary 54
Industry Forecast Scenario 55
OTC Medicine Market Forecast 55
Table: OTC Medicine Sales Indicators 2008-2016 56
Competitive Landscape 56
Tourism 58
Hong Kong Tourism SWOT 58
Arrivals 59
Table: Arrivals, 2009-2016 59
Accommodation 60
Table: Hotel Rooms Data, 2009-2016 61
Expenditure 61
Table: Tourist Expenditure And Economic Impact, 2009-2016 62
Inbound Tourism 62
Table: Inbound Tourism, 2009-2016 64
Hong Kong Demographic Outlook 65
Table: Hong Kong's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 66
Table: Hong Kong's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 67
Table: Hong Kong's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 68
Table: Hong Kong's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 68
BMI Methodology 69
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 69
Sources 70
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