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Retail Forecasts H2 2012: UK Food & Grocery
Verdict Research Limited, July 2012, Pages: 31
A unique forecasting tool providing dynamic forecasts and analysis of market demand and price pressures. Inflation, volume and value growth are estimated quarterly to Q4 2014 to give market size and trends. This is a sector report covering the UK Food and Grocery market analysed by sub-categories - Food, Soft Drinks, Alcoholic Drinks, Tobacco and Household goods.
Create long term business plans based on how we forecast key economic metrics will evolve over the next two years Plan your pricing strategies by understanding the course inflation will take over the next two years in the food and grocery sector Develop decision making based on consumer, economic and sector specific forecasts Mitigate against the risk of continued dropping volumes caused by ongoing inflation Total retail growth for 2012 is forecast at 0.8% as a deterioration in the wider economy slows retail growth
The food and grocery sector remains one of the key drivers in growth of overall retail. Growth of 3.0% in food and grocery in 2012 is driven primarily by inflation Volumes drop into negative territory as shoppers decrease their basket size to dial out inflation.
There is increased awareness of minimising waste through buying little and often.
When will volumes in the market begin to recover? Will we see further basket size reductions?
What are the drivers of inflation in the food and grocery sector? Which product categories are hit hardest?
How can retailers address consumers price sensitivity and fulfill demand for bargain hunting?
What are the key growth sectors in the market?
Which product categories will prove most challenging?
What impact will the economy have on food and grocery retail and how should I build this into my sales forecasts?
This report provides accurate forecasts on a quarterly basis through to Q2 2014. It analyses the UK food & grocery retail sector, examining market demand and price pressures and how economic trends will impact on retail expenditure.
UK QUARTERLY FORECAST SUMMARY
A review of H1 2012 and a look ahead
UK enters technical recession
Wet weather decimates DIY
Olympic games expected to have an impact on spending
Housing market set for later recovery
Overall outlook remains tough
Percentage point difference with Total Retail
Health & beauty forecasting changes
DIY & Gardening forecasting changes
Help and tips to use the quarterly forecasts
Copying data to Excel
Inserting slides into your own presentations
Ask the analyst
Table: Principle sources of data and information
Figure: Verdict forecasting methodology
- Bank of England
- Informa plc