Indonesia Oil and Gas Report Q4 2012
Business Monitor International, August 2012, Pages: 117
The Indonesia Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Indonesia's oil and gas industry.
BMI View: Oil and gas exports form one of the key pillars of the Indonesian economy although the outlook for the sector is becoming increasingly uncertain given dwindling oil reserves in the country’s maturing fields. The government has recently put in place measures to incentivise oil companies to conduct deep-sea exploration in a bid to increase total reserves. Greater domestic consumption leading to higher imports and lesser exports will be a key trend in the years to come.
The main trends and developments we highlight for Indonesia's Oil and Gas sector are:
- We have revised up our 2016 crude oil and gas liquids production forecast from 927,800 barrels per day (b/d) to 954,060b/d due to increased production from ExxonMobil’s Cepu field, which is to reach peak production of 165,000b/d by late 2014. Associated condensate production from Total’s South Mahakam project and Chevron’s Gendalo-Gehem development will also contribute to production growth. Nonetheless, the country will remain a net importer of oil – with 2016 consumption forecast at 1.50mn b/d as domestic electricity demand in the country expands along with economic growth.
- Under current production sharing contracts (PSCs), the government takes 85% of oil production while the remaining 15% goes to the oil contractor. For deep-sea oil projects, the government is willing to decrease its stake to 65% in a bid to incentivise oil companies to conduct deep-sea oil exploration. Without the discovery of any major oil deposits, we expect the country’s proven oil reserves to decline from 4bn barrels (bbl) in 2011 to 3.62bn bbl by 2021.
- Steps are being taken to cope with rapidly rising demand for fuel and electricity. The government has been considering scrapping fuel subsidies for private cars – starting on April 1 2012 in Greater Jakarta and later for other parts of Java and Bali. However, these have been met with considerable political opposition.
- Natural gas production is expected to have hit a near-term peak of around 76.6bn cubic meters (bcm) in 2011. The country's gas consumption is on the rise and is forecast to reach 54.5bcm by 2016. We expect natural gas exports to rise slightly from 33.8bcm in 2011 to 36.4bcm by 2016.
- Production from Indonesia's East Natuna gas project is unlikely to start before 2022, and bringing the large-scale project onstream could cost up to US$40bn. The Natuna D-Alpha block is estimated to hold 1.29trn cubic metres (tcm) of recoverable gas reserves, making it the largest single gas field in Asia.
- Domestic consumption is set to drive crude oil imports to US$18.03bn by 2016 from US$12.84bn in 2011. Natural gas exports will also be diverted domestically, with exports set to decline from US$18.09bn in 2011 down to US$16.88bn in 2016.
- At the time of writing we assume an OPEC basket oil price for 2012 of US$107.05/bbl, falling to US$99.10/bbl in 2013. Global GDP in 2012 is forecast at 2.6%, down from an assumed 3.1% in 2011, reflecting a faltering recovery in the US and an uncertain eurozone debt situation. For 2013, growth is estimated at 3.2%.
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT Analysis 9
Indonesia Oil and Gas SWOT 9
Global Energy Market Outlook 10
Oil: Getting Closer To Emerging Markets Inflection Point 10
Table: Oil Consumption Forecasts, 2010-2016 (’000b/d) 12
Table: Oil Production Forecasts, 2010-2016 (’000b/d) 14
Regional Energy Market Outlook 18
Frontier Plays & Brownfields Bolster Asia's Upstream Outlook 18
Table: Number Of Rigs in Operation In Asia, 2002-2012 19
Indonesia Energy Market Overview 24
Table: Upstream Projects Database 25
Industry Forecast Scenario 26
Table: Indonesia Oil & Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016 26
Table: Indonesia Oil & Gas – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 27
Oil and Gas Reserves 28
Oil Supply And Demand 29
Gas Supply and Demand 31
Coal Bed Methane 32
LNG 33
Refining and Oil Products Trade 35
Revenues/Import Costs 36
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario 36
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 37
Oil Refineries 37
Table: Refineries In Indonesia, 2008-2016 37
Service Stations 39
Oil Terminals/Ports 39
Oil Pipelines 39
LNG Terminals 39
Table: LNG Export Terminals In Indonesia 40
Japanese LNG Supply Deals 43
Gas Pipelines 44
Regional And Country Risk/Reward Ratings 46
O&G Asia Risk/Reward Ratings 46
Table: Asia Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings 49
Table: Asia Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings 50
Indonesia Upstream Rating – Overview 50
Indonesia Upstream Rating – Rewards 50
Indonesia Upstream Rating – Risks 51
Indonesia Downstream Rating – Overview 51
Competitive Landscape 52
Executive Summary 52
Table: Key Players – Indonesian Oil And Gas Sector 53
Overview/State Role 53
Licensing and Regulation 54
Government Policy 54
Licensing Rounds 56
Table: Key Upstream Players 58
Table: Key Downstream Players 58
Company Monitor 59
Chevron Indonesia 63
ExxonMobil Indonesia 66
BP Indonesia 70
CNOOC Indonesia 74
ConocoPhillips Indonesia 77
Total E&P Indonesie 80
Medco Energi 84
Eni Indonesia 87
Salamander Energy 90
CNPC/ PetroChina – Summary 94
Petronas – Summary 94
Marathon Oil – Summary 94
Hess – Summary 94
VICO Indonesia – Summary 95
Inpex – Summary 95
Santos – Summary 96
Badak NGL – Summary 97
Serica Energy – Summary 97
AWE – Summary 97
Premier Oil – Summary 98
Others – Summary 98
Asia – Regional Appendix 100
Table: Oil Consumption – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (’000b/d) 00
Table: Oil Consumption – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (’000b/d) 00
Table: Oil Production – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (’000b/d) 01
Table: Oil Production – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (’000b/d) 02
Table: Refining Capacity – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (’000b/d) 02
Table: Refining Capacity – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (’000b/d) 03
Table: Gas Production – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 04
Table: Gas Production – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 04
Table: Gas Consumption – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 05
Table: Gas Consumption – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 05
Table: LNG Exports – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 06
Table: Net LNG Exports – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 06
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts 108
Glossary Of Terms 109
Table: Glossary of Terms 09
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 111
Ratings Overview 11
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure 12
Indicators 12
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology 12
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology 13
BMI Methodology 115
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 15
Energy Industry 15
Cross checks 16
Sources 16
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