Iran Defence and Security Report Q4 2012
Business Monitor International, August 2012, Pages: 92
The Iran Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Iran's defence and security industry.
BMI's Iran Defence & Security Report examines the country’s strategic position in the Middle East and the wider world. It provides an overview of the contemporary geopolitical challenges facing the Islamic Republic and the challenges it may face in the future.
The report examines the trends occurring in the country’s current and future defence procurement, and the order of battle across its armed forces. The report’s general conclusion is that Iran faces ever-deeper isolation from the international community, as well as a range of severe security threats, both internal and external. Internally, Islamist hardliners have cemented their grip on power even as the country’s economy runs deeper into crisis: social unrest and an Arab Spring-style uprising cannot be discounted. Iranian oil revenues have been hit hard by sanctions and also by the falling oil price; this is piling added pressure onto the country’s already-struggling economy.
Externally, the US and Israel continue to weigh up the pros and cons of attacking Iran in order to try to halt its nuclear programme. An attack during 2012 now appears unlikely; however, the build-up of US forces in the Persian Gulf means that Washington is now in a position to strike, should the Iranians follow through with their threats to block the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran also faces the possibility of losing one of its few regional allies, the Assad regime in Syria. Its relations with the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) of Arab states, led by Saudi Arabia, are extremely tense, while Tehran’s relations with Turkey also stand to suffer over its continuing support for the Assad regime, which Ankara strongly opposes.
Over the last quarter BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
- The latest military and diplomatic developments concerning Iran are discussed in detail. Though negotiations between Iran and the P5+1 countries have continued in Istanbul, the prospect of a diplomatic solution appears extremely remote. Iran’s military moves have garnered far more attention: it has threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz to any oil tanker destined for a country that abides by the sanctions against Iran; it also staged a series of ballistic missile tests in July, and warned the US that all its bases in the region would be destroyed ‘within minutes’ of any attack on Iran.
- Military developments include: the launching of a new Iranian reconnaissance satellite; the relaunching of one of the navy’s three Kilo-class submarines following an extensive refit; and the reported entry into service of a first Iranian-built version of the AH-1 Cobra attack helicopter.
- The US has also continued to build up its forces in the Middle East. This has included the deployment of additional F-22 and F-15 fighter aircraft, minesweepers and the amphibious dock ship USS Ponce. Two carrier battle groups remain in the region, with a third on standby.
- A powerful new spyware program, called Flame, has attacked Iranian computer systems (as well as those of other countries in the region). This followed the disclosure that the Stuxnet virus, which attacked computer systems relating to Iran’s nuclear programme, was of US/Israeli origin and that US President Barack Obama personally ordered the cyberattacks to continue, despite growing concerns about the virus infecting non-Iranian systems.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Iran Security SWOT 7
Iran Defence Industry SWOT 9
Iran Political SWOT 10
Iran Economic SWOT 11
Iran Business Environment SWOT 12
Global Political Outlook 13
No Respite From Political Risks 13
Global Flashpoints: Eurozone, Iran, Syria, Afghanistan, Korea 13
Table: Election Timetable 16
Wild Cards To Watch 21
Middle East Security Overview 24
The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s 24
The Middle East In A Global Context 24
Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security 25
Regional Power Dynamics 35
Nuclear Proliferation 37
External Powers 38
Scenarios For The Middle East 39
Security Risk Ratings 42
Table: Middle East And Africa Defence & Security Ratings 42
Table: Middle East And North Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 43
Political Overview 44
Domestic Politics 44
Ahmadinejad's Influence To Wane In Domestic Struggle 44
Long-Term Political Outlook 46
Regime Change Likely By 2020 46
Foreign Relations 50
Iran Nuclear Dispute Crib Sheet And FAQ 50
Security Overview 56
Armed Forces And Government Spending 61
Current Strength 61
Equipment 61
Weapons Of Mass Destruction 63
Table: Background Brief – Iran’s Nuclear Programme, 2002-2008 65
Market Overview 68
Arms Trade Overview 69
Industry Trends And Developments 71
Table: Key Players In Iran’s Defence Sector 71
Procurement Trends And Developments 72
Industry Forecast Scenario 75
Armed Forces 75
Table: Iran’s Armed Forces, 2001-2009 (’000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) 75
Table: Iran’s Defence Personnel – Manpower Available For Military Services, 2009-2016 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise 76
Government Expenditure 76
Table: Iran’s Government Defence Expenditure, 2010-2016 77
Table: Defence Expenditure Scenarios – Changing % Of GDP, 2009-2016 (US$mn) 78
Defence Trade 78
Key Risks To our Forecast Scenario 79
Macroeconomic Outlook 79
Economy To Contract as Sanctions Bite 79
Table: Iran's Economic Activity, 2011-2016 81
Company Profiles 82
International Companies 82
China Great Wall Industry Corporation 82
Sukhoi 83
Ulan-Ude Aviation Plant 84
Domestic Companies 85
Aerospace Industries Organization 85
Ammunition & Metallurgy Industries Group 86
Defense Industries Organization 87
Iran Electronics Industries 89
BMI Methodology 90
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 90
Defence Industry 90
Sources 91
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