Poland Mining Report Q3 2012
Business Monitor International, August 2012, Pages: 64
The Poland Mining Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, mining associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Poland's mining industry.
Restructuring efforts in the coal mining sector and a general lack of new base metal prospects lead us to forecast a slow decline in Poland's mining industry. We expect industry value to decline to PLN21.7bn (US$8.64bn) by 2016, an annual average decline of 2.1% from 2010 levels. Nevertheless, the country will remain one of the most significant players in the European coal, silver, and copper markets.
Having pumped large sums of money into Poland's troubled coal sector, the government has cashed in with the sale of Jastrzebska Spolka Weglowa (JSW), Poland's largest coking coal producer. Despite meeting resistance from striking workers in April 2011, the initial public offering (IPO) went ahead once terms were agreed in June. In total, the government is expecting to raise PLN5.8bn, with one-third of the company to be sold on the open market. The sharp increase of coal prices in recent year has led to renewed interest in Poland's ailing coal sector. One of the most important developments to watch out for in the coming years is the planned IPO of Kompania Weglowa, Europe's largest coal miner with a production capacity of around 48mn tonnes per annum (mntpa). The government announced in March 2012 that the IPO will ideally proceed before 2013 ends.
Dutch miner New World Resources (NWR) has received approval from its board of directors to extract coal from the Debiensko mine in Poland. A feasibility study indicates that the mine has a reserve of 190mn tonnes of coal, allowing for average annual production of 2mn tonnes. NWR expects the first coal to be extracted from the mine in 2017. Total investment in the project will reach EUR411mn, which is modest compared to typical investments in mines, and appears to be good value in our view, considering that NWR has a 50-year licence to mine the resource. NWR is also looking to mine coal at a number of additional coal seams at the site, with approval expected in 2012.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Mining Industry SWOT 7
Poland Business Environment SWOT 8
Global Mining Outlook 9
Table: Recent Tax Increases 11
Table: Largest Coal Projects 13
Table: Major Frontier Mining Projects 14
Europe Mining Sector Outlook 15
Table: Major Nordic Mining Projects 17
Table: Key Gold Projects In Eastern Europe 18
Industry Trend Analysis 19
Industry Forecasts 23
Copper: Modest Growth As Falling Grades Take Their Toll 23
Table: Poland's Copper Production 24
Zinc: Production To Be In Stasis But With Exploration Upside 25
Table: Poland's Zinc Production 27
Coal: Restructuring To Reduce Production 27
Table: Poland's Coal Production 31
Regulatory Development 32
Europe Business Environment Ratings 34
Table: Mining Business Environment Risk/Reward Ratings 35
Competitive Landscape 38
Table: Mines In Poland 39
Company Profiles 40
LW Bogdanka 40
Table: LW BOGDANKA's Financial Results 42
KGHM 43
Table: KGHM's Financial Results 45
JSW 46
Commodity Strategy 50
Monthly Metals Update 50
Table: Select Commodities – Performance & Forecasts (US$/tonne) 60
Business Environment Ratings Methodology 61
Table: Mining Business Environment Indicators 62
Table: Weighting Of Components 63
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