Saudi Arabia Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2012
Business Monitor International, October 2012, Pages: 104
The Saudi Arabia Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, pharmaceutical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Saudi Arabia's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
BMI View:
Saudi Arabia's transition to an increasingly privatised and comprehensive healthcare system will drive the demand for both patented and generic drugs. The country is investing heavily in healthcare infrastructure and we expect this will be borne out in double-digit growth forecasts across our three headline indicators.
Headline Expenditure Projections:
- Pharmaceuticals: SAR16.70bn (US$4.46bn) in 2011 to SAR18.95bn (US$5.06bn) in 2012;
+13.5% in local currency and US dollar terms. Forecast broadly unchanged from Q312.
- Healthcare: SAR78.63bn (US$21.00bn) in 2011 to SAR91.20bn (US$24.35bn) in 2012;
+16.0% in local currency and US dollar terms. Forecast broadly unchanged from Q312.
- Medical devices: SAR5.54bn (US$1.48bn) in 2011 to SAR6.53bn (US$1.74bn) in 2012;
+17.8% in local currency and US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q312.
Risk/Reward Rating:
Saudi Arabia's composite score remained steady in Q412 at 55.6. This places the country to firth place out of the 30 markets in the region. Its score is propped up by the country's wealth and a sizeable population (exceeding 28mn in 2011). Furthermore, its forecast growth rate is high due to favourable public and private healthcare investments. The government is also in the process of creating more public-private health partnerships and encouraging private health insurance uptake, which should provide momentum for drug sales.
Key Trends And Developments:
- In a quiet quarter for pharmaceutical industry developments, the government's crackdown on smoking was intensified with the announcement in July 2012 of a ban on smoking in public places that would come into force with immediate effect. The official decree bans smoking, including shisha pipes, from all government facilities and the majority of commercial areas, including restaurants, supermarkets and shopping malls. The decree also prohibits the sale of tobacco to citizens under 18.
BMI Economic View:
Assuming the survival of the current form of government into the medium term, we see ongoing strong growth and asset accumulation via real expansion in investment and exports, amid relatively high oil prices. Inflation in Saudi Arabia is unlikely to pick up substantially in the near term.
Although the economy is enjoying a cyclical boom - brought about in large part by supportive monetary and fiscal policy - the government has so far succeeded in keeping prices in check through an extensive system of subsidies, which have taken the sting out of the upside price pressure brought about by rising incomes.
BMI Political View:
Saudi Arabia was able to avoid Arab Spring-style protests by increasing economic incentives to the public, thanks to its massive oil wealth. However, we do not believe that the Kingdom will be able to head off political change indefinitely. Saudi Arabia has several of the social and demographic characteristics of Arab Spring states, and faces a highly uncertain transition of power from a septuagenarian and octogenarian generation of leaders to a younger and inexperienced cohort. It remains to be seen whether the monarchy can liberalise the country in an orderly manner or face a popular uprising calling for more dramatic change. Either way, owing to Saudi Arabia's vast oil resources and centrality in the Middle East, its future will be watched extremely closely.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Saudi Arabia Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare SWOT 7
Saudi Arabia Political SWOT 8
Saudi Arabia Economic SWOT 8
Saudi Arabia Business Environment SWOT 9
Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings 10
Table: Middle East And Africa Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings, Q412 10
Rewards 12
Risks 13
Market Overview – Saudi Arabia 14
Regulatory Regime 16
Regulatory Developments 17
Regional Regulatory Developments 18
Free Trade Agreements 19
Intellectual Property Developments 19
IP Deficiencies 20
Counterfeit Drugs 22
OTC Drug Market 23
Pricing Regime 23
Reimbursement Regime 24
Pricing System Reform 24
Tendering Procedures 25
Industry Trends And Developments 26
Epidemiology 26
Public Health Developments 27
Healthcare Sector 28
Private Healthcare Sector 29
Public And Private Healthcare Developments 30
Healthcare Professionals 32
Primary Healthcare Provision 33
Secondary Healthcare Provision 34
Health Insurance 34
Health Insurance Developments 36
Research & Development 37
Medical Device Sector 37
Medical Device Developments 39
Industry Forecast Scenario 40
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast 40
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales Indicators, 2008-2016 42
Key Growth Factors – Industry 43
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Indicators, 2008-2016 44
Key Growth Factors – Macroeconomic 45
Table: Saudi Arabia - Economic Activity, 2011-2016 51
Prescription Drug Market Forecast 52
Saudi Arabia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q412
© Business Monitor International Ltd
Page 4
Table: Prescription Drug Sales Indicators, 2008-2016 53
Patented Drug Market Forecast 54
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, 2008-2016 55
Generic Drug Market Forecast 56
Table: Generic Drug Sales Indicators, 2008-2016 57
OTC Medicine Market Forecast 58
Table: OTC Medicine Sales Indicators, 2008-2016 59
Medical Device Market Forecast 60
Table: Medical Devices Sales Indicators, 2008-2016 61
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast 62
Table: Exports and Imports Indicators, 2008-2016 63
Other Healthcare Data Forecasts 65
Key Risks To BMI Forecasts 66
Competitive Landscape 67
Pharmaceutical Industry 67
Foreign Industry 67
Domestic Industry 69
Regional Harmonisation 71
Pharmaceutical Company Developments 72
Pharmaceutical Distribution Sector 73
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector 73
Company Profiles 75
Saudi Pharmaceutical Industries And Medical Appliances Corp (SPIMACO) 75
Saudi Arabian Japanese Pharmaceutical (SAJA) 78
TABUK Pharmaceutical Manufacturing 80
Jamjoom Pharma 82
GlaxoSmithKline 84
Novartis 86
Merck & Co 88
Pfizer 90
Sanofi 92
Demographic Outlook 94
Table: Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000) 95
Table: Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 96
Table: Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 97
Table: Rural/Urban Population Split, 1990-2020 97
Glossary 98
BMI Methodology 100
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts 00
Pharmaceuticals Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 01
Ratings Overview 01
Table: Pharmaceutical Ris/Reward Indicators 02
Weighting 03
Table: Weighting Of Components 03
Sources 03
- GlaxoSmithKline
- Jamjoom Pharma
- Merck & Co
- Novartis
- Pfizer
- Sanofi
- Saudi Arabian Japanese Pharmaceutical (SAJA)
- Saudi Pharmaceutical Industries And Medical Appliances Corp (SPIMACO)
- TABUK Pharmaceutical Manufacturing
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