Brazil Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2012
Business Monitor International, October 2012, Pages: 104
The Brazil Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, pharmaceutical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Brazil's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
BMI View:
The Brazilian pharmaceutical market is still our favourite regional market in Latin America despite the recent downgrade in our Risk/Reward Ratings. The government has increasingly invested in the healthcare sector and pharmaceutical industry to stimulate local production capacity, reduce the financial burden of diseases and lessen the country's trade deficit. Multinationals can capitalise on the strong growth of the market by introducing innovative, high-tech products and collaborating with local companies.
Headline Expenditure Projections
- Pharmaceuticals: BRL42.9bn (US$25.6bn) in 2011 to BRL47.7bn (US$23.9bn) in 2012;
+11.1% in local currency terms and -6.9% in US dollars terms. Forecast up from Q312 due to more optimistic industry projections.
- Healthcare: BRL345bn (US$206bn) in 2011 to BRL378bn (US$189bn) in 2012; +9.6% in local currency terms and -8.0% in US dollars. Forecast down from Q312 due to lower macroeconomic projections.
- Medical Devices: BRL7.8bn (US$4.7bn) in 2011 to BRL8.9bn (US$4.5bn) in 2012; +14% in local currency terms and -4.5%% in US dollars terms. Forecast revised upwards from Q312 due to analyst intervention.
Risk/Reward Rating:
Brazil's position in the Americas Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Rating (RRR) system – which ranks markets according to attractiveness to multinational drugmakers – has moved from the 4th place in Q312 down to the 5th in Q412, due to a significant downward forecast change to Brazil's real GDP growth as the country's economic imbalances have begun to unwind sooner than consensus suggested. Brazil is no longer as prominent as it once was in the Latin American region, particularly now the outlook for Mexico is more optimistic. BMI's RRR ranking change between Brazil and Mexico in Q412 highlights an opportunity for multinational drug companies to re-evaluate their long-term regional strategy in Latin America if further significant changes occur.
Key Trends And Developments:
- From September 2012, a total of 25 states and federal districts in Brazil will offer a zero-tax rate on the circulation of goods and services tax (ICMS) for free hypertension, diabetes and asthma medications supplied by the Farmácia Popular (Popular Pharmacy) programme.
- In July 2012, Takeda successfully completed the acquisition of Brazilian pharmaceuticals firm Multilab. The purchase makes the Japanese multinational company a top-10 drugmaker in the world's sixth-largest economy. Multilab's operations will be incorporated into Takeda's Brazilian unit.
- In June 2012, researchers at the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation in Brazil developed the world's first vaccine against schistosomiasis. The researchers conducted clinical trials on 20 volunteers, who proved immune to infection caused by schistosomiasis (formerly known as bilharzia) after recieving the vaccine. The clinical trials confirmed the potency of the drug, whose safety and efficacy has already been tested in animals. Schistosomiasis, which is caused by flatworms of the genus Schistosoma, is prevalent in poorer nations in Africa, Central America and South America.
BMI Economic View:
Weak private consumption and industrial production data, combined with continued infrastructure project delays point to a more modest increase in economic activity during H212 than we had been expecting. As such, we have revised down our 2012 real GDP growth forecast to 1.8% from 2.4%.That said, with significant stimulus in the pipeline and construction in advance of the 2014 World Cup set to bolster growth in several sectors, we maintain our 3.7% real GDP growth forecast for 2013.
BMI Political View:
In late July, President Dilma Rousseff pledged additional stimulus measures to help boost economic growth in Brazil over the coming quarters. On a trip to London for the Olympic Games, the president alluded to forthcoming plans to reduce the cost of doing business in the country, including potential reductions in taxes on utilities, as a way to stimulate investment and boost growth. We believe such steps are necessary to bolster foreign direct investment into Brazil over the long term, particularly in the face of our forecast for a slower growth trajectory over the next few years.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Brazil Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWOT 7
Brazil Political SWOT 8
Brazil Economic SWOT 8
Brazil Business Environment SWOT 9
Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings 10
Table: Americas Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings, Q312 10
Brazil – Market Summary 13
Regulatory Regime 14
Intellectual Property Environment 15
Counterfeits 17
Compulsory Licensing 18
Pricing Regime 19
Reimbursement Regime 20
OTC Regulations 21
Advertising 22
Industry Developments 24
Epidemiology 24
Healthcare Sector 26
Healthcare Sector Funding 27
Research And Development 27
Biotechnology 28
Clinical Trials 31
Medical Devices Market 31
Medical Device Industry – Recent Developments 33
Medical Device Distribution 33
Industry Forecast Scenario 34
Overall Market Forecast 34
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales Indicators 2008-2016 35
Key Growth Factors – Industry 36
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Indicators 2008-2016 37
Table: Healthcare Governmental Indicators 2008-2016 38
Table: Healthcare Private Indicators 2008-2016 38
Key Growth Factors – Macroeconomic 40
Prescription Drug Market Forecast 46
Table: Prescription Drug Sales Indicators 2008-2016 47
Patented Drug Market Forecast 48
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators 2008-2016 49
Generic Drug Market Forecast 50
Table: Generic Drug Sales Indicators 2008-2016 53
OTC Medicine Market Forecast 54
Table: OTC Medicine Sales Indicators 2008-2016 55
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast 56
Table: Exports and Imports Indicators 2008-2016 58
Medical Device Market Forecast 59
Brazil Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd
Page 4
Table: Medical Devices Sales Indicators 2008-2016 60
Other Healthcare Data 61
Key Risks To our Forecast Scenario 61
Competitive Landscape 62
Pharmaceutical Industry 62
Top 20 Pharmaceutical Companies In Brazil By Sales In 2010 62
Innovative Drugmakers 63
Innovative Drugmakers – Recent Developments 63
Generic Drugmakers 64
OTC Sector 66
Pharmaceutical Distribution Sector 67
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector 68
Company Profiles 71
Aché/Biosintética 71
EMS Sigma 74
Eurofarma 76
Medley 78
Cristália 80
Sanofi 82
Pfizer 84
Merck & Co 86
Novartis 88
GlaxoSmithKline 90
Roche 92
Demographic Outlook 94
Table: Brazil's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 95
Table: Brazil's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 96
Table: Brazil's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 97
Table: Brazil's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 97
Glossary 98
BMI Methodology 100
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts 100
Pharmaceuticals Business Environment Ratings 101
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 101
Ratings Overview 101
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators 102
Weighting 103
Table: Weighting Of Components 103
Sources 103
- Aché/Biosintética
- Cristália
- EMS Sigma
- Eurofarma
- GlaxoSmithKline
- Medley
- Merck & Co
- Novartis
- Pfizer
- Roche
- Sanofi
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