West and Central Africa Infrastructure Report Q4 2012
- ID: 2254342
- September 2012
- Region: Africa, Central Africa
- 59 pages
- Business Monitor International
The West and Central Africa Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, shipping associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on West and Central Africa's shipping industry.
BMI View: Although high oil prices should, in theory, boost Gabon’s infrastructure environment, there has, in practice, been a lack of investment, shown through the country’s exports. Very few new projects have been announced and this has resulted in minimal year-on-year (y-o-y) growth rates. We forecast real growth of just 1.6% y-o-y in 2012, shrinking to just 0.08% in 2013. Industry value is expected to rise from US$0.58bn in 2012 to US$0.63bn in 2016.
The key developments in Gabon’s infrastructure sector are:
- The African Development Bank (AfDB) Group, through its private sector window, approved a loan of EUR57.5mn to the Coder Hydropower Project for the design, construction and operation of two run-of-river hydro projects in Ngounie Province and North Gabon. The project consists of two run-of-river hydroelectric power plants, a 70MW plant in the Ngounie Province and a 52MW plant in north Gabon. Despite a high electricity access rate of up to 83%, the Gabon electricity sector still faces frequent electricity shortages and blackouts resulting from high urbanisation.
- President Bongo Ondimba launched the Emerging Gabon, which is described as a ‘strategy to create an emerging economy’, based on three main pillars: Green Gabon, Industrial Gabon and Service-oriented Gabon. Green Gabon aims to help the sustainable development of the country’s ecosystem: 22mn hectares (ha) of forest, 1mn ha of arable land, 13 national parks and 800 kilometres of coastline. Industrial Gabon will promote the local processing of raw materials,
exports of high value-added products and the diversification of the national economy. Serviceorientated Gabon will develop the country’s human resources in order to become a regional leader in financial services and new information technologies.
The Gabonese Democratic Party (PDG) of President Ali Bongo Ondimba has won all six seats contested in by-elections across the country. The poll was called after a judge found that results from the December 2011 legislative election were unreliable, due to fraud. Foreign observers believe that the last election was systemically biased in favour of the president's party, and most opposition parties boycotted the election.
BMI View: Although still largely underdeveloped Ghana shows potential based on a relatively strong business environment and growing interest in foreign investment. Transport and energy projects are expected to grow as the oil & gas industry in the country expands. We forecast year-on-year (y-o-y)
growth of 10.7% in 2012 for the country’s construction industry, with an average of 8.5% y-o-y growth anticipated between 2012 and 2016. Construction industry value is expected to stand at US$3.2bn in 2012, rising to US$5.4bn by end-2016.
The key developments in the sector are:
- Abu Dhabi National Energy Company (TAQA) was granted financial assistance of US$355mn, as well as government approval, to expand its power plant in Ghana. TAQA is 75%-
owned by the Abu Dhabi government and is aiming to expand the capacity of its Takoradi 2 power plant from 220MW to 330MW. The power plant accounts for 15% of Ghana's installed power production capacity.
- The Ghana Highways Authority has announced that construction work on the 10km road between Techimantia and Akomadan has begun. The road aims to improve the local economy by facilitating the transportation of food produce to the region's major commercial centres. The project is due to be completed by December 8 2013.
-China Communications Construction Company (CCCC) has shown an interest in investing in projects to expand roads, railways and harbours in Ghana. The company will receive assistance from the China Development Bank (CDB), the China Exim Bank and other foreign financial institutions for the implementation of the projects.
Tensions are rising in Ghana as the ruling NDC and opposition NPP gear up for the December 2012 presidential and parliamentary elections. At this stage, it is too close call the outcome of the polls. The NDC stands to gain from incumbency advantages and the perception that it deserves another four years in power, while the NPP is campaigning for votes by criticising the NDC's management of the economy and pledging to renegotiate contracts with Chinese companies.
We are sanguine on Ghana's growth prospects for the 2012-2021 period and forecast annual real GDP growth to average 6.5% over our 10-year forecast period. The ramping up of domestic oil production will provide significant impetus to the economy, allowing the mitigation of fiscal and current account drags. SHOW LESS READ MORE >
BMI Industry View 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Gabon Infrastructure SWOT 7
Ghana Infrastructure Industry SWOT 7
Market Overview 8
West Africa Competitive Landscape 8
Table: Domicile and Number of Contractors In West Africa, 2011 8
Building Materials 12
Regional Overview 15
Cement Forecasts 21
Table: Gabon Cement Production and Consumption Data, 2008 - 2016 21
Table: Gabon Cement Production and Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2013 - 2021 21
Table: Ghana Cement Production and Consumption Data, 2009 - 2016 22
Table: Ghana Cement Production and Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2014 - 2021 22
Industry Forecast Scenario 23
Table: Gabon Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2008 - 2016 23
Table: Gabon Construction And Infrastructure Long-Term Forecast, 2013 -2021 23
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario 23
Table: Ghana Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2009 - 2016 25
Table: Ghana Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data Long-Term Forecast, 2014 - 2021 25
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario 26
Transport Infrastructure 27
Regional Transport Infrastructure Outlook And Overview 27
Major Projects Table – Transport 29
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure 35
Regional Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Outlook And Overview 35
Residential/Non-Residential Construction and Social Infrastructure 38
Regional Residential/Non-Residential Building Outlook And Overview 38
Risk/Reward Ratings 43
Regional Overview 43
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings 45
Gabon’s Risk/Reward Ratings 45
West & Central Africa Infrastructure Report Q4 2012
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Ghana’s Risk/Reward Ratings 46
Global Overview 48
Table: BMI Infrastructure Index - YTD Top Performers (%) 51
Table: BMI Infrastructure Index - YTD Worst Performers (%) 51
Industry Forecasts 52
Construction Industry 53
Data Methodology 53
Capital Investment 55
Construction Sector Employment 56
Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings 56
Table: Infrastructure Business Environment Indicators 58